Times change, countries rise and fall.

　　The rise and fall of a country is driven by long-term factors as well as accidental events. At present, during the epidemic period we are experiencing, the performance of the United States lacks global leadership, and the over-issuance of the US dollar has once again made people question its status as an issuer of abuse reserve currency. The newly released International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, and it fell to 60.89% at the end of 2019, the lowest in recent years, and the proportion of RMB is 1.96%.

　　We often follow Bridgewater Dario’s point of view. He believes that in the "great cycle" of national strength, the status change of reserve currency is the slowest. Before that, the change of national strength was already taking place. By studying the long-term history of many countries, we can reveal the most important influencing factors of the great cycle of national strength.

　　What are these factors? We share with you Dario’s recent articles published in LinkedIn.

　　This article will explain the essential motivation behind the rise and decline of the strongest country in history. This is the essence of the law that I showed when I studied the dynasty changes of the past three reserve currency countries: the Netherlands, Britain and the United States, and six other important powers: Germany, France, Russia, India, Japan and China in the past 500 years. Besides, I also specially studied all the generational changes in China since the Tang Dynasty. In addition to seeing the transfer of wealth and power, we have also seen changes in all aspects of daily life such as science and technology, culture and art. These individual case studies will be elaborated in detail in Part 2. When we switch back and forth between historical cases and the underlying paradigm, we can see how these cases show the underlying paradigm (Fit the archetype) and how the paradigm I summarized can describe the actual situation of these historical cases well (the law reflected by the paradigm will be exactly the sum average of historical events).

　　As I mentioned above, the most important task of this article is to show you the eternal and universal operation law behind the world as much as possible and use it for me. For me, this process makes me feel obligated and full of energy. As I mentioned in my previous article, my curiosity and anxiety about the world prompted me to uncover the law behind it, but when I really did research, the whole process brought me a much grander picture of the world than I expected. In my opinion, all this reveals more clearly how people and countries have risen and weakened for thousands of years. Behind these ups and downs, there is a huge cycle that goes hand in hand, but I never realized all this before.

　　Although the grand picture I will show you is my independent view, readers, I also need to declare to you that I can’t show you this picture without help from all sides. It comes not only from my hard study in the past 18 months, but also from my deep discussion with top scholars and doers, a lot of hard reading of historical works with profound insights in the past, and the hard research of top research teams, combined with my investment experience in the global scope in the past 50 years. With so much help, it takes courage, humility and continuous efforts to explain the law of the rise and fall of great powers in history, and there is no guarantee that everything I say is correct. However, I am sure that most of what I said is right, and I also understand that this law gives me a strong ability to predict the future, and I can predict scenes that we have never seen in my life, because these things have been happening repeatedly in the historical process of social development. My goal is to make all this clear to you after my hard research and practice, so that it can be used by you.

　　01

　　Study the screening principles of countries

　　Let me make it clear first that the big country we study is not necessarily the country with the best living standard. There are two reasons: first, although wealth and power are what most people pursue, some people and some countries do not think these things are the most important and will not consider fighting for them. For example, some people think that having a peaceful and fulfilling life is more important than having a lot of wealth and power. They don’t pursue wealth and power constantly, so they are not the object of study. Secondly, the countries studied do not include the so-called "boutique countries" (such as Switzerland and Singapore), which have high wealth and living standards, but are not large enough to become big countries.

　　How do people acquire wealth and power?

　　Let’s look at the big picture. Throughout the well-documented history, various forms of people (such as tribes, kingdoms, countries) have either created themselves or obtained wealth and power from others. When they gather more forces than any other organization, they become the world’s leading forces and then determine the world order. When they lost that power (as every big country did in the past), wealth, power and world order changed greatly, which had a great impact on economy, market and all aspects of life. In this chapter, we will study how many forces jointly determine the ups and downs of this cycle, so as to regularly make the wealth and power of big countries rise first, then maintain, and then decline (Causing the archetypal empire’s wealth and power to rise, be sustained, and then decline).

　　With the passage of time, the development of society and the improvement of productivity, the world’s total wealth, total rights and living standards have been continuously improved. In the whole human society, the gains from learning always outweigh the losses. Although due to the differences in education level, work ability and scientific and technological development level, different people’s learning productivity has increased at different speeds. Knowing this, those in power can make better policies and make the country develop better; Investors and company managers can therefore decide how to make better investments. Although the improvement of learning ability and productivity level is of great significance, they are constantly innovating, so they are not the cause of major changes in people with wealth and power.

　　The sharp fluctuation of wealth and power is caused by many factors, although I have identified 17 influencing factors, the most important of which is the currency and credit cycle. These powerful forces usually come together in classical cycles, which tend to form a very large ups and downs cycle in a complementary way and appear repeatedly throughout history. This huge archetypical cycle controls the rise and fall of empires, which affects everything, including their currencies and markets. Like the archetypical debt cycle I outlined in Debt Crisis-My Coping Principles, this cycle paradigm represents a typical debt cycle that we can compare with other debtors, including the debt cycle we are in now. Knowing this, we can try to get a glimpse of the future through the gap.

　　At the time of writing this article, we see that all these 17 forces are at work, and the most important ones are the debt cycle, the gap between the rich and the poor cycle and the global geopolitical cycle. As mentioned in the previous article, we recently lowered the interest rate to 0% during the economic downturn, and at the same time carried a lot of debts. This has led to a large number of government debts, and central banks are printing money for monetization. At the same time, there is a huge gap in politics and values between countries, and the emerging world power (China) is challenging the current world power (the United States). Although this situation has never happened in our life, it has happened many times in history (the most recent one happened in 1930-45). I will explain to you in this article that we are now experiencing an archetypal big shift in relative wealth and power, and with this change, we will witness the profound changes in the world order that have affected all countries.

　　The reason why the transfer of wealth and power between countries is often overlooked is that although it is rapidly forming, it has not suddenly appeared. This neglected but obvious thing shocked us. Most people don’t pay attention to the laws of history, so they can’t accurately understand our current situation. Therefore, in this article, I will describe in a very concise way how I view the archetypical mechanics behind the rise and fall of big countries and their market operations.

　　In order to see the whole picture of historical changes, you can’t get too entangled in details.

　　If I want to show you all this huge picture called "the changes of human history", then I can’t concentrate on presenting every detail. Similarly, as an appreciation of the scroll, please understand this and try to look at it from a macro and divergent perspective. This is because we are trying to understand and appreciate the evolution and changes that span a long period of history. In order to see these changes, we have to ignore some details. Of course, when we should stop and pay attention to the details (some specific details are very, very important), I will switch from macro narrative to micro-description, so that we can take a closer look at these details.

　　Examining what happened in the past from the grand perspective of human historical changes will fundamentally change the way we look at things. For example, many things we take for granted, many words we blurt out, did not exist in most historical periods. Therefore, I will try my best to present the whole historical picture to you vividly, but I won’t get entangled in all the details of history. However, in the cases we studied, I will present you with relatively complete details.

　　For example, we should carefully understand the differences between different countries, kingdoms, nations, nations, tribes, empires and dynasties. Nowadays, we mostly talk about (sovereign) countries, but it is well known that sovereign countries did not appear until the 17th century after the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Generally speaking, there was no modern country before that, only the kingdom could be seen. But in some places today, the kingdom still exists, and the boundaries with sovereign countries are unclear, and some places have both. Generally speaking, the kingdom is the smallest, the country is the second, and the empire is the largest, and the relationship between them is not clear. Britain was a kingdom at first, then evolved into a sovereign country, and finally became an empire whose borders extended beyond England, so that its leaders could control a vast area and many non-Anglo-Saxon people.

　　Similarly, each type of political entity (such as country, kingdom, tribe and empire) controls population in different ways, which puzzles those researchers who strive for perfection. In some cases, empire refers to the area occupied by the ruling power; Sometimes it refers to those areas that are influenced by the ruling power through threats and inducements. The British empire occupied the territory of the empire in general, while the United States controlled more countries by relying on the "carrot+stick" strategy. Although this is not entirely correct, at the time of writing, the United States has military bases in 70 countries, so it is obvious that there is an "American empire", but what it refers to is controversial. Anyway, I hope readers understand what I mean: trying to be precise in words may hinder me from conveying more important information. So in this article, you will have to put up with my ubiquitous uncertainty. You also need to understand why I collectively refer to these political entities as countries, even if it is not technically the case.

　　Some people may think that it is impossible for me to compare different countries and different systems at different times. I can understand this view, but I assure you that I will try my best to explain any differences, but the similarities between eternity and universality in history far outweigh the differences. It is extremely sad to let differences prevent us from seeing the laws of history clearly.

　　03 historical change and the cycle that goes hand in hand.

　　As mentioned above, the long-term progress of mankind depends on constantly doing things better, that is, improving productivity. In the long run, learning and constantly improving productivity is the most important force; Although economic cycle fluctuation is also important in the short term, it cannot change the long-term trend. The chart below shows the changes of global per capita production value (estimated real GDP) in the past 500 years, which can also illustrate this point.

　　Estimates of global GDP per capita in the past 500 years (based on 2017 US dollars, taking logarithm)

　　From this top-down perspective, we can observe that the growth rate of global per capita output was very slow in the early days, but the slope of the growth curve suddenly became steep around 1800, reflecting the rapid improvement of production efficiency. Such changes have benefited from the improvement of the education level of the whole people and the transformation of educational achievements into productive forces. This change is caused by many factors, which can be traced back to the invention of the printing press in Europe in the mid-15th century (China used it very early), which improved the knowledge and education level of more people and contributed to the Renaissance, the scientific revolution, the Enlightenment and the first industrial revolution in Britain.

　　The popularization of education has also shifted wealth and power from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy. In the agricultural economy, monarchs, nobles and churches jointly own land and make profits from it; In the industrial economy, capitalists create and own the means of production, and together with the (secular) government, they maintain a system that enables them to make profits and take power for a long time. In other words, this system has been operating since the industrial revolution; In this system, wealth and power come from the combination of educational resources, innovative ability and capitalist system, and are controlled by those in power and those who control capital and educational resources.

　　However, behind the track of relatively steady increase in productivity, it is a turbulent era that witnessed prosperity and depression and experienced revolution and war. However, these turbulent periods are still weak relative to the long-term progress trend, so they only show a weak swing in the chart. These swings seem intense to us as individuals, but only because our lives are short and small.

