Times change, countries rise and fall.

　　The rise and fall of a country is driven by long-term factors as well as accidental events. At present, during the epidemic period we are experiencing, the performance of the United States lacks global leadership, and the over-issuance of the US dollar has once again made people question its status as an issuer of abuse reserve currency. The newly released International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, and it fell to 60.89% at the end of 2019, the lowest in recent years, and the proportion of RMB is 1.96%.

　　We often follow Bridgewater Dario’s point of view. He believes that in the "great cycle" of national strength, the status change of reserve currency is the slowest. Before that, the change of national strength was already taking place. By studying the long-term history of many countries, we can reveal the most important influencing factors of the great cycle of national strength.

　　What are these factors? We share with you Dario’s recent articles published in LinkedIn.

　　This article will explain the essential motivation behind the rise and decline of the strongest country in history. This is the essence of the law that I showed when I studied the dynasty changes of the past three reserve currency countries: the Netherlands, Britain and the United States, and six other important powers: Germany, France, Russia, India, Japan and China in the past 500 years. Besides, I also specially studied all the generational changes in China since the Tang Dynasty. In addition to seeing the transfer of wealth and power, we have also seen changes in all aspects of daily life such as science and technology, culture and art. These individual case studies will be elaborated in detail in Part 2. When we switch back and forth between historical cases and the underlying paradigm, we can see how these cases show the underlying paradigm (Fit the archetype) and how the paradigm I summarized can describe the actual situation of these historical cases well (the law reflected by the paradigm will be exactly the sum average of historical events).

　　As I mentioned above, the most important task of this article is to show you the eternal and universal operation law behind the world as much as possible and use it for me. For me, this process makes me feel obligated and full of energy. As I mentioned in my previous article, my curiosity and anxiety about the world prompted me to uncover the law behind it, but when I really did research, the whole process brought me a much grander picture of the world than I expected. In my opinion, all this reveals more clearly how people and countries have risen and weakened for thousands of years. Behind these ups and downs, there is a huge cycle that goes hand in hand, but I never realized all this before.

　　Although the grand picture I will show you is my independent view, readers, I also need to declare to you that I can’t show you this picture without help from all sides. It comes not only from my hard study in the past 18 months, but also from my deep discussion with top scholars and doers, a lot of hard reading of historical works with profound insights in the past, and the hard research of top research teams, combined with my investment experience in the global scope in the past 50 years. With so much help, it takes courage, humility and continuous efforts to explain the law of the rise and fall of great powers in history, and there is no guarantee that everything I say is correct. However, I am sure that most of what I said is right, and I also understand that this law gives me a strong ability to predict the future, and I can predict scenes that we have never seen in my life, because these things have been happening repeatedly in the historical process of social development. My goal is to make all this clear to you after my hard research and practice, so that it can be used by you.

　　01

　　Study the screening principles of countries

　　Let me make it clear first that the big country we study is not necessarily the country with the best living standard. There are two reasons: first, although wealth and power are what most people pursue, some people and some countries do not think these things are the most important and will not consider fighting for them. For example, some people think that having a peaceful and fulfilling life is more important than having a lot of wealth and power. They don’t pursue wealth and power constantly, so they are not the object of study. Secondly, the countries studied do not include the so-called "boutique countries" (such as Switzerland and Singapore), which have high wealth and living standards, but are not large enough to become big countries.

　　How do people acquire wealth and power?

　　Let’s look at the big picture. Throughout the well-documented history, various forms of people (such as tribes, kingdoms, countries) have either created themselves or obtained wealth and power from others. When they gather more forces than any other organization, they become the world’s leading forces and then determine the world order. When they lost that power (as every big country did in the past), wealth, power and world order changed greatly, which had a great impact on economy, market and all aspects of life. In this chapter, we will study how many forces jointly determine the ups and downs of this cycle, so as to regularly make the wealth and power of big countries rise first, then maintain, and then decline (Causing the archetypal empire’s wealth and power to rise, be sustained, and then decline).

