Original Chu Tian Lan Teng Yun
Text | Chu Tianlan
Tengyun special author
For today’s people, the emergence of new technologies has greatly facilitated daily life, and the development of information technology has provided great convenience for work, travel or shopping. On the other hand, the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) has replaced a large number of jobs that previously required manpower, such as cashiers, waiters, ticket sellers and so on. Some displaced people may be able to find better jobs. For those who are affected by this, the development and progress of new technologies are obviously not good news.
The Technical Trap focuses on this issue: the emergence of new technologies will lead to the unemployment or income reduction of some workers, while the economic growth brought by some creative destruction and the creation of new employment opportunities often take decades or even longer to be reflected. How to avoid the pain and loss caused by technology trap to these people and take corresponding remedial measures is an important issue.
Technical trap
Author: (Sweden) Karl benedikt Frey Translator: He Xiao
Press: Houlangdang Democracy and Construction Press, December 2021.
01
The invention and impact of new technology
According to the unclear definition in this book, labor-saving technologies can be roughly divided into two types: enabling technologies and alternative technologies. Enabling technology is a technology that helps people to complete existing tasks more efficiently or creates new job opportunities for workers. Technology that makes jobs and skills redundant is called replacement technology (page 14).
According to the author’s example, if the steel quantity in 1929 is produced with the technology of 1890, the required workers are 1.25 million instead of 400,000. However, because the demand for steel is rising steadily, 800,000 extra people are rarely unemployed because of the mechanization development of the steel industry. In addition, computer-aided design software can make staff more efficient rather than replace them. However, the alternative technology is different, and the automatic elevator replaces the elevator operator. In the factory that produces cars, robots not only improve output, but also replace mechanical operators.
It is not difficult to see that both enabling technology and replacement technology can improve production efficiency and reduce costs. However, there is no clear distinction between the two. A labor-saving technology used in one field is enabling technology, and used in another field is probably replacing technology. As we have seen, the emergence of any new technology will impact the original production order and market demand.
From today’s point of view, as long as new technology can save labor, improve efficiency and reduce costs, it will be widely used and popularized in reality. However, in many times in history, this is not the case. For example, after the popularization of printing, the original scribe either specialized in copying short texts that were uneconomical to print, or became a bookbinder and designer. However, the Sultan Bayezid II, worried that literates would weaken his dominant position, issued a decree in 1485 prohibiting printing in Arabic in the Ottoman Empire.
"Technology Trap" holds that in the classical era, technology mainly served the public domain, rather than satisfying private interests. Rulers promote technological progress not to improve the efficiency of speculation, but to improve public works in order to improve their popularity and consolidate political power.
Therefore, technology at this time is a political tool, not serving economic interests. Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus, the Roman emperor, was in power in 69-79 AD. At that time, if a big and heavy cylinder was transported from a mine to Rome, thousands of workers were needed and the expenses were huge. Someone told Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus that he had invented a device, which could greatly reduce the cost. But Titus Flavius Caesar Vespasianus Augustus refused to use it for fear that depriving the Romans of their jobs would lead to political instability.
Similar things happened in England in the 16th and 17th centuries and Germany in the 18th century. In 1589, Reverend William Li Faming bought a knitting machine for stockings. This labor replacement technology was of milestone significance at that time. However, the knitwear guild strongly resisted this new technology, and Queen Elizabeth I refused to grant him a patent right to avoid workers losing their jobs. William lee left England for this reason.
In 1623, the Privy Council of the United Kingdom ordered that the sewing machine be banned and the sewing needles made from it be destroyed. From 1685 to 1726, automatic looms were completely banned in Germany. In 1705, the French’s Dennis Papan invented the steam engine in Germany. His mentor and friend, the famous physicist gottfried leibniz, wrote to Hesse Kassel Elector, requesting that Papan’s ship be allowed to "pass without any trouble", but it was not approved. When Papan’s steamboat arrived in Minden, the boatmen’s guild tried to get the local judge to detain Papan’s boat, but it failed. After that, the boatmen attacked and destroyed Papan’s ship and smashed the steam engine. In the end, Papan died of poverty and was buried in an unknown grave.