　　Take the Great Depression and the war between 1929 and 1945 as an example. For us, these 17 years have been long and full of shock. The following chart reflects this period (economic situation), which is taken from the above line chart (reflecting the 200-year change). As you can see, GDP per capita fell by about 10% during the Great Depression, and then recovered, while the US stock market fell by 85%. The Great Depression was followed by World War II, which increased the production of munitions. However, due to the destruction of a large number of means of production, it is inaccurate to call this period "the era of mass production", even on a per capita basis. At the end of the war, the global per capita GDP dropped by about 12%, a large part of which was caused by the economic collapse of the defeated countries.

　　It can be seen that between 1929-1933 and 1944-46, the global per capita GDP dropped by 10% and 12% respectively.

　　Although the first chart I showed reflects the productivity of the world (to the best of our ability), it does not show the transfer of wealth and power between countries. The chart below shows the relative wealth and national strength of 11 world powers in the past 500 years. This wealth and power index is calculated by eight indicators, which I will introduce in detail later. Even though these data are not accurate due to the age, they still perfectly reflect the macro trend. As you can see, almost all big countries have experienced a period of rise and decline. Thick lines are the four most important big countries: the Netherlands, Britain, the United States and China, which have respectively mastered the three recent reserve currencies in history. It is the present tense for the United States, the past tense for Britain, and earlier for the Netherlands. I mention China because it has grown into the second most powerful country and remained so powerful for most of the time before 1850.

　　Medium-short period evolution

　　The chart shows: 1. Although China’s position declined sharply after the 19th century, it has been in a dominant position for centuries (always surpassing Europe in commodity trade); 2. As a relatively small country, the Netherlands became the greatest empire in the world in the 17th century. 3. Britain followed the Dutch model and reached the peak of its national strength in the 19th century; 4. In the end, the United States surpassed several countries and remained a world power for 150 years, especially after World War II and the war. Today, China is catching up.

　　The next chart dates back to 600 AD. In order to make the chart look simple, I included 500 years in the above chart. Although 11 countries, 12 major wars and a long history of 500 years can hardly be described as "simple". Long-period evolution

　　As the picture shows, 1500 years ago, China was almost always the most powerful, although the Arab Empire, French Empire, Mongolian Empire, Spanish Empire and Ottoman Empire also rose.

　　How do we measure the wealth and power level of a country?

　　In the first two charts, I measure the wealth and national strength of countries, which is basically obtained by averaging eight indicators. They are 1. Education; 2. Competitiveness; 3. the level of science and technology; 4. Economic output; 5. Trade share; 6. Military strength; 7. Strength of financial center and 8. Reserve currency. We will further discuss the measure of power later, but let’s focus on these eight key elements first.

　　Taking the year when China became the world’s largest country as the origin, we list the changes of various indicators in each of the 120 years before and after. The following table is the average data of many countries, but most of the weights are given to three countries with reserve currencies (namely, the United States, Britain and the Netherlands).

　　Paradigm law

　　These charts tell a good story about how great powers rise and fall. I will introduce other factors later, but before I do, let me briefly introduce the cycle. The first thing to note is that all these indicators are curved before and after the rise of great powers, because these indicators always complement each other. That is, the advantages and disadvantages in education, competitiveness, economic output and world trade share can be logically transformed into other advantages or disadvantages. For example, well-educated people will create a more innovative, competitive and productive society.

　　I call this up-and-down swing of national strength "the great cycle". Please pay attention to the order in which these factors influence each other, because it reflects the process of the rise and fall of big countries. For example, education is always the leading indicator, but the change of reserve currency status is long overdue. This is because a strong education will bring advantages to most fields, including creating the most widely circulated currency in the world. Like the common language in the world, habit will amplify the strength of money itself and make it circulate more permanently.

　　04 great cycle

　　Broadly speaking, we can divide the rise and decline of empire into three stages: 1. The rise stage is characterized by gaining competitive advantage; 2. In its heyday, the country maintained its strong strength, but gradually laid a bitter fruit for losing its competitive advantage; And 3. In the weak stage, the self-strengthening mechanism in all aspects of the country has declined.

　　In short, a country can only go uphill when it has the following characteristics:

　　1. Strong and promising leadership: the premise of all successful elements.

　　2. Good education: including teaching knowledge and skills.

　　3. Rock-solid virtues, civic literacy and strong professional ethics: they are passed down through school and family education, and help civil society achieve the following achievements, such as:

　　Low corruption rate and high respect for social rules such as the rule of law.

　　People can not only unite, but also have a consensus on why they need to unite: when a group of people with abundant knowledge, advanced skills, good virtues and good civic literacy unite, they will create:

　　4. A good resource allocation system, and can …

　　Attracting the best talents in the world is the most important condition for a country to succeed, and then, this country will …

　　6. gain strong competitiveness in the international market, so that the national income far exceeds the expenditure, which contributes to

　　7. Strong income growth helps …

　　8. Increase investment in infrastructure, education and research and development, so as to obtain

　　9. Higher production efficiency: the improvement of production efficiency means the simultaneous improvement of productivity and wealth level. When the country’s production efficiency is high enough, they can invest and exhibit:

　　10. New technologies: These new technologies will have commercial or military value; As these countries become more competitive with the above factors, they will

　　11. Take more shares in the national trading system: this makes it necessary for them to establish:

　　12. Powerful military force: protect trade routes and expand its influence on other countries. With their economic advantages, they have developed into the world’s leading …

　　13. financial center, which can gather and finance capital: (Amsterdam was the world financial center when the Dutch empire dominated the world; After Britain replaced it, London became a financial center; And new york’s status now comes from the hegemony of the United States. But China is also developing its financial system with Shanghai as the center.) These expanding empires have …

　　14. Strong stock, currency and credit markets: The currencies of countries that dominate trade and capital flows naturally become the first choice for trading media and wealth reserves, and develop into reserve currencies. According to this logic, when the Dutch empire dominated, the Dutch guilder was the global reserve currency; During the British Empire, the pound inherited this status. When the US dollar became the global reserve currency in 1944, the United States was only one step away from winning World War II, and it was obviously in a leading position in economy, finance and military affairs. Using a country’s currency as a reserve currency will naturally give the country stronger borrowing and purchasing power. As shown in the above figure, the opportunity for a country to gain or lose its status as a global reserve currency is much later than its other strengths.

　　Through unremitting efforts and other complementary factors, the empires achieved their rise and maintained their national strength. The founders of those empires coordinated economic, political and military strength, and built an economic-political-military system that constantly benefited from the international community. The Dutch founded the Dutch East India Company, Britain founded the British East India Company, and the United States had a military-industrial complex. Facts have proved that this kind of economic, political and military cooperation is essential to the expansion of the empire.

　　However, the development of the empire always has its platform period, which is because behind the success of the country’s rise, it also lays the groundwork for future weakness. Specifically, it includes:

　　During the boom, people’s income increased, making labor more expensive; Compared with countries with lower wages for the same job, competitiveness naturally declines.

　　The development model of the most successful countries will be imitated by emerging competitors, and shine on you is often superior to Blue, which makes the leaders lose their competitive advantage. During the British-Dutch hegemony, the labor cost of British shipyards was lower than that of the Netherlands; Therefore, the former chose to hire Dutch engineers to design ships with higher cost performance than the Netherlands. Because the cost of time and money required for copying is less than that of invention and creation, other things being equal, emerging empires hitchhike in mature countries through copying.

　　In those countries that are born rich, people will reduce their workload and engage in more leisure and low-productivity activities; In extreme cases, it becomes decadent and incompetent. Especially when the backbone of society changes from a generation that must work hard to succeed to a generation that inherits wealth, the younger generation is often fragile and inexperienced, and it is more likely to be defeated when confronted with challenges. As time goes by, people in these prosperous societies are more eager to pursue a leisurely and luxurious life, so they do not hesitate to lose their strength, create bubbles, and finally become more vulnerable.

　　The richest and most powerful countries have the status of global reserve currency, which gives them the privilege of borrowing a lot, so that they are caught in a debt trap. A large number of loans have enhanced the consumption power of hegemonic countries in the short term, but in the long run it is just the opposite. In other words, when lending and consumption are strong, hegemonic countries seem to be strong, but their financial strength is eroded. This lending model enables domestic people to over-consume, and provides funds for expanding the army and launching wars to enhance forces other than basic national strength. This model can be maintained for a period of time, even self-strengthening, thus increasing the interest return of creditor countries, thus enhancing the status of reserve currency.

　　When rich countries borrow money from developing countries, it is also one of the early signs of wealth transfer. In the 1980s, the per capita income of the United States was 40 times that of China, but at that time, China had begun to buy US Treasury bonds because the US dollar was the global reserve currency. At the same time, it also became the starting point for China to catch up with the United States. Similarly, Britain borrowed heavily from much poorer colonies during World War II; The Netherlands did something similar before its national strength went downhill, but when the creditors refused to hold and sell the Dutch guilder, the Dutch debt structure collapsed instantly, and its monetary status and economic situation plummeted. The United States has also borrowed a lot of money and reduced its debt by issuing more money, but this has not shaken the status of the dollar and the US debt for the time being.

　　When the number one power keeps "expanding its territory" until it is no longer worthwhile to maintain it, the cost of maintaining the system becomes higher than the income. The unprofitable global power system will further hit its financial situation, as is the case in the United States today.

　　Because of unequal distribution, the success of economic development naturally widens the gap between the rich and the poor. Those who have wealth and power (such as those who profit from business activities or those in the government) take care of each other and maintain a system that is beneficial to them, while ordinary people lag far behind until the polarization between the rich and the poor has become intolerable injustice. The same is true in the United States today.

　　The foreshadowing of decline is always buried in the golden age, and the prosperous country will gradually decline in the downward trend. This decline is due to the fact that when the country is going downhill, the power that can compete with it has developed relatively in the above-mentioned fields.

　　When the national debt is high, the central bank can only make ends meet in the face of a weak economy, and the downward state leads to more debt and economic problems, the country has to print a lot of money and devalue its currency.

　　If the gap between the rich and the poor widens infinitely, social values are polarized, and economic pressure (no matter where the pressure comes from) cannot be released, it will be easy for the rich and the poor to fight, and the initial conflicts will intensify later. This usually encourages political extremism, that is, populism of reformists (people who try to redistribute wealth) and conservatives (people who want wealth to be in the hands of rich people such as capitalists). Both democratic and centralized countries may become the soil of populism.