　　With the passage of time, the development of society and the improvement of productivity, the world’s total wealth, total rights and living standards have been continuously improved. In the whole human society, the gains from learning always outweigh the losses. Although due to the differences in education level, work ability and scientific and technological development level, different people’s learning productivity has increased at different speeds. Knowing this, those in power can make better policies and make the country develop better; Investors and company managers can therefore decide how to make better investments. Although the improvement of learning ability and productivity level is of great significance, they are constantly innovating, so they are not the cause of major changes in people with wealth and power.

　　The sharp fluctuation of wealth and power is caused by many factors, although I have identified 17 influencing factors, the most important of which is the currency and credit cycle. These powerful forces usually come together in classical cycles, which tend to form a very large ups and downs cycle in a complementary way and appear repeatedly throughout history. This huge archetypical cycle controls the rise and fall of empires, which affects everything, including their currencies and markets. Like the archetypical debt cycle I outlined in Debt Crisis-My Coping Principles, this cycle paradigm represents a typical debt cycle that we can compare with other debtors, including the debt cycle we are in now. Knowing this, we can try to get a glimpse of the future through the gap.

　　At the time of writing this article, we see that all these 17 forces are at work, and the most important ones are the debt cycle, the gap between the rich and the poor cycle and the global geopolitical cycle. As mentioned in the previous article, we recently lowered the interest rate to 0% during the economic downturn, and at the same time carried a lot of debts. This has led to a large number of government debts, and central banks are printing money for monetization. At the same time, there is a huge gap in politics and values between countries, and the emerging world power (China) is challenging the current world power (the United States). Although this situation has never happened in our life, it has happened many times in history (the most recent one happened in 1930-45). I will explain to you in this article that we are now experiencing an archetypal big shift in relative wealth and power, and with this change, we will witness the profound changes in the world order that have affected all countries.

　　The reason why the transfer of wealth and power between countries is often overlooked is that although it is rapidly forming, it has not suddenly appeared. This neglected but obvious thing shocked us. Most people don’t pay attention to the laws of history, so they can’t accurately understand our current situation. Therefore, in this article, I will describe in a very concise way how I view the archetypical mechanics behind the rise and fall of big countries and their market operations.

　　In order to see the whole picture of historical changes, you can’t get too entangled in details.

　　If I want to show you all this huge picture called "the changes of human history", then I can’t concentrate on presenting every detail. Similarly, as an appreciation of the scroll, please understand this and try to look at it from a macro and divergent perspective. This is because we are trying to understand and appreciate the evolution and changes that span a long period of history. In order to see these changes, we have to ignore some details. Of course, when we should stop and pay attention to the details (some specific details are very, very important), I will switch from macro narrative to micro-description, so that we can take a closer look at these details.

　　Examining what happened in the past from the grand perspective of human historical changes will fundamentally change the way we look at things. For example, many things we take for granted, many words we blurt out, did not exist in most historical periods. Therefore, I will try my best to present the whole historical picture to you vividly, but I won’t get entangled in all the details of history. However, in the cases we studied, I will present you with relatively complete details.

　　For example, we should carefully understand the differences between different countries, kingdoms, nations, nations, tribes, empires and dynasties. Nowadays, we mostly talk about (sovereign) countries, but it is well known that sovereign countries did not appear until the 17th century after the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Generally speaking, there was no modern country before that, only the kingdom could be seen. But in some places today, the kingdom still exists, and the boundaries with sovereign countries are unclear, and some places have both. Generally speaking, the kingdom is the smallest, the country is the second, and the empire is the largest, and the relationship between them is not clear. Britain was a kingdom at first, then evolved into a sovereign country, and finally became an empire whose borders extended beyond England, so that its leaders could control a vast area and many non-Anglo-Saxon people.