In 1688, a glorious revolution took place in Britain. Political power was transferred from the king to the parliament, and businessmen gained more political discourse rights. Parliament began to defend the interests of businessmen more. Birmingham and Manchester used to be villages, but later they developed into towns, liberated from the rules of guilds and became the engines of the industrial revolution.
However, the situation in France is different. During the French Revolution in 1789, when Paris people stormed the Bastille, wool workers from Darnatal took advantage of the chaos, broke through the bridge of the Seine River guarded by the Wang family, and destroyed the machines near the factory of Da Saint-Cerf. Thirty machines of Caron Company were destroyed by mobs. In the suburb of Rouen, more than 700 Jenny spinning machines were destroyed.
However, the government was worried that this incident would worsen the situation in the country, so it did not send troops to quell it. French industrialists and inventors, on the other hand, do not believe that the government can protect their own interests, thus weakening their willingness to invest in machinery and industry. This situation from 1789 to 1799 affected the development of French economy.
The same is true in China. According to the observer Daniel J. McGovern’s record in 1886, Foshan merchants imported a large number of brass sheets from Birmingham, England, and sold them to producers to build brass utensils. Because some coppersmith’s job is to beat imported thick brass sheets into thin sheets, these thin copper sheets were returned to Hong Kong to avoid riots. An American Chinese imported a batch of efficient sewing machines to sew felt soles, but they were destroyed by local shoemakers.
Looking at the birth and development of new technology, it is often not limited to the superiority and performance of the technology itself, but the result of the tripartite game between labor, management and rulers, who are often the final arbiter. The standard of its ruling is often political stability, not just production efficiency. For workers, if new technologies can improve skills and increase income, they will be happy to adopt them; For the management, as long as it can improve the efficiency and reduce the cost, it is willing to adopt it; For rulers, new technology not only improves efficiency, but also benefits political stability.
Political power not only determines the authoritative distribution of major interests, but also determines whether new technologies can be popularized and used. In the triangular relationship among labor, management and ruler, the ruler has the strongest right to speak: when a new technology appears, when both labor and management agree, the ruler has no reason to oppose it, and if the ruler opposes it, the new technology will be difficult to popularize and use; When one side of labor and management agrees and the other side opposes, the support and opposition of the ruler determines whether this technology can be popularized.
02
Different consequences of the industrial revolution
It is generally believed that the first industrial revolution took place in the 1760s-1840s, marked by the widespread use of steam engines.
The second industrial revolution took place in the late 1960s, marked by the widespread use of electricity, when the United States replaced Britain as a technology leader.
The third industrial revolution began in the 1940 s and 1950 s, and major breakthroughs were made in the fields of atomic energy, computer, electronic technology, aerospace technology, molecular biology and genetic engineering.
The fourth industrial revolution is based on artificial intelligence, robotics, virtual reality, quantum information technology, controlled nuclear fusion, clean energy and biotechnology.
In 1769, Richard Ackerett and james watt applied for a patent for their invention, which is usually regarded as the beginning of the industrial revolution. In the previous decades, mechanization has begun and factories have appeared. The rise of international trade has intensified the competition among nation-states. The rising wages of British workers force the country to maintain its competitiveness through mechanization.
In 1716, John Lome sneaked into an Italian factory, quietly drew a machine pattern and shipped it back to England in silk. A year after returning to England from Italy, John Lome and his funded brother Thomas set up the first silk factory near Derbyshire-the twisting machine of the factory was made according to the drawings brought back from Italy.
Before the machine age, spinning cotton was time-consuming and laborious. In 1776, the second krom Ford cotton mill opened by Akelet opened. This factory uses hydraulic drive machines, which are arranged according to the production sequence, and its hydraulic spinning machine uses drum spinning, which reduces the labor cost by about two thirds, and finally reduces the total cost of woolen cotton by 20%. In addition, Akelet invented the carding machine.