　　When the rich are worried that their wealth will be taken away, or they will become the target of public criticism, they will transfer their wealth and life to places, assets or currencies that they think are safer. If this transfer is not explicitly prohibited, it will erode the tax and income of the place where the assets are transferred out, making it experience a typical vicious circle of asset hollowing out. Shrinking tax revenue is even worse, aggravating the tense situation, increasing tax revenue, forcing more rich people to leave, and other worse consequences. For example, we now observe that the root of some social problems is that the rich have fled the state with higher taxes because they don’t want to face the financial pressure and the gap between the rich and the poor. When the hollowing out of assets is too serious, the government will come forward to stop it-it is forbidden to continuously collect funds from the lost places to their new places, assets or currencies, and people who want to protect themselves will feel panic.

　　Events that shake the foundation will devour the country’s productive forces. The size of the wealth cake is a little smaller, and people are fighting for shrinking resources; The cake is drying up day by day, and people are fighting over how to distribute it. Populist leaders of different camps are clamoring hard in the wrestling, hoping to control the situation and reorganize the order. At this time, democracy is particularly precarious compared with centralization. This is why in the 1920s and 1930s, Germany, Japan, Italy and Spain (as well as some small countries) were all centralized and pulled out the flag of the democratic camp, while the major democratic countries (the United States, Britain and France) also had the shadow of centralization. It is generally believed that in chaotic times, centralized and rapid decision-making is preferable to democratic decision-making based on discussion. Therefore, when the mass struggle against discipline and resorting to violence appears, the movement is not without merit.

　　If a country has strong enough economic, geopolitical and military forces to challenge the existing dominant forces, then there are many potential conflicts between these competing powers. Because there is no system for peaceful adjudication of such disputes, conflicts have to be resolved through a head-on contest.

　　When the cost of maintaining the image of a big country is greater than the income it brings, the economic strength of the country is hollowed out. At the same time, other countries are on the rise, and the big countries that are already strong in the outside world do not want to give away their interests. This state will make a strong country face economic and military threats. In order to maintain its status as a big country, military spending has been expanding again and again, but the domestic economy has been depressed, making it more difficult for leaders to collect taxes and making them need more domestic support. Seeing this dilemma, the enemy countries have chosen to strike at the beginning of the signs of the decline of great powers. Then, the big countries will face the difficult choice of facing or retreating economically and militarily.

　　If other external shocks, such as natural disasters (plague, drought or flood), occur in a fragile period when big countries are struggling to cope with internal and external troubles, it is tantamount to injecting another destructive force into the process of national decline.

　　It is also a problem when the number of people in a country who are vegetarian is not enough for the country to win in this cycle. Of course, since each leader is only responsible for a short part of this cycle, they can only solve problems on the basis left by their predecessors, which means that the National Games can control everything better than the leaders.

　　In a word, due to the improvement of productivity, cakes are constantly expanding, and some cycles have emerged.

　　The construction period of the country’s peak. Due to:

　　1. Relatively low debt level

　　2. Relatively small wealth, value and political views gap.

　　3. People work together to create prosperity.

　　4. Good education and infrastructure

　　5. Competent leadership.

　　6. A peaceful world order led by one or more major powers.

　　When it flourished and declined, the country went to a period of deconstruction and reorganization. The reason for the country’s prosperity has gone to the opposite side and turned into a fatal weakness:

　　1. High debt

　　2. A huge gap in wealth, value and political views.

　　3. The cooperation between nationals broke down and they turned to attack each other.

　　4. Backward education and infrastructure

　　In order to maintain the state of over-expansion, great powers have gone through a painful period of struggle, destruction and reorganization under the challenge of new rising forces, which has given birth to a new order and laid the foundation for the coming of a new era.

　　Generally speaking, the 17 characteristic indicators in the figure below are the main forces driving the rise and fall of a country. For any country, the more each feature deviates to the left, the greater the possibility of its rise; The more you shift to the right, the greater the possibility of weakness. World powers tend to show more left-leaning characteristics, and under a virtuous circle, they continue to become stronger; However, if the management is not good, each characteristic index will shift to the right, and the country will go weak. At this time, new competitors can take the opportunity to rise, properly manage each characteristic index, and gradually the situation of strength has changed.

　　17 factors affecting the rise and fall of a country

　　In short, this is the reason why the rise and decline of great powers occur periodically. Now, I want you to do a little exercise: think carefully about whether the position of each characteristic index is to the left or to the right for the country/region you are interested in. What about the United States and China? What other countries are there? Make a judgment based on your intuition and compare it with my idea later. I will make a more systematic analysis of the characteristic indicators of these big countries later.

　　These positive and negative factors are actually intertwined and affect each other, bringing great changes to society. It is no coincidence that the huge gap between the rich and the poor, the debt crisis, the revolution, the war and the changes in the world pattern almost happened at the same time. The following picture outlines the history of the rise and fall of every big country very clearly. As shown in the shaded area in the figure below, the destruction and reorganization caused by depression, revolution and war have largely destroyed the old system and laid the foundation for the emergence of new systems. These great depressions often occur every 10 to 20 years, but there may be more variables in this time period. Followed by a beautiful new world, no country is willing to compete with the world hegemon for the top spot, and well-behaved people begin to work and develop harmoniously. Usually, these beautiful periods can last for 40 to 80 years, but there will be great fluctuations. In the above two big cycles, there are also some small cycles, such as short-term debt crisis/business cycle, which last for 7 to 10 years.

　　Reserve currency cycle

　　For example, the decline of a Dutch power gives way to a British power, or Britain gives way to the United States. Most of the following things will happen in this process:

　　Debt restructuring and debt crisis are internal conflicts in countries, which eventually lead to the redistribution of wealth, the collapse of the status of foreign war reserve currency and the collapse of a new generation of domestic and international order

　　The last Great Depression occurred in 1930-45, which promoted the reconstruction period that began in 1945. More specifically, the collapse and reorganization of the monetary and credit system led to the depression in 1930-45, which led to the establishment of a new global monetary system (Bretton Woods system) based on the dollar in 1944. The huge gap between the rich and the poor in the Roaring 20s narrowed due to depression and war, which led to a fundamental change in the distribution of wealth and rights, and the global war also changed the world pattern. After 1945, everything has undergone earth-shaking changes. The United States became the world hegemon, the gold standard shifted, and a global monetary and credit system based on the dollar was established.

　　Translator’s Note: This refers to the 1920s in the western context, which was a period of sustained economic prosperity. In the past ten years, it covered countless exciting events, so some people called it "the most colorful era in history".

　　In this new world dominated by the United States, the United States has taken the lead in wealth, economic strength and military strength. It is the richest country with 80% of the world’s gold reserves; It is a country with the highest economic strength in the world, and its production capacity accounts for half of the world’s output; It is also a military power with absolute advantages, monopolizing nuclear weapons and having the most powerful conventional forces. However, after 75 years, the world pattern has also undergone fundamental changes, which we will discuss further in the following chapters. At that time, we will also try to predict and interpret the possible future development direction.

　　Next, we will study each indicator more carefully. In the last chapter, I will summarize all these indicators and carefully infer how to make our future better in view of our current situation. In the second part, I will make a detailed interpretation of each country’s case.

　　[1] Short-term cycle evolution chart

　　As for the above figure, these indexes consist of many different statistical data, some of which can be directly compared, while others are only an estimate. The data in some countries are always discontinuous, so different data need to be spliced together. It should be noted that the line shown on the chart is the 30-year moving average of these indexes, and I have adjusted it, so there will be no lag. The moving average is chosen because it is less volatile and can filter out a lot of noise, making the direction of the big period clearer. For a longer-term interpretation, I will use these curves smoothed by the moving average; On the contrary, for some more detailed interpretations, the unprocessed curve may contain more information.

　　[2] Chart of Paradigm Law

　　Regarding the above figure, we show the relationship between these key indicators and history by anchoring specific time periods in history. The value "1" on the Y axis represents the peak value of this indicator relative to history, and "0" represents the bottom. The X-axis, that is, the time axis, is displayed in units of years, where "0" roughly represents the time when many indicators of the country reach the peak. In the rest of this section, we will introduce the stages of paradigm law in more detail. As for the indicator of global reserve currency, we will focus on China. Although it has been a big country for centuries, its currency has never become a global reserve currency. The reasons behind this are worthy of our further study.

　　(A global M&A investment transaction information manager at your fingertips)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Yijie DealGlobe. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

　　BEIJING, Beijing, March 3 (Reporter Li Jinlei) the State Council recently issued the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan to Promote Equalization of Basic Public Services", which listed the basic public services in eight areas, including social insurance. Take a look at this list of social security services and see what changes will happen to your social security benefits in the next few years.

　　Reasonable adjustment of pension standards

　　In terms of basic old-age insurance for employees, the list is clear, and basic pensions, including basic pensions and personal account pensions, will be issued, and transitional pensions will be issued to the insured who participated in the work before the reform and retired after the reform, and a reasonable adjustment mechanism for basic pensions will be established.

　　In terms of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, the list is clear, and basic pensions and personal account pensions are issued. At present, the minimum standard of basic pension determined by the state is 70 yuan per person per month. According to the economic development and price changes, a reasonable adjustment mechanism for the basic pension level will be established.

　　"Establishing a scientific normal adjustment mechanism for treatment is an important guarantee to ensure that insured people share the fruits of economic and social development reasonably." The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that in terms of old-age insurance, according to factors such as economic development, income growth, price level and affordability in all aspects, the normal adjustment mechanism of old-age insurance benefits will be gradually established and improved, and the basic pension for retirees and the basic pension standards for urban and rural residents will be improved in a coordinated and orderly manner to stabilize the treatment expectations of the insured.

　　Increase the proportion of individual contributions to medical insurance for urban and rural residents

　　The plan proposes to improve the stable and sustainable financing and reimbursement ratio adjustment mechanism of basic medical insurance, formulate a three-year government subsidy plan for urban and rural residents’ medical insurance, appropriately increase the proportion of individual contributions while raising the government subsidy standard, and gradually link individual contributions with the income level of urban and rural residents.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that residents’ medical insurance adopts a financing method combining individual contributions and government subsidies, and the government will subsidize individuals who have difficulties such as subsistence allowances. In recent years, the financial subsidy standards at all levels have been raised year by year. In 2016, it was raised to not less than 420 yuan per capita, and it was proposed that individual contributions should be raised to not less than 150 yuan.

　　The above-mentioned person in charge said that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the financing level of medical insurance will be scientifically determined by further improving the financing methods and channels, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism organically related to economic growth, residents’ income and medical expenses will be gradually formed to clarify the responsibilities of the government, units and individuals, form a reasonable financing structure, realize the stable and sustainable operation of the medical insurance system, and better safeguard the rights and interests of the broad masses of the people.

　　Maternity and medical insurance are combined.

　　The plan proposes to combine maternity insurance with basic medical insurance. The reporter of Zhongxin. com noted that the General Office of the State Council recently issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Pilot Program for the Combination of Maternity Insurance and Employee Basic Medical Insurance, and decided to carry out two pilot projects for the implementation of insurance merger in 12 cities including Handan City, Hebei Province, with a pilot period of about one year.

　　It is understood that the combined implementation of the two insurances will not reduce the maternity insurance benefits of the insured employees. With the improvement of the mutual aid ability of the fund, it will also help to better protect the benefits of the insured. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will sum up the pilot experience in a timely manner and determine the ideas and steps for full implementation, which will be promoted throughout the country during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.

　　The service standard in the list shows that the fund pays the medical expenses and maternity allowance during the maternity period, and the maternity allowance is calculated according to the average monthly salary of the employees in the previous year.

　　Strive to achieve social security benefits from different places and direct settlement.

　　The plan proposes to issue and apply social security cards in an all-round way, with the card population coverage rate reaching 90%, realize social security one-card system, support the cross-business, cross-regional and cross-departmental application of social security cards, establish a social security card application platform and cover a wide range of card terminal environments.

　　With regard to the renewal of social insurance relations, the plan proposes to establish a social security management information system with unified standards and nationwide networking, improve and simplify the renewal process, implement online certification and online renewal, and strive to realize the nationwide collection and direct settlement of social insurance benefits in different places, so as to facilitate the floating employment and living in different places for insured workers, unemployed and retirees.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that the relevant handling procedures should be constantly standardized, the functions of the social insurance relationship transfer and connection information system should be improved, and the rational flow of labor force should be promoted. Actively promote the settlement of medical treatment in different places, and solve the urgent need for qualified personnel to directly settle hospitalization expenses in different provinces, so that it will no longer become a pain point for the masses.

CCTV News:On June 7th, "News Network" reported the latest data of China’s foreign trade import and export, the foreign exchange reserves in May, the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds and other new achievements and new progress. The growth of various data is gratifying, and the vigorous development vitality is being displayed in many fields. The foundation of China’s "stable" economy is constantly consolidated, and the momentum of "progress" is gradually emerging.

China’s foreign trade continues to consolidate.

In the first five months of this year, China’s import and export of goods increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the positive momentum of foreign trade continued to consolidate.

According to customs statistics, in the first five months of this year, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade was 17.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.

Among them, the export was 9.95 trillion yuan, up 6.1%. Specifically, the export momentum of high-end, intelligent and green products was good, and the export of ships, electric vehicles and household appliances increased by 100.1%, 26.3% and 17.8% respectively. Imports were 7.55 trillion yuan, up 6.4%, of which imports of intermediate goods were 6.07 trillion yuan, up 7.4%.

In May, the import and export volume was 3.71 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. The growth rate was 0.6 percentage points higher than that in April.

Customs statistics show that in the first five months of this year, China imported and exported 8.31 trillion yuan to countries that jointly built the Belt and Road Initiative, an increase of 7.2%, accounting for 47.5% of the total import and export value.

In the first four months, China’s total service import and export increased by 16.8% year-on-year.

In the first four months of this year, China’s service trade continued to grow rapidly, with the total import and export of services reaching 2,431.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%. Among them, trade in knowledge-intensive services continued to grow. 1— In April, the import and export of knowledge-intensive services was 963.72 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year. The areas with rapid growth included intellectual property royalties, personal culture and entertainment services. In addition, travel services have grown rapidly. 1— In April, the import and export of travel services reached 660.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.6%, making it the largest field of service trade.

In May, the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves was $3,232 billion.

According to the latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in May, the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves was US$ 3,232 billion, up US$ 31.2 billion from the end of April, with a steady increase.

Ministry of Finance: 30-year ultra-long-term special government bonds were issued for the first time on the 7th.

On June 7, the Ministry of Finance renewed the issuance of 30-year ultra-long-term special government bonds in 2024 for the first time, totaling 45 billion yuan. According to the issuance arrangement, the bonds issued this time are 30-year fixed-rate interest-bearing bonds, with a total issuance of 45 billion yuan and coupon rate accounting for 2.57%.

The first Central Asian route of domestic passenger plane ARJ21 was opened.

On June 7th, China’s self-developed jet regional aircraft ARJ21 took off from Xinjiang Airport and headed for Tajikistan, which was also the first Central Asian route for ARJ21. Up to now, ARJ21 aircraft has operated a total of 549 routes and safely transported more than 13 million passengers.

A three-year marine garbage clean-up operation was launched in coastal cities.

On June 7, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and other four departments jointly issued the Action Plan for Marine Garbage Cleaning in Coastal Cities, proposing to carry out a three-year dragnet cleaning operation in 65 bays of coastal cities across the country, requiring that by 2025, the density of floating garbage on the sea surface will drop significantly, and there will be no obvious large areas of marine garbage.

　　Just after the Spring Festival in 2024, bank consumer loans were in full swing and "involution" was upgraded. The reporter visited the investigation and found that many banks launched consumer loan products with a quota as high as one million, an interest rate as low as 3% and a term as long as 10 years. Compared with the previous limit of 200,000-300,000 yuan for bank consumer loans, is the era of "one million per capita" consumer loans coming?

　　The publicity is wonderful.

　　But can you get a loan?

　　In 2020, financial consumer Ba Le bought a house. Due to the high mortgage interest rate at that time, last year he emptied his pocket and paid back part of the mortgage in advance. However, this year, faced with life events such as marriage, the consumer demand is large, and Ba Le feels that money is tight. As a result, he turned his attention to the large-scale consumer loans launched by many banks, intending to use this product to tide over the difficulties temporarily.

　　After comparison, he first aimed at a pure credit consumer loan product of a joint-stock bank. According to the introduction, the product can be loaned up to 1 million yuan, with a maximum term of 10 years and an annualized interest rate as low as 3.3%. Ba Le filled in personal information on the mobile banking APP, and soon passed the examination, and saw his loan amount-150,000 yuan. He was somewhat disappointed. It turned out that the amount of this product was comprehensively evaluated according to the customer’s credit score, income level, repayment ability and other factors, and not everyone could get a loan of 1 million yuan.

　　Ba Le tried another unsecured and unsecured consumer loan product advertised by another bank, with a maximum loan of 500,000 yuan, a maximum term of 5 years and an annualized interest rate as low as 3%. However, operating in mobile banking step by step, he found that to enjoy the preferential interest rate of this product, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive evaluation in the banking system and receive the corresponding interest rate coupons according to the evaluation scores.

　　He checked, his evaluation score is 10000 points, and he can only get a 4% interest rate coupon, while to get a 3% interest rate coupon, his evaluation score must reach at least 17000 points. He was a little depressed. It turned out that the interest rate of this product was comprehensively evaluated according to the customer’s activity, assets and income, financial management and trading habits, provident fund social security and other factors, and not everyone could enjoy the interest rate of 3%.

　　Bank manager:

　　It is unrealistic for ordinary customers to want to borrow millions.

　　Is a large consumer loan a publicity stunt or a live ammunition?

　　As a financial consumer, the reporter visited and investigated, and found that the millions of large-scale consumer loan products that were hotly marketed by many banks, although advertised with the slogan of high quota and low interest rate, in fact, these products all have their own thresholds and restrictions, which are not easy for everyone to obtain. Its main customer groups are "white list" customers of invited units such as civil servants, institutions and large state-owned enterprises, as well as specific customer groups such as customers who apply for mortgage loans in the bank, high-quality and high-asset customers, new citizens and senior talents, and most products have certain requirements for provident fund and social security payment base and years.

　　Generally speaking, the amount of consumer loans available to ordinary customers is still around 200,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan, and interest rates may also rise.

　　For example, a joint-stock bank has launched a "golden loan" product. According to the publicity, the maximum credit line of this product can reach 2 million, the lowest annualized interest rate is 3.45%, and the longest credit period is 36 months. Pure credit is unsecured, and you can enjoy interest first and then principal for two years. The reporter inquired about the detailed description of this product and learned that the audience of this product is the high-quality customers of the invited units of the bank, and set access conditions for customers’ age, credit history and financial strength. The reporter called the bank and learned that if this product wants to obtain a large amount of credit, it must first have requirements for the customer’s unit, and in addition, it must be comprehensively considered according to the customer’s income and debt level.

　　For another example, in order to meet the consumption demand of high-level talents and promote the financial empowerment talent chain, Bank of China Qingdao Branch innovatively launched the "Talent Consumption Loan", which is the first unsecured and unsecured pure credit loan for high-level talents in Shandong Province. Among them, the highest credit amount for Class A talents, Class B talents, Class C talents and Class D talents in the high-level talent classification catalogue is 2 million yuan, 1.5 million yuan, 1 million yuan and 800,000 yuan respectively.

　　In addition to big banks and joint-stock banks, small and medium-sized banks have also laid out large-scale consumer loan products. For example, Shenzhen Rural Commercial Bank launched a "consumer e-loan" for domestic individuals working and living in Shenzhen, with a maximum amount of 1 million yuan and a minimum annual interest rate of 3.6%. There is also a "job-sharing loan" with a maximum amount of 1 million yuan, which is based on the customer’s work unit. Only public officials, state-owned enterprises, bankers, listed companies, private hospitals or school personnel can apply.

　　In addition, compared with the eastern coastal areas, banks in the western region are relatively more cautious in approving consumer loan lines. The reporter visited many banks in the western region and found that the amount of consumer loans was mostly between 200,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Almost every bank takes the customer’s unit, the deposit of "five insurances and one fund" and other factors as the preconditions for calculating the amount of consumer loans and interest rates. Even at a branch of the Postal Savings Bank, the credit manager directly calculated the approximate credit line based on the deposit base of the provident fund without asking for other information.

　　Large sum and low interest:

　　To meet the corresponding evaluation conditions

　　As mentioned above, if you, like Ba Le, are interested in large-scale consumer loans and want to apply for these products, you need to pay attention to the following points:

　　A large amount of money is not available to everyone. Different banks have different application conditions and approval criteria. Generally, they will examine the customer’s credit score, income level, repayment ability, work unit, mortgage situation and other factors, and comprehensively evaluate the customer’s loan amount according to these factors. It doesn’t mean that the maximum amount of publicity is the amount you can borrow. It is very likely that you can only borrow a small part, or even not. Therefore, we should reasonably evaluate the loan demand according to our actual situation.

　　In addition, it should be noted that the application conditions and interest rate concessions of various banks are not the same, so we should pay attention to careful screening. For example, it must be a new customer, a quality customer, a "white list" customer, etc. If these conditions are not met, you will not be able to enjoy the corresponding "increase" and "cut interest rates". Therefore, financial consumers should not only look at the advertisements of banks, but also pay attention to reading detailed product descriptions and compare their own conditions with those of which bank, so as to save capital costs and meet consumer demand.

　　Banks should do a good job

　　Balance between risk control and attracting customers

　　Why do banks intensively launch "large-value, low-interest" consumer loan products? What are the advantages and disadvantages of such products for banks, consumers and regulatory authorities? What is the interest rate trend and development space of large-scale consumer loan products of banks in the future? In this regard, the reporter interviewed a financial expert from the regulatory department.

　　He believes that for banks, the introduction of large-scale consumer loan products is not only to cope with market competition, improve their business growth and profitability, but also to meet customers’ greater capital needs, especially in the peak consumption season such as the Spring Festival, which can stimulate consumption, stimulate domestic demand and promote economic growth.

　　"But large consumer loans are also a" double-edged sword ",and the amount has increased, which means that once there is a breach of contract or illegal capital flow, it will have a greater impact on the bank’s asset quality and reputation. In particular, do consumer loans really flow to consumption? For consumer loan funds that illegally flow into the stock market and the housing market, corresponding measures should be taken in time. " He reminded that banks should strike a balance between risk control and attracting customers, strictly control the qualifications and uses of customers, strengthen post-loan management, closely monitor the flow of funds, and find and deal with risks in time.

　　For consumers, large-value consumer loan products can better meet consumer demand and improve the quality of life. At the same time, we should also pay attention to whether they really need it, although the quota has increased. Can the repayment pressure caused by blind excessive borrowing be tolerated? In addition, we should also pay attention to comparing the product conditions and interest rates of different banks and choose the appropriate repayment methods and plans. "Generally speaking, the repayment method of equal principal and interest is suitable for people with stable cash flow, and the repayment pressure is shared equally every month, while interest before interest is suitable for people with one-time income at periodic points, such as large bonus income."

　　It is worth noting that during the reporter’s visit, a bank lobby manager specially suggested that customers should come to outlets or apply for large-scale consumer loans in mobile banking. Do not trust credit intermediaries to avoid capital damage or pay higher costs.

　　For the follow-up development space of this kind of products, the expert said that on the one hand, the customer’s demand preference is the main driving force of the bank’s large-value consumer loan products, and the product iteration depends on whether the customer has greater consumer demand, higher consumption quality and more consumption scenarios. On the other hand, the bank’s risk control and innovation ability are the main constraints of the bank’s large-scale consumer loan products. "The risk is controllable, the product is optimized, and the demand is strong. If these conditions are met, the large-scale consumer loan products will have the possibility of sustainable development."

　　According to national business daily

　　According to the news of China Weather Network, since June 16th, the high temperature weather in China has exploded. Looking at the map of China, from Shaanxi and Henan in the north to Anhui and Shanghai in the middle, and then to Fujian and Guangdong in the south, at least 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities are in high temperature. According to He Lifu, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, this is the largest range of high temperature weather in China this year, and the Central Meteorological Observatory also issued the first high temperature warning this year on the 17th.

He Lifu, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, was interviewed by Zhao Qian Photography on the 19th.

　　Large-scale, long-term and high-temperature continuous baking in China

　　Up to now, high temperature has been steaming China for three consecutive days, and at least 14 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities including Shaanxi, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong, etc., all experienced high temperature weather exceeding 35℃.

　　"The hottest places are Chongqing, Henan and Hubei. The high temperature is 37 to 39 C, and the local temperature is over 40 C." He Lifu concluded that the high temperature in Chongqing has lasted for 4 days, which is a typical example of severe and lasting heat. Yesterday, the highest temperature in Chongqing was 41.4℃, a record high this year, making it the hottest day in the same period in June since 1962.

　　In response to the largest range of high temperature weather this year, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a high temperature warning for three consecutive days on the 17th, and all localities also launched active responses. It is understood that the high temperature in Lian Qing has caused some students in Chongqing to have mild heatstroke symptoms. Some primary and secondary schools have taken high temperature leave since the 18 th and suspended classes in the afternoon; In Xi’ an, from the afternoon of the 17th, the cool air-raid shelter was opened free of charge. Wuhan Civil Affairs Bureau also launched 1460 community cool spots on the 18th …

　　Under the high temperature, netizens are also spitting out. Among them, a paragraph "A student of a university in Chongqing fell on the playground and was finally identified as a third-degree burn by the school hospital" was widely reprinted, and netizens responded that "Chongqing can be replaced by Nanjing, Changsha, Wuhan, Chengdu and other cities."

　　The culprit of heat: the subtropical high that attacked the inland

　　From mid-June to early July last year, it was the rainy season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with fewer days of high temperature. However, why did the high temperature continue to hit a large area in mid-June this year? He Lifu analyzed that this was affected by the subtropical high "stretching westward and jumping northward".

　　Subtropical high is the main weather system that affects mainland China in summer, and the areas it controls are prone to persistent sunny and hot weather. "At this time last year, the subtropical high was maintained in the south of the Yangtze River and South China, but the subtropical high went inland to the north and west two days ago, controlling Hubei, Henan and other places, leading to a wide range of high temperature weather recently." He Lifu said.

　　After 21 days, the subtropical high will return to the south of the Yangtze River and South China, and the high temperature range will be reduced to the south, and the high temperature weather in Shaanxi, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places will gradually ease.

　　Jiangnan south China welcomes high temperature protracted war

　　The high temperature in the south will be maintained in the next few days, and the number of continuous high temperature days in big cities such as Chongqing, Changsha and Nanchang may break the record. Take Chongqing as an example, the high temperature has lasted for 4 days from 15th to 18th, and will continue until 23rd, and the number of consecutive high temperature days will reach 9 days, or it will break the record of 8 consecutive high temperature days since June 1961.

　　"This hot weather is just a warm-up, and Jiangnan and South China have not yet entered the real hot season." He Lifu said that throughout July and August, Jiangnan and South China will be controlled by the subtropical high, and more persistent and strong hot weather will be ushered in.

　　In this regard, He Lifu reminded that Jiangnan, South China and other places need to make preparations for enduring high temperatures, and relevant departments should pay attention to preventing fires caused by excessive electricity consumption and heavy loads on power equipment such as wires and transformers; It is best for the public to avoid going out at high temperature in the afternoon. Workers working outdoors or under high temperature conditions should take necessary protective measures, pay attention to work and rest time, ensure adequate sleep, and prepare some commonly used heatstroke prevention and cooling drugs when necessary.

(Source: China Weather Network Editor: Sun Wei)

Wenxue business data school

On July 16th, SMIC was officially listed in science and technology innovation board. Although the outstanding shares in A shares only account for about 14% of the total issued shares, and the P/E ratio is as high as 113.12 times (calculated at the issue price of 27.46 yuan/share), it still received enthusiastic pursuit and the opening price soared. On the other hand, TSMC, the world’s largest wafer foundry with SMIC as the benchmark, will also release its financial report for the second quarter of 2020 today.

Chips are generally divided into three links — — Chip design, chip manufacturing and chip packaging testing, among which, the wafer foundry link in chip manufacturing where SMIC and TSMC are located is one of the weakest links in Chinese mainland’s chip industry chain at present.

"First-class design, second-class packaging and testing, and third-class chip manufacturing", Sheng Linghai, vice president of global consulting firm Gartner Semiconductor Research Group and analyst, commented on the current situation of Chinese mainland’s chip industry and global benchmarking to Business Data School. "At present, Huawei Hisilicon’s chip design is already the world’s first-class level, and the technical threshold for packaging and testing is relatively low, but the chip manufacturing link — — The technology including upstream mask aligner equipment and wafer foundry is still far from the world’s first-class. "

According to incomplete statistics, there are as many as 20 chip companies listed or to be listed in science and technology innovation board from April to July, but only one chip manufacturer is SMIC.

Just recently, at the moment when the "half-time war" in chip manufacturing was tense, the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced that it had broken through the 5-nanometer lithography technology, and SMIC had also developed a production process below 7 nanometers, which could be mass-produced by the end of the year, which brought a glimmer of light to the localization of chips, but how much did these relieve the urgent demand for high-end chips in one to three years?

Business Data School made a detailed comparison between SMIC and TSMC in the past five years. From the perspective of revenue scale (see the figure below for details), TSMC’s revenue has always been more than 10 times that of SMIC, while its wafer shipment is only about 2-3 times, which means that SMIC’s price per wafer is cheaper than TSMC’s, which shows that SMIC’s bargaining power is far lower than TSMC’s.

(Cartography: Business Data School)

(Cartography: Business Data School)

According to the rough calculation of Business Data School, in 2019, the shipment price of TSMC per wafer was about $3,609.1, while that of SMIC was only $619.6, with a price difference of six times.

(Cartography: Business Data School)　

It is precisely because of the low price that SMIC’s gross profit margin has remained between 20% and 30%, far below TSMC’s gross profit margin of over 45%.

　The reason why the price gap is so large is that SMIC’s mass-produced products are still relatively backward. In 2019, the two areas with the largest production capacity are still between 0.15/0.18 micron and 55/65 nm, while the current world-class high-end chips are mainly 14 nm, especially at 28 nm. Now there has been a global overcapacity situation.

At present, the revenue of SMIC’s 14 nm and 28 nm process products is relatively low, and the 28 nm process products are facing the risks of overcapacity, continuous decline in revenue, high depreciation pressure and negative gross profit margin.

In the past three years, the revenue of SMIC’s 28 nm process products was divided into 1.63 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan and 810 million yuan, accounting for 8.12%, 6.19% and 4.03% respectively, and the revenue and proportion continued to decline; In the fourth quarter of 2019, mass production of 14 nm process products began, and the related income was 57.0615 million yuan, accounting for 0.29%.

To sum up, SMIC has transferred some general equipment originally used in the 28 nm process to other processes with higher profits.

(Cartography: Business Data School)

This also directly determines the level of net profit. The net interest rates of SMIC in recent three years are 5.1%, 2.3% and 4.1%, which are far lower than the net interest rates of TSMC of 32.3%, 34.0% and 35.1%.

After deducting non-recurring gains and losses in 2018 and 2019, SMIC’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was negative, which were-6.168 billion yuan and-5.22 billion yuan respectively.

Behind the difference in chip prices between SMIC and TSMC is the gap in advanced technology. To further enhance commercial competitiveness, we must catch up technically.

The rich terminal application scenarios of integrated circuits determine that the mainstream technology nodes and processes of chip products in various sub-sectors are different, and the technology iteration and corresponding market demand change rapidly.

Advanced technology generally advances one generation after one to three years, such as TSMC’s mass production of 16 nm /14 nm in 2015, 10 nm in 2016, 7 nm in 2018 and 5 nm in 2020. If the technology iteration of wafer foundry lags behind the technological requirements of product application, it will not meet the needs of the market and customers.

According to IC Insights statistics, TSMC accounted for 59% of the global pure wafer foundry market share in 2018, and SMIC accounted for 6%. The mass production time of SMIC’s 14 nm process is 2019, and the next generation process has entered the stage of customer introduction.

Although the research and development of advanced technology needs constant capital investment and accumulation, the emergence of key technical figures can often push this process forward a long way.

A key figure behind SMIC’s breakthrough in 14 nm and 7 nm technology is Liang Mengsong, the co-CEO of SMIC. In just 298 days, the difficulty of 14 nm process technology was overcome, and the yield of the process was improved to 95%.

As a former research and development backbone of TSMC, Liang Mengsong is one of the top ten chip talents in the world. After leaving TSMC for half a year in 2009, Liang Mengsong joined Samsung, which directly upgraded Samsung’s technical level by one generation, from 28 nm to 14 nm.

The next SMIC to conquer is the mass production of 7 nanometers.

In addition, according to Liang Mengsong, the development route of SMIC’s 7nm process technology is not much different from TSMC’s. On the 7 nm process node, three types have been developed, among which the manufacturing process of N7 and N7P can not use EUV lithography technology, while the process of N7+ will use EUV technology, but even if EUV technology is used, the number of mask layers is very small.

On the 5nm process node, EUV lithography technology has been fully utilized, and the number of mask layers can reach as many as 14, which is a high technical level in the industry. — — This is also the part that TSMC is currently trying to mass-produce.

In addition, in terms of production capacity, TSMC currently operates a 150mm fab, six 200mm fabs, five 300mm fabs and four advanced back-end fabs. In 2019, the annual production capacity (in terms of 12-inch equivalent wafers) was about 12.3 million wafers, while in 2018 it was about 12 million wafers. This growth was mainly due to the expansion of 7-nanometer technology.

The layout of SMIC’s fabs is as follows: there are a 300mm fab, a 200mm fab and a controlled 300mm advanced process fab in Shanghai; There is a 300mm wafer factory and a holding 300mm advanced process wafer factory in Beijing. There are two 200mm fabs in Tianjin and Shenzhen. There is a holding 300mm bump processing joint venture factory in Jiangyin.

Since it is a strong technology-driven business, it is inevitable to invest in research and development. The figure below shows the magnitude and proportion of global chip companies’ investment in R&D in 2019.

　Taking SMIC as an example, R&D expenses mainly include depreciation expenses, research and testing expenses, employee compensation expenses, etc. From 2017 to 2019, R&D expenses were 3.57 billion yuan, 4.47 billion yuan and 4.74 billion yuan respectively, showing an increasing trend.

However, the fastest growth is actually "depreciation expense", which is due to the purchase of some advanced machinery and equipment with higher unit price, which makes depreciation expense increase year by year, accounting for 30.34% of R&D expenses in 2019.

Secondly, the cost of research and testing is mainly the sample fee, which was 1.31 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for 27.70% of the research and development expenses, and the research and development efficiency has improved.

Thirdly, it is the salary cost of R&D personnel. In 2019, the salary of R&D personnel of SMIC exceeded 900 million yuan.

Sheng Linghai revealed that due to the current hot chip industry, chip engineers are very expensive at present. A chip design engineer with 10 years of experience has an annual salary of more than 1 million.

Let’s go back to the landing of SMIC in science and technology innovation board. The main purpose of raising funds is also for the construction of new production lines and R&D reserves. Among them, the investment of the 12-inch chip SN1 project is 8 billion yuan, which is used to meet part of the capital demand for building a 12-inch production line project with a monthly production capacity of 35,000 pieces, and the production technology level has been upgraded to 14 nanometers and below; Advanced and mature technology research and development project reserve fund project raised funds of 4 billion yuan for technology research and development to enhance the company’s market competitiveness.

Although the localization of chips is the general trend, the trend of globalization has not changed — — The chip was designed in the United States, processed in Taiwan, China, packaged in Malaysia, and finally sent to China for production and global sales.

"The birth of semiconductors is a result of the common development of all countries. So far, no country can have a complete semiconductor industry chain by itself." Su Wei, general manager of China Resources Microelectronics OEM Group, said, "At present, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic chips is less than 30%, and the development of China’s entire semiconductor industry chain is obviously short-board, but in the field of power semiconductors, we see that it is the first to break through and the gap with the international first-class technology level is narrowing."

At present, the low-end chips can be basically localized, but if we want to go to the high end, the wafer foundry link where SMIC is located will be a key link for the 7-nanometer mass production in the next three years. If it can be successfully realized, Chinese mainland’s chip manufacturing will take another step towards the world-class goal.

　　CCTV News:The Outline of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan issued this year has given Macao a new historical mission, 49 of which are directly related to Macao, and it has been listed as one of the four central cities in Greater Bay Area’s development and construction. Macao is grasping the opportunity of the times, actively connecting with the construction of Greater Bay Area at multiple levels and integrating into the overall situation of national development.

　　The "Planning Outline" points out the direction for Macao’s development, and it is necessary to build a world tourism and leisure center, a business cooperation service platform between China and Portuguese-speaking countries, and promote moderate and diversified economic development; Create an exchange and cooperation base with Chinese culture as the mainstream and multicultural coexistence. Han Jing, Bureau of Policy Research and Regional Development of the Macao SAR Government, said that in the construction of "one center, one platform and one base", Macao’s greatest advantage is "one country, two systems".

　　Han Jing, Director of the Regional Development Department of the Policy Research and Regional Development Bureau of the Macao SAR Government:First of all, Macao is an international free port, where people, goods, funds and information can freely enter and exit; Secondly, the operation mode of Macao’s economy is highly in line with international standards. At the same time, Macao has a low tax system, and the tax rate is even lower than that of Hong Kong. Moreover, Macao has an internationally recognized open and safe business environment. These are the irreplaceable advantages of Macao’s integration into Greater Bay Area.

　　CCTV reporter Zhang Hao:Greater Bay Area has provided a vast market and resources for Macao’s economic development, and Macao can also play its unique role in regional cooperation. The free port of funds with low tax rate gives Macao great potential in the field of investment and financing. Macao’s industrial and commercial circles also saw this, seized the opportunity and took the initiative to connect with Greater Bay Area’s construction.

　　On the 18th, Greater Bay Area Common Home Investment Co., Ltd. was established, which helped Greater Bay Area to form a new pattern of all-round opening-up and Macao’s moderate economic diversification. For young people in Macau, Greater Bay Area has built a platform for them to integrate into the development of the Mainland. Zhong Kezheng, member of the Standing Committee of the Youth Committee of the Chinese General Chamber of Commerce in Macao, believes that the resources in the field of scientific and technological innovation in the Mainland have a unique appeal to Macao talents.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 30-The Japanese government said on the 29th that Prime Minister kishida fumio ordered "all preparations" after receiving the notification of the satellite launch plan from North Korea. The Japanese Defense Ministry ordered the Self-Defense Forces to prepare for intercepting the wreckage of the North Korean rocket.

　　On the same day, Park Sang-ji, Deputy Foreign Minister of the DPRK, made a speech in response to Kishida’s statement of "seeking to realize the summit meeting between Japan and the DPRK as soon as possible" on the 27th, saying that the DPRK is willing to talk with Japan, but it should not be limited to the so-called "kidnapping issue".

　　On August 10th, 2022, Japanese Prime Minister kishida fumio held a press conference at the Prime Minister’s residence in Tokyo, Japan. Xinhua News Agency (Pool photo, photo by Rodrigo Reyes Marin)

　　Notify the launch plan

　　Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshi Matsuno said at a regular press conference on the morning of the 29th that the North Korean waterway management department contacted the waterway briefing room of the Japan Coast Guard through an e-mail in the early morning to inform the satellite launch plan.

　　According to the Japan Coast Guard and the Ministry of Marine and Fisheries of the Republic of Korea, the DPRK informed the Japanese side that the launch window will be from 0: 00 on May 31 to 0: 00 on June 11, and three dangerous areas will be designated, two of which are located in the western waters of South Korea and one is located in the east of the Philippines, all outside the so-called "exclusive economic zone" of Japan.

　　On the morning of the same day, Kishida instructed the relevant departments of the Japanese government to request that information collection and analysis be foolproof and properly release the news to the people; Cooperate with the United States and South Korea and strongly demand that North Korea refrain from launching; Be fully prepared for unexpected events.

　　According to Matsuno, the North Korean launch vehicle may fly over the Ryukyu Islands. Japanese Defense Minister Yasushi Hamada has issued a "destruction measure order" for intercepting missiles to the Self-Defense Forces, and is prepared to use the "Standard -3" air defense missile of the Aegis ship of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces and the "Patriot -3" missile defense system deployed in Miyako, Ishigaki and Nagano islands of Okinawa Prefecture to shoot down any object that may fall into Japanese territory.

　　On April 9, 2013, at the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense in Tokyo, Japan, the Patriot 3 missile launcher was parked in the stadium. Xinhua News Agency (photo by Guan Xianyilang)

　　This is the first time that the Japanese Defense Ministry has issued an interception order against North Korea’s launch activities since 2016.

　　However, some analysts pointed out that, unlike the Western media’s rendering of Japan’s "warning to shoot down the North Korean missile", Japan’s preparation for interception is actually aimed at the possibility that the North Korean satellite failed to launch and the rocket wreckage fell into Japan. In the past, when North Korea carried out launch activities, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces only monitored and never intercepted them.

　　North Korea informed relevant international organizations before launching satellites. For example, in 2016, North Korea informed United Nations agencies such as the International Civil Aviation Organization, the International Maritime Organization and the International Telecommunication Union that it would launch an Earth observation satellite. According to the provisions of the International Maritime Organization’s Global Navigation Warning Service, Japan is the coordinating country of the navigation warning area to which North Korea and South Korea belong, and the member countries in the area need to inform Japan of the maritime military exercise plan. Despite this, it is still rare for North Korea to inform Japan of its satellite launch plan.

　　According to Yonhap News Agency, North Korea has not notified the International Maritime Organization of the launch plan.

　　This photo provided by Korean Central News Agency on March 19, 2017 shows that North Korea conducted a ground ignition test of a new high-power rocket engine at the Xihai Satellite Launch Site in the early morning of March 18. Xinhua News Agency/Korean Central News Agency

　　Respond to Kishida’s statement

　　Just two days before the DPRK’s notification, that is, on the 27th, Kishida met with the families of Japanese victims of the "kidnapping problem" in the Japanese capital Tokyo, and later delivered a speech at the relevant rally, saying that the government he led would be committed to holding high-level consultations with the DPRK "under my direct control", and then "as soon as possible" to realize unconditional talks with Kim Jong-un, the top leader of the DPRK, so as to promote the return of kidnapped Japanese citizens.

　　In his speech, Kishida said that establishing a beneficial relationship with North Korea will be "beneficial to both Japan and North Korea and a great contribution to regional stability and peace". Kyodo News quoted a Japanese government source as saying that Kishida showed that "he is ready to talk to North Korea".

　　On the 29th, Park Sang-ji, deputy foreign minister of the DPRK, made a speech through the Korean Central News Agency, responding to Kishida’s statement, demanding that the Japanese side come up with a new plan and make a new decision, and demonstrate its will to improve the DPRK-Japan relations with practical actions.

　　Park Xiangji said that the Japanese side verbally said that it hoped to hold "Japan-DPRK summit talks without preconditions" and "actually still clung to the kidnapping problem that has already been solved and our country’s right to self-defense".

　　"What Japan wants or wants is still a mystery. However, if you don’t have the courage to come up with other countermeasures to rewrite history, just taking the old-fashioned ways of previous regimes in an attempt to realize the unsuccessful desire is a complete miscalculation and can only waste precious time. "

　　Park Xiangji said, "If Japan … … To make new decisions and find a way out for improving relations, there is no reason for the DPRK and Japan not to deal with each other. "This is the position of the DPRK.

　　In 2002, North Korea admitted to kidnapping many Japanese in 1970s and 1980s, sent back five kidnapped Japanese citizens and handed over some remains. Japanese officials have determined that 17 Japanese citizens have been kidnapped and asked the DPRK to explain the whereabouts of the remaining 12 people. The DPRK insists that the "kidnapping problem" has been solved.

　　In an interview with media reporters on the 29th, Kishida stressed that even if North Korea launches a satellite, he will not change his position of hoping to negotiate with the DPRK and realize the summit meeting between Japan and the DPRK as soon as possible. (Hu Ruoyu)

　　Beijing, June 1 ST (Reporter Qiu Yu) Is there a word "flash payment" written on your bank card? If there is, you should pay attention. Starting from today, the single limit of small amount of confidentiality and visa exemption for UnionPay cards will be raised from 300 yuan to 1000 yuan.

　　The reporter’s investigation found that many people don’t know that the bank "defaults" to open the function of small amount of confidentiality and visa exemption. What is a small amount of confidentiality and visa exemption? Is it reasonable for banks to open by default? Can I get compensation if my brush is stolen?

　　What is a small amount of confidentiality and visa exemption?

　　Simply put, this is a kind of "pay with one stroke" payment experience. Within a certain amount, you can complete the payment without entering a password and signature.

　　Unionpay’s small confidential exemption visa was launched by China UnionPay in 2015, which is convenient and efficient.

　　Which bank cards have this function? According to the announcement issued by UnionPay, cardholders need to use UnionPay chip cards or mobile payment devices with "flash payment" function. In other words, the magnetic stripe card cannot enable this function.

　　The single limit was raised from 300 yuan to 1000 yuan.

　　According to the announcement issued by UnionPay, starting from June 1, 2018, China UnionPay will jointly optimize the function of "small-amount confidential exemption and visa exemption" with member institutions. At that time, the single limit of small-amount confidential exemption and visa exemption for UnionPay chip debit cards and credit cards will be raised from 300 yuan to 1000 yuan.

　　The reporter consulted a number of banks on May 31 and found that many banks have raised their quotas.

　　According to the customer service staff of CITIC Bank in Beijing, the single consumption amount of small-sum confidential exemption and visa-free is no more than that of 1000 yuan, and the cumulative consumption amount of a single card per day is no more than 3,000 yuan.

　　Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, etc. have issued announcements in official website to increase the quota, announcing that the single quota for small-sum confidential exemption will be raised from 300 yuan to 1000 yuan.

　　Generally, the function is "default".

　　You can pay by credit card without password, which makes many people worry about the security of bank cards. Then, when opening this function, did the bank get the consent of the cardholder?

　　According to the information of UnionPay official website, small-sum confidential exemption and visa-free is a mature payment method in the world, and it is also the basic function of the default opening of bank cards, which makes cardholders pay more conveniently and quickly.

　　According to previous media reports, Cardo, a newly-developed UnionPay chip in most banks, has opened a small amount of confidential and visa-free payment service by default, but the opening of this service does not require the prior consent of the cardholder.

　　To this end, the reporter consulted the customer service staff of China Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and other banks in Beijing, and was told that this function is enabled by default, but cardholders can apply to close it.

　　According to the information disclosed by UnionPay official website, if the cardholder wants to turn off this function, he can contact the issuing bank to turn it off. At present, most issuing banks have supported the turn-off function.

　　Is the "default" opening reasonable?

　　"If the bank sets the small amount of confidential and visa-free payment function as the default, there is a problem in the procedure." Li Jiquan, a senior partner and lawyer of Beijing Junbang Law Firm, said, "Users have the right to know and choose. Banks should fully and effectively inform users of relevant contents and risks when opening the above functions, and let them sign for confirmation. "

　　Li Jiquan pointed out that the decision of the bank to raise the payment limit needs to be made known to the cardholder himself. In this way, the cardholder can realize the possible risks when the bank card is held by others.

　　Xiong Dingzhong, secretary-general of Tsinghua University Internet Law and Policy Research Center, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com that opening the secret-free function will indeed bring convenience to users, but it will also increase users’ risks. This kind of service should be specifically informed separately in the format contract between the user and the bank, just as the bank can’t open the U shield payment function by default.

　　If this function has been enabled by default, Liu Junhai, director of the Institute of Commercial Law of Renmin University of China, believes that banks can tell users about the small-sum confidential and visa-free payment function by SMS, and if users disagree, they should be able to cancel it at any time.

　　If the brush is stolen, you can get compensation

　　Several users who hold bank cards with flash payment function said that they did not know that the bank card had been opened with the function of small secret-free and visa-free payment. While pursuing convenience, how to ensure the safety of using the card has become the most concerned issue for consumers.

　　Considering the security of bank cards, in order to enhance the cardholder’s confidence in using the card, UnionPay pointed out in the announcement that for the loss caused by card theft and loss, if the compensation conditions are met, the cardholder can get compensation within a certain amount within 72 hours before reporting the loss.

　　According to the information of UnionPay official website, if a small amount of confidential and visa-free transactions are stolen within 72 hours before the loss is reported, you should call the customer service of the issuing bank as soon as possible after the loss is reported, and apply for compensation according to the process of the issuing bank. The application materials to be provided by the cardholder generally include the cardholder’s identity certificate, the UnionPay card transaction denial statement, etc. After the application materials are approved, the compensation funds will generally be returned to the account designated by the cardholder within 10 working days. The payment time limit of different issuing banks is different.

　　In this regard, Li Jiquan believes that if the customer is in a known state for opening a small amount of confidential and visa-free payment function, then the compensation within 72 hours is a supplement to the contract between the two parties; If the customer doesn’t know about this function, it can only be said that it is a remedial measure for the bank’s own behavior.

　　Liu Junhai said that "compensation can be obtained within a certain amount" is rather vague, and suggested that it should be changed to "full compensation", which is the key to enhance the confidence of cardholders and can relieve users’ worries about the safety of using cards. (End)

　　The picture shows Wu Haiping, Commissioner of Nanjing Customs, investigating in China Communications Day and the company. Zong Yishe

　　Core reading

　　The "enterprise problem clearing mechanism" initiated by Nanjing Customs strives to accurately focus on the development problems of industries and enterprises. By comprehensively using various communication channels of "internet plus Customs" and "online+offline", it explores and constructs a new communication mode between enterprises (citizens), realizing "zero distance" in communication and interaction between enterprises and enterprises, "zero obstacles" in solving problems, and striving for "zero inventory" in enterprise problems. Realize the "full chain" and "closed loop" management of enterprise demands, and ensure that "everything is echoed and everything is implemented".

　　□ Our reporter Cai Yanhong

　　How to get through the "last mile" of service enterprises, change the phenomenon that service enterprises are anticlimactic and their demands are delayed for a long time? Since the beginning of this year, Nanjing Customs has taken practical measures to optimize the business environment, focused on serving the people and solving problems, explored and innovated and established a set of "enterprise problem clearing mechanism", actively responded to the demands of enterprises, promptly solved problems and served the development of enterprises.

　　Recently, the reporter learned in an interview with Nanjing Customs that from January to August this year, Nanjing Customs accepted 5,462 difficult problems of enterprises through various channels, and solved 5,358 problems, with a problem solving rate of 98%.

　　Communication and interaction between enterprises and enterprises to achieve zero distance

　　“‘ Enterprise problem clearing mechanism ’ The proposal stems from the feelings of Wu Haiping’s grassroots research. " Wu Wei, deputy director of Nanjing Customs Office, told reporters.

　　Wu Haiping, Commissioner of Nanjing Customs, found that some enterprises raised a series of questions at different times, on different occasions or in different regions, but after listening carefully, many of them were "familiar". "Some problems have appeared repeatedly. On the one hand, they have not solved the problem in a real, deep and thorough way; On the other hand, some thorny problems are difficult to solve for a while, and it takes great efforts to make a long-term contribution. " Wu Haiping said.

　　In this regard, on January 3rd this year, Nanjing Customs officially launched the "enterprise problem clearing mechanism", striving to accurately focus on the development problems of industries and enterprises. By comprehensively using various communication channels of "internet plus Customs" and "online+offline", we explored and constructed a new communication mode between enterprises (citizens), realizing "zero distance" in communication and interaction between enterprises, "zero obstacles" in solving problems, and striving to "zero inventory" in enterprise problems. Realize the "full chain" and "closed loop" management of enterprise demands, and ensure that "everything is echoed and everything is implemented".

　　"Within the customs, through the comprehensive coordination, functional management, legal, business experts joint guidance of inter-departmental ‘ Consultation ’ Establish and improve the problem-solving mechanism, make precise efforts, and solve problems for enterprises. " Wu Wei further introduced that, at the same time, we should pay attention to the post-clearing evaluation of problems, guide enterprises and clients to conduct online evaluation of problems that have been solved or responded to, and the customs should pay a timely post-clearing visit, and regularly "look back" on the handling of difficult problems to ensure that the problems are really "cleared".

　　"For summary and combing, it has been ‘ Clear ’ Typical problems, by analyzing cases from point to area, sharing experiences, popularizing solutions, warning risks, standardizing and unifying law enforcement, and promoting problems ‘ Batch clearing ’ ‘ Overall clearing ’ Strive to solve a difficult problem, solve a class of problems, serve an enterprise and facilitate an industry. " Zhang Yaping, deputy director of Nanjing Customs and director of Jinling Customs, added, we should strengthen functional guidance on common disputes, eliminate law enforcement disputes, give early hints on major risks and hidden dangers, draw a relatively unified law enforcement scale for the discretionary power with excessive flexibility, and do a good job in supporting and optimizing system norms.

　　In order to establish a scientific, accurate, efficient and long-term working mechanism of enterprise problem collection, handling and feedback, on August 20th, "Nanjing Customs Enterprise Problem Clearing Management System" was officially launched. According to Shi Jianping, director of the Open Government Affairs Office of Nanjing Customs Office, through this system, enterprises can reflect problems at any time through computers and mobile phones without being limited by time and place, and realize "zero distance" in communication between enterprises and enterprises.

　　Three ways to promote enterprise problem clearing

　　China Communications Tianhe Machinery Equipment Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a Sino-Japanese joint venture shield machine production and service enterprise. "Due to the change of the Malaysian government, the two shield machine contracts signed by the company and Malaysia could not be performed normally, resulting in the failure to implement and write off the corresponding import processing trade manual normally, which brought great tax and fee pressure to enterprises, thanks to the guidance and settlement of the customs." Now, talking to reporters about the past, Zhou Jun, the company’s deputy general manager, has a relaxed face.

　　At that time, in response to the problems reflected by enterprises, Nanjing Customs, under Changshu Customs, set up a problem clearing working group headed by Commissioner Chen Xindong at the first time, and led relevant departments to go to China Communications Day and the company for on-site work. "Soon, we received the solution provided by the customs. According to the calculation, the company can reduce the cost by more than 10 million yuan." Ren Linyi, deputy manager of the company’s material procurement center, said gratefully.

　　When interviewed by Changshu Customs, the reporter saw a "Contact Card for Enterprises" with a two-dimensional code, which was printed with the business functions of various departments of Changshu Customs and the contact information of the main person in charge. Enterprises can directly log in to Changshu Customs Enterprise "Problem Clearing" WeChat official account to make comments and reflect problems to the Customs. The customs has a special person responsible for maintenance, collecting problems and responding to feedback in time.

　　"Changshu Customs has put forward various types for enterprises ‘ Question ’ , according to ‘ Clear ’ The idea is divided into three solutions. " Chen Xindong explained to reporters: for the problems within the scope of customs functions, answer and solve them on the spot, that is, "clearing them on the spot"; For the problems that are reasonable in appeal but need to be solved by the higher customs, we should actively reflect them, do a good job of tracking and coordinating, and strive for the "early clearing" of the problems; For the demands put forward by enterprises that do not conform to the provisions of national laws and regulations, we will solve doubts on the spot, and arrange relevant departments to jointly carry out policy research with enterprises, so as to maximize the benefits of enterprises through other means, get the understanding and support of enterprises, and realize the problem of "clearing the mind".

　　Those who can answer at the scene will never spend the night

　　When Nanjing Customs is subordinate to Wujiang Customs, the reporter saw a thank-you letter from Changxu Electronics (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Changxu Electronics). Changxu Electronics is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise controlled by a French company. Its products are mainly used in medical devices, consumer electronics and industrial control.

　　Speaking of this thank-you letter, Ma Honglan, director of Wujiang Customs, still remembers it vividly. At 5 o’clock in the afternoon on August 19 this year, it was time to get off work. After a busy day’s work, Ma Honglan just breathed a sigh of relief when a middle-aged lady stormed in.

　　"Commissioner Ma Guan, I am Zhang Xinhua, general manager of Wujiang Branch of Suzhou Customs Declaration Company. Please solve one problem." It turned out that Zhang Xinhua’s agent, Changxu Electronics, declared a ticket of equipment to Wujiang Customs. After the goods were inspected by Shanghai Customs, the system could not be released for a long time. As the equipment will be used in a new project of the company, the whole company and even customers attach great importance to it, and overseas engineers from the original equipment factory are also waiting in the company to assist in installation. Delivery one day late may cause customers to cancel their orders. Zhang Xinhua found the door with a try.

　　After listening to Zhang Xinhua’s words, Ma Honglan grabbed the phone without saying anything, and told the relevant customs officers of the customs clearance department, who quickly contacted Shanghai Customs by telephone. At this time, the customs officers of Shanghai Customs were on their way off work and quickly returned to the customs after learning the situation. With everyone’s joint efforts, this batch of equipment was cleared and released that night.

　　"Nowadays, trade protectionism is becoming more and more fierce, and a good business environment is extremely important for attracting investment. This incident makes us fully feel the enthusiastic service and efficient customs clearance efficiency of Wujiang Customs … …” This is said in the thank-you letter sent by Changxu Electronics to Wujiang Customs.

　　For the "enterprise problem clearing" work, Wujiang Customs specially issued the "Implementation Plan of Enterprise Problem Clearing Mechanism", which made specific arrangements for the key issues, specific methods, internal mechanisms, feedback channels and work requirements of the enterprise problem clearing mechanism. At the same time, a closed-loop management chain of Wujiang Customs internal problems collection, registration, promotion and supervision, timely feedback and follow-up visit has been established. Put forward enterprise problems and clear "day — "Week" mechanism, that is, the on-site answer to the enterprise can not be solved overnight, and the solution that needs comprehensive consultation should not exceed weeks; At the same time, we have established and relied on the professional cooperation mechanism of this customs to integrate the new customs business, and established seven professional cooperation groups, including commodity inspection, animal and plant quarantine, health quarantine, and food and cosmetics safety, to provide effective protection for the enterprise problem clearing.

　　Multi-channel unblocked problem feedback mechanism

　　Suzhou hisilicon Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Haisi Company) is affiliated to Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd., and is mainly responsible for the import trade of Huawei chips. "In order to realize the localization process of chip manufacturing and save costs to a greater extent, in early May, Hisilicon proposed to export some high-end processing technologies. According to the export processing policy, the company must have the qualification of general customs certification or above, and the company is currently a general credit qualification, which does not meet the policy requirements of export processing, and it is urgent to obtain the qualification of customs certification enterprise. " Liu Xiaojian, head of the Credit Management Section of the Customs Enterprise Management Office of Suzhou Industrial Park, said.

　　On May 7th, the Customs of Suzhou Park immediately went to the enterprise to conduct research and conduct on-site credit cultivation for the enterprise after learning the enterprise’s demands. On May 14th, the Deputy Commissioner in charge led a team to join the local government to go to Huawei’s headquarters for investigation, and quickly wrote an investigation report. At the same time, it reported the pain points and demands of the enterprise to Nanjing Customs, which was strongly supported by the leaders of the General Customs and the Enterprise Management Office. At the same time, the Customs of Suzhou Park appointed a special person to carry out seamless docking with the enterprise and cultivate it, doing its best to help the enterprise prepare for certification. On May 22nd, AEO Certification Group of Nanjing Customs carried out advanced certification for Haisi Company and passed it successfully. To this end, the enterprise presented a banner and medals made with the most advanced 7-nanometer chip in the world to the customs.

　　Since the beginning of this year, Suzhou Park Customs has been guided by clearing the problem, constantly optimizing and smoothing the feedback mechanism of enterprise problem collection and research, and striving to solve the problems that enterprises care about the government. At the same time, actively promote the application of enterprise problem clearing system in this customs area, and guide enterprises in the jurisdiction to use the system through multiple channels.

　　"Xiao Qingshan" is a volunteer service team composed of social forces such as customs officers and senior customs officers in Suzhou Park. The team makes full use of the advantages for customs groups and key enterprises to realize "zero distance" for answering questions for enterprises. "We have now set up 12 instant messaging groups, widely collecting daily problems of enterprises through WeChat, QQ and other channels, and focusing on answering questions on the backbone of customs business." Du Yang, the second-level sponsor of the Comprehensive Customs Business Department of Suzhou Park and the leader of the "Xiao Qingshan" volunteer service team, told the reporter that in order to make the enterprises in the jurisdiction make full use of the customs reform bonus, the team also actively assisted the local government to carry out research on key enterprises, tailor-made policy packages for them, and carried out "one-on-one" business guidance for pilot enterprises, trying to "find people when problems occur and find people to solve them" so that corporate problems can be "cleared" in the first time.

　　From January to July this year, Suzhou Park Customs held 23 policy presentations and participated in more than 2,390 enterprises. Went to the enterprise for investigation 66 times, and accepted and solved 105 problems; Telephone, internet and other channels accepted more than 750 replies. "In addition to promoting the advanced certification of Haisi AEO, we have also solved a number of concerns of enterprises, industry associations and local governments such as the entry of Roche diagnostic serum and the import of used Philips medical equipment." Wang Yongmei, deputy director of Suzhou Park Customs Office, said.