　　Similarly, each type of political entity (such as country, kingdom, tribe and empire) controls population in different ways, which puzzles those researchers who strive for perfection. In some cases, empire refers to the area occupied by the ruling power; Sometimes it refers to those areas that are influenced by the ruling power through threats and inducements. The British empire occupied the territory of the empire in general, while the United States controlled more countries by relying on the "carrot+stick" strategy. Although this is not entirely correct, at the time of writing, the United States has military bases in 70 countries, so it is obvious that there is an "American empire", but what it refers to is controversial. Anyway, I hope readers understand what I mean: trying to be precise in words may hinder me from conveying more important information. So in this article, you will have to put up with my ubiquitous uncertainty. You also need to understand why I collectively refer to these political entities as countries, even if it is not technically the case.

　　Some people may think that it is impossible for me to compare different countries and different systems at different times. I can understand this view, but I assure you that I will try my best to explain any differences, but the similarities between eternity and universality in history far outweigh the differences. It is extremely sad to let differences prevent us from seeing the laws of history clearly.

　　03 historical change and the cycle that goes hand in hand.

　　As mentioned above, the long-term progress of mankind depends on constantly doing things better, that is, improving productivity. In the long run, learning and constantly improving productivity is the most important force; Although economic cycle fluctuation is also important in the short term, it cannot change the long-term trend. The chart below shows the changes of global per capita production value (estimated real GDP) in the past 500 years, which can also illustrate this point.

　　Estimates of global GDP per capita in the past 500 years (based on 2017 US dollars, taking logarithm)

　　From this top-down perspective, we can observe that the growth rate of global per capita output was very slow in the early days, but the slope of the growth curve suddenly became steep around 1800, reflecting the rapid improvement of production efficiency. Such changes have benefited from the improvement of the education level of the whole people and the transformation of educational achievements into productive forces. This change is caused by many factors, which can be traced back to the invention of the printing press in Europe in the mid-15th century (China used it very early), which improved the knowledge and education level of more people and contributed to the Renaissance, the scientific revolution, the Enlightenment and the first industrial revolution in Britain.

　　The popularization of education has also shifted wealth and power from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy. In the agricultural economy, monarchs, nobles and churches jointly own land and make profits from it; In the industrial economy, capitalists create and own the means of production, and together with the (secular) government, they maintain a system that enables them to make profits and take power for a long time. In other words, this system has been operating since the industrial revolution; In this system, wealth and power come from the combination of educational resources, innovative ability and capitalist system, and are controlled by those in power and those who control capital and educational resources.

　　However, behind the track of relatively steady increase in productivity, it is a turbulent era that witnessed prosperity and depression and experienced revolution and war. However, these turbulent periods are still weak relative to the long-term progress trend, so they only show a weak swing in the chart. These swings seem intense to us as individuals, but only because our lives are short and small.

　　Take the Great Depression and the war between 1929 and 1945 as an example. For us, these 17 years have been long and full of shock. The following chart reflects this period (economic situation), which is taken from the above line chart (reflecting the 200-year change). As you can see, GDP per capita fell by about 10% during the Great Depression, and then recovered, while the US stock market fell by 85%. The Great Depression was followed by World War II, which increased the production of munitions. However, due to the destruction of a large number of means of production, it is inaccurate to call this period "the era of mass production", even on a per capita basis. At the end of the war, the global per capita GDP dropped by about 12%, a large part of which was caused by the economic collapse of the defeated countries.

　　It can be seen that between 1929-1933 and 1944-46, the global per capita GDP dropped by 10% and 12% respectively.

　　Although the first chart I showed reflects the productivity of the world (to the best of our ability), it does not show the transfer of wealth and power between countries. The chart below shows the relative wealth and national strength of 11 world powers in the past 500 years. This wealth and power index is calculated by eight indicators, which I will introduce in detail later. Even though these data are not accurate due to the age, they still perfectly reflect the macro trend. As you can see, almost all big countries have experienced a period of rise and decline. Thick lines are the four most important big countries: the Netherlands, Britain, the United States and China, which have respectively mastered the three recent reserve currencies in history. It is the present tense for the United States, the past tense for Britain, and earlier for the Netherlands. I mention China because it has grown into the second most powerful country and remained so powerful for most of the time before 1850.

　　Medium-short period evolution

　　The chart shows: 1. Although China’s position declined sharply after the 19th century, it has been in a dominant position for centuries (always surpassing Europe in commodity trade); 2. As a relatively small country, the Netherlands became the greatest empire in the world in the 17th century. 3. Britain followed the Dutch model and reached the peak of its national strength in the 19th century; 4. In the end, the United States surpassed several countries and remained a world power for 150 years, especially after World War II and the war. Today, China is catching up.

　　The next chart dates back to 600 AD. In order to make the chart look simple, I included 500 years in the above chart. Although 11 countries, 12 major wars and a long history of 500 years can hardly be described as "simple". Long-period evolution

　　As the picture shows, 1500 years ago, China was almost always the most powerful, although the Arab Empire, French Empire, Mongolian Empire, Spanish Empire and Ottoman Empire also rose.

　　How do we measure the wealth and power level of a country?

　　In the first two charts, I measure the wealth and national strength of countries, which is basically obtained by averaging eight indicators. They are 1. Education; 2. Competitiveness; 3. the level of science and technology; 4. Economic output; 5. Trade share; 6. Military strength; 7. Strength of financial center and 8. Reserve currency. We will further discuss the measure of power later, but let’s focus on these eight key elements first.

　　Taking the year when China became the world’s largest country as the origin, we list the changes of various indicators in each of the 120 years before and after. The following table is the average data of many countries, but most of the weights are given to three countries with reserve currencies (namely, the United States, Britain and the Netherlands).

　　Paradigm law

　　These charts tell a good story about how great powers rise and fall. I will introduce other factors later, but before I do, let me briefly introduce the cycle. The first thing to note is that all these indicators are curved before and after the rise of great powers, because these indicators always complement each other. That is, the advantages and disadvantages in education, competitiveness, economic output and world trade share can be logically transformed into other advantages or disadvantages. For example, well-educated people will create a more innovative, competitive and productive society.

　　I call this up-and-down swing of national strength "the great cycle". Please pay attention to the order in which these factors influence each other, because it reflects the process of the rise and fall of big countries. For example, education is always the leading indicator, but the change of reserve currency status is long overdue. This is because a strong education will bring advantages to most fields, including creating the most widely circulated currency in the world. Like the common language in the world, habit will amplify the strength of money itself and make it circulate more permanently.

　　04 great cycle

　　Broadly speaking, we can divide the rise and decline of empire into three stages: 1. The rise stage is characterized by gaining competitive advantage; 2. In its heyday, the country maintained its strong strength, but gradually laid a bitter fruit for losing its competitive advantage; And 3. In the weak stage, the self-strengthening mechanism in all aspects of the country has declined.

　　In short, a country can only go uphill when it has the following characteristics:

　　1. Strong and promising leadership: the premise of all successful elements.

　　2. Good education: including teaching knowledge and skills.

　　3. Rock-solid virtues, civic literacy and strong professional ethics: they are passed down through school and family education, and help civil society achieve the following achievements, such as:

　　Low corruption rate and high respect for social rules such as the rule of law.

　　People can not only unite, but also have a consensus on why they need to unite: when a group of people with abundant knowledge, advanced skills, good virtues and good civic literacy unite, they will create:

　　4. A good resource allocation system, and can …

　　Attracting the best talents in the world is the most important condition for a country to succeed, and then, this country will …

　　6. gain strong competitiveness in the international market, so that the national income far exceeds the expenditure, which contributes to

　　7. Strong income growth helps …

　　8. Increase investment in infrastructure, education and research and development, so as to obtain

　　9. Higher production efficiency: the improvement of production efficiency means the simultaneous improvement of productivity and wealth level. When the country’s production efficiency is high enough, they can invest and exhibit:

　　10. New technologies: These new technologies will have commercial or military value; As these countries become more competitive with the above factors, they will

　　11. Take more shares in the national trading system: this makes it necessary for them to establish:

　　12. Powerful military force: protect trade routes and expand its influence on other countries. With their economic advantages, they have developed into the world’s leading …

　　13. financial center, which can gather and finance capital: (Amsterdam was the world financial center when the Dutch empire dominated the world; After Britain replaced it, London became a financial center; And new york’s status now comes from the hegemony of the United States. But China is also developing its financial system with Shanghai as the center.) These expanding empires have …

　　14. Strong stock, currency and credit markets: The currencies of countries that dominate trade and capital flows naturally become the first choice for trading media and wealth reserves, and develop into reserve currencies. According to this logic, when the Dutch empire dominated, the Dutch guilder was the global reserve currency; During the British Empire, the pound inherited this status. When the US dollar became the global reserve currency in 1944, the United States was only one step away from winning World War II, and it was obviously in a leading position in economy, finance and military affairs. Using a country’s currency as a reserve currency will naturally give the country stronger borrowing and purchasing power. As shown in the above figure, the opportunity for a country to gain or lose its status as a global reserve currency is much later than its other strengths.

　　Through unremitting efforts and other complementary factors, the empires achieved their rise and maintained their national strength. The founders of those empires coordinated economic, political and military strength, and built an economic-political-military system that constantly benefited from the international community. The Dutch founded the Dutch East India Company, Britain founded the British East India Company, and the United States had a military-industrial complex. Facts have proved that this kind of economic, political and military cooperation is essential to the expansion of the empire.

　　However, the development of the empire always has its platform period, which is because behind the success of the country’s rise, it also lays the groundwork for future weakness. Specifically, it includes:

　　During the boom, people’s income increased, making labor more expensive; Compared with countries with lower wages for the same job, competitiveness naturally declines.

　　The development model of the most successful countries will be imitated by emerging competitors, and shine on you is often superior to Blue, which makes the leaders lose their competitive advantage. During the British-Dutch hegemony, the labor cost of British shipyards was lower than that of the Netherlands; Therefore, the former chose to hire Dutch engineers to design ships with higher cost performance than the Netherlands. Because the cost of time and money required for copying is less than that of invention and creation, other things being equal, emerging empires hitchhike in mature countries through copying.

　　In those countries that are born rich, people will reduce their workload and engage in more leisure and low-productivity activities; In extreme cases, it becomes decadent and incompetent. Especially when the backbone of society changes from a generation that must work hard to succeed to a generation that inherits wealth, the younger generation is often fragile and inexperienced, and it is more likely to be defeated when confronted with challenges. As time goes by, people in these prosperous societies are more eager to pursue a leisurely and luxurious life, so they do not hesitate to lose their strength, create bubbles, and finally become more vulnerable.

　　The richest and most powerful countries have the status of global reserve currency, which gives them the privilege of borrowing a lot, so that they are caught in a debt trap. A large number of loans have enhanced the consumption power of hegemonic countries in the short term, but in the long run it is just the opposite. In other words, when lending and consumption are strong, hegemonic countries seem to be strong, but their financial strength is eroded. This lending model enables domestic people to over-consume, and provides funds for expanding the army and launching wars to enhance forces other than basic national strength. This model can be maintained for a period of time, even self-strengthening, thus increasing the interest return of creditor countries, thus enhancing the status of reserve currency.

　　When rich countries borrow money from developing countries, it is also one of the early signs of wealth transfer. In the 1980s, the per capita income of the United States was 40 times that of China, but at that time, China had begun to buy US Treasury bonds because the US dollar was the global reserve currency. At the same time, it also became the starting point for China to catch up with the United States. Similarly, Britain borrowed heavily from much poorer colonies during World War II; The Netherlands did something similar before its national strength went downhill, but when the creditors refused to hold and sell the Dutch guilder, the Dutch debt structure collapsed instantly, and its monetary status and economic situation plummeted. The United States has also borrowed a lot of money and reduced its debt by issuing more money, but this has not shaken the status of the dollar and the US debt for the time being.

　　When the number one power keeps "expanding its territory" until it is no longer worthwhile to maintain it, the cost of maintaining the system becomes higher than the income. The unprofitable global power system will further hit its financial situation, as is the case in the United States today.

　　Because of unequal distribution, the success of economic development naturally widens the gap between the rich and the poor. Those who have wealth and power (such as those who profit from business activities or those in the government) take care of each other and maintain a system that is beneficial to them, while ordinary people lag far behind until the polarization between the rich and the poor has become intolerable injustice. The same is true in the United States today.

　　The foreshadowing of decline is always buried in the golden age, and the prosperous country will gradually decline in the downward trend. This decline is due to the fact that when the country is going downhill, the power that can compete with it has developed relatively in the above-mentioned fields.

　　When the national debt is high, the central bank can only make ends meet in the face of a weak economy, and the downward state leads to more debt and economic problems, the country has to print a lot of money and devalue its currency.

　　If the gap between the rich and the poor widens infinitely, social values are polarized, and economic pressure (no matter where the pressure comes from) cannot be released, it will be easy for the rich and the poor to fight, and the initial conflicts will intensify later. This usually encourages political extremism, that is, populism of reformists (people who try to redistribute wealth) and conservatives (people who want wealth to be in the hands of rich people such as capitalists). Both democratic and centralized countries may become the soil of populism.

　　When the rich are worried that their wealth will be taken away, or they will become the target of public criticism, they will transfer their wealth and life to places, assets or currencies that they think are safer. If this transfer is not explicitly prohibited, it will erode the tax and income of the place where the assets are transferred out, making it experience a typical vicious circle of asset hollowing out. Shrinking tax revenue is even worse, aggravating the tense situation, increasing tax revenue, forcing more rich people to leave, and other worse consequences. For example, we now observe that the root of some social problems is that the rich have fled the state with higher taxes because they don’t want to face the financial pressure and the gap between the rich and the poor. When the hollowing out of assets is too serious, the government will come forward to stop it-it is forbidden to continuously collect funds from the lost places to their new places, assets or currencies, and people who want to protect themselves will feel panic.

　　Events that shake the foundation will devour the country’s productive forces. The size of the wealth cake is a little smaller, and people are fighting for shrinking resources; The cake is drying up day by day, and people are fighting over how to distribute it. Populist leaders of different camps are clamoring hard in the wrestling, hoping to control the situation and reorganize the order. At this time, democracy is particularly precarious compared with centralization. This is why in the 1920s and 1930s, Germany, Japan, Italy and Spain (as well as some small countries) were all centralized and pulled out the flag of the democratic camp, while the major democratic countries (the United States, Britain and France) also had the shadow of centralization. It is generally believed that in chaotic times, centralized and rapid decision-making is preferable to democratic decision-making based on discussion. Therefore, when the mass struggle against discipline and resorting to violence appears, the movement is not without merit.

　　If a country has strong enough economic, geopolitical and military forces to challenge the existing dominant forces, then there are many potential conflicts between these competing powers. Because there is no system for peaceful adjudication of such disputes, conflicts have to be resolved through a head-on contest.

　　When the cost of maintaining the image of a big country is greater than the income it brings, the economic strength of the country is hollowed out. At the same time, other countries are on the rise, and the big countries that are already strong in the outside world do not want to give away their interests. This state will make a strong country face economic and military threats. In order to maintain its status as a big country, military spending has been expanding again and again, but the domestic economy has been depressed, making it more difficult for leaders to collect taxes and making them need more domestic support. Seeing this dilemma, the enemy countries have chosen to strike at the beginning of the signs of the decline of great powers. Then, the big countries will face the difficult choice of facing or retreating economically and militarily.

　　If other external shocks, such as natural disasters (plague, drought or flood), occur in a fragile period when big countries are struggling to cope with internal and external troubles, it is tantamount to injecting another destructive force into the process of national decline.

　　It is also a problem when the number of people in a country who are vegetarian is not enough for the country to win in this cycle. Of course, since each leader is only responsible for a short part of this cycle, they can only solve problems on the basis left by their predecessors, which means that the National Games can control everything better than the leaders.

　　In a word, due to the improvement of productivity, cakes are constantly expanding, and some cycles have emerged.

　　The construction period of the country’s peak. Due to:

　　1. Relatively low debt level

　　2. Relatively small wealth, value and political views gap.

　　3. People work together to create prosperity.

　　4. Good education and infrastructure

　　5. Competent leadership.

　　6. A peaceful world order led by one or more major powers.

　　When it flourished and declined, the country went to a period of deconstruction and reorganization. The reason for the country’s prosperity has gone to the opposite side and turned into a fatal weakness:

　　1. High debt

　　2. A huge gap in wealth, value and political views.

　　3. The cooperation between nationals broke down and they turned to attack each other.

　　4. Backward education and infrastructure

　　In order to maintain the state of over-expansion, great powers have gone through a painful period of struggle, destruction and reorganization under the challenge of new rising forces, which has given birth to a new order and laid the foundation for the coming of a new era.

　　Generally speaking, the 17 characteristic indicators in the figure below are the main forces driving the rise and fall of a country. For any country, the more each feature deviates to the left, the greater the possibility of its rise; The more you shift to the right, the greater the possibility of weakness. World powers tend to show more left-leaning characteristics, and under a virtuous circle, they continue to become stronger; However, if the management is not good, each characteristic index will shift to the right, and the country will go weak. At this time, new competitors can take the opportunity to rise, properly manage each characteristic index, and gradually the situation of strength has changed.

　　17 factors affecting the rise and fall of a country

　　In short, this is the reason why the rise and decline of great powers occur periodically. Now, I want you to do a little exercise: think carefully about whether the position of each characteristic index is to the left or to the right for the country/region you are interested in. What about the United States and China? What other countries are there? Make a judgment based on your intuition and compare it with my idea later. I will make a more systematic analysis of the characteristic indicators of these big countries later.

　　These positive and negative factors are actually intertwined and affect each other, bringing great changes to society. It is no coincidence that the huge gap between the rich and the poor, the debt crisis, the revolution, the war and the changes in the world pattern almost happened at the same time. The following picture outlines the history of the rise and fall of every big country very clearly. As shown in the shaded area in the figure below, the destruction and reorganization caused by depression, revolution and war have largely destroyed the old system and laid the foundation for the emergence of new systems. These great depressions often occur every 10 to 20 years, but there may be more variables in this time period. Followed by a beautiful new world, no country is willing to compete with the world hegemon for the top spot, and well-behaved people begin to work and develop harmoniously. Usually, these beautiful periods can last for 40 to 80 years, but there will be great fluctuations. In the above two big cycles, there are also some small cycles, such as short-term debt crisis/business cycle, which last for 7 to 10 years.

　　Reserve currency cycle

　　For example, the decline of a Dutch power gives way to a British power, or Britain gives way to the United States. Most of the following things will happen in this process:

　　Debt restructuring and debt crisis are internal conflicts in countries, which eventually lead to the redistribution of wealth, the collapse of the status of foreign war reserve currency and the collapse of a new generation of domestic and international order

　　The last Great Depression occurred in 1930-45, which promoted the reconstruction period that began in 1945. More specifically, the collapse and reorganization of the monetary and credit system led to the depression in 1930-45, which led to the establishment of a new global monetary system (Bretton Woods system) based on the dollar in 1944. The huge gap between the rich and the poor in the Roaring 20s narrowed due to depression and war, which led to a fundamental change in the distribution of wealth and rights, and the global war also changed the world pattern. After 1945, everything has undergone earth-shaking changes. The United States became the world hegemon, the gold standard shifted, and a