James hargreaves, on the other hand, invented Jenny’s spinning machine, which is 70 times more expensive than a hand-spinning wheel, but much cheaper than Ackerett’s machine and takes up less space. In 1779, Samuel crompton invented the crompton-type spinning frame, which was quickly applied to factories. Spinning machine saves labor costs and replaces manual spinning workers. During this period, spinning machines continued to improve, with the goal of replacing men with women and children to reduce costs.
In the eyes of many people today, the steam engine promoted the industrial revolution. However, it took nearly 200 years from the earliest practical application of the steam engine to the obvious impact on economic development. In the late 17th century, Thomas savery, a British Cornwall officer, first applied atmospheric pressure. In 1712, Thomas Newcomen’s steam engine appeared. Because of its inherent defects, it was only used for coal mine drainage before 1770.
After james watt invented the separate condenser, the heat in the cylinder would not be lost in the condensation process. However, Watt’s steam engine was not widely used until several decades later, and it was not until the mid-19th century that it showed great economic impact-the steam engine was widely used in railway, iron and steel smelting, textile and other industries, which greatly improved the production efficiency.
The industrial revolution driven by technology has driven the British economy to take off, but the income distribution brought by growth is extremely uneven. Between 1759 and 1867, the proportion of the richest 5% people in the total income rose from 21% to 37%. In the early days of industrialization, the situation of many ordinary people became worse. Although the per capita income has increased, the income gap between ordinary people and the middle class is widening.
At the same time, some writers and scholars began to criticize machines and factories. Engels believed that the misfortune of the working class was brought about by the factory system. Defenders of mechanization argue that machines are a useful supplement to workers’ labor, and only when machines are popularized can newer and better-paid jobs emerge.
From 1811 to 1816, Luddite came into being. In Leicester, Ned Lourdes, a weaving apprentice, was scolded by his employer and picked up a hammer to smash the textile machine, thus the "Lourdeism" movement with the goal of destroying the machine arose. Luddites usually destroy only those machines that are "innovative" or threaten employment. They have carried out at least 100 separate actions and destroyed about 1,000 of the 25,000 machines.
In response, the British government sent troops to suppress it. In 1812 and 1813, more than 30 Luddites were hanged. The "Captain Swing" riot that broke out in 1830 was mainly aimed at agricultural machines. By the end of September and November, 492 machines were destroyed, most of which were threshers.
During the period of the industrial revolution, Britain was caught in an "Engel-style pause": the employers obtained the profits of enterprises and invested them in factories and machinery, while the wages of workers stagnated or even declined. Until a few decades later, the number of rich people increased, and the income of workers doubled. In the author’s view, this is because in the last decades of the industrial revolution, more complex machines appeared in factories, requiring more skilled workers, and technological changes changed from substitution to enablement, thus improving the bargaining power of skilled workers.
The technological leader of the second industrial revolution was the United States, and "Technology Trap" also projected its attention here. At the World Expo in Paris in 1867, Americans showed their technological progress: from telegraph and sewing machine to harvester and lawn mower. In 1882, Edison’s new york Pearl Street Power Station began to operate, and in the 30 years before the outbreak of World War I, the cost of household lighting decreased by 90%.
Many factories were electrified before 1900. Electric irons (introduced in 1893), vacuum cleaners (1907), washing machines (1907), ovens (1909), refrigerators (1916), dishwashers (1929), dryers (1938) and other electrical appliances have greatly facilitated the lives of American housewives. A large number of women are liberated from heavy housework and can go to work in factories, which not only increases the labor force in the United States, but also increases family income. The book "Fighting Industry: How America Won World War II" shows that during World War II, those civilian industries mobilized by the war and ordinary men and women who were trained in military production made the United States sing a triumphant song in the war and laid a solid foundation for the 30-year prosperity after the war.
On April 26th, 1956, Machlin’s "Ideal -X" began its first voyage from Newark Port to Houston Port, Texas, which was the first successful container shipping in history. Since then, container technology has laid the foundation for the second wave of globalization, which has profoundly changed the trade world. It is also the driving force of Smith-type growth (mainly relying on capital investment to achieve economic growth) and Schumpeter-type growth (increasing efficiency through scientific and technological progress and innovation).
The United States has also encountered the problem of unemployment caused by technology. During franklin roosevelt’s administration, the National Renaissance Administration issued 280 regulations, 36 of which contained restrictions on the installation of new machines. However, at a hearing on the impact of automation in 1955, no one objected to automation, and no one suggested limiting the use of machines. On the whole, technological development has created many new employment opportunities. The United States is not only richer, but also Schumpeter-style growth has made it more equal.
However, this trend was reversed in the 1980s. The wages of people with high school diplomas and below have been declining for more than 30 years, and the computer revolution has made the skills of workers who take care of machines obsolete. Engels-style pause reappeared. In many places, work was replaced by robots, and this area fell into decline. It is precisely because of the decline of the middle class that the number of moderate members in the US Congress has drastically decreased and politics has become polarized-"Conservatism and freedom have almost become synonymous with the Republican Party and the Democratic Party".
In addition, people are still worried that the concentration of wealth will undermine the legitimacy of democracy-high campaign costs will make elected officials more dependent on groups with stronger economic strength.
In the long run, technology will benefit everyone.
For example, in the United States today, the poorest families have also maintained a certain standard of living. However, in recent years, the distribution of benefits brought by computers and artificial intelligence is more biased towards employers. For example, "Technical Trap" says that there are 1.9 million heavy truck drivers and towed trailer drivers in the United States, and people are worried that after the technology of self-driving trucks is mature and put into use, it will bring a large number of layoffs. Once these drivers are replaced and placed in a situation where their careers or incomes are drastically reduced, they are likely to resist such alternative technologies.
03
How to avoid the technical trap?
From the perspective of human history, the prosperity and development of modern society is directly related to technological progress. After the industrial revolution, the development of technology has advanced by leaps and bounds, and everyone is enjoying its fruits-which makes the popularization and use of technology more legitimate.
The book "Technical Trap" shows that computers and artificial intelligence are more inclined to replace. This means that more skilled workers have lost their jobs, and their income will decrease whether they are re-employed or unemployed, which has led to the decline of the American middle class and the resulting political polarization.
Great technological inventions may bring huge economic benefits, but there is usually a long time lag. For example, this is the case with the steam engine invented by Watt. However, people’s life is short, and in these decades or even longer, one generation or even several generations will become the victims of the technical trap. In the previous human history, the displaced workers would resist these technologies, and the government could only restrict the use of new machines through policies for the sake of political stability.
How to avoid the technical trap? The methods proposed in this book include promoting major educational reforms and increasing investment in basic education; Provide retraining for the affected unemployed; Provide wage insurance; Expand the labor income tax credit; Reduce the control of reemployment; Help the unemployed to move to places where they have jobs; Expand housing supply and cancel zoning restrictions; Develop transportation to reduce commuting time; Industrial revival and so on.
It is not difficult to see that the impact of technology trap is not due to technology itself, but to the field of political economy. The distribution of wealth has always been a difficult problem. The United States with low taxes and low welfare and Denmark with high taxes and high welfare have their own advantages and disadvantages. The solution finally put forward in "Technical Trap" is nothing more than a temporary solution, but not a permanent solution.
However, the questions raised in this book are true: new technologies have improved efficiency and promoted economic growth, but for a period of time, some people have suffered losses because of the emergence of new technologies, and this influence is likely to accompany them for life.
However, the pursuit of labor saving and production efficiency is endless. It is difficult to find a perfect solution between technology based on the overall gift of human beings and the damage of some people’s interests, and probably only the lesser of the two evils can be achieved.
Original title: "Technology Trap: Invention and Impact"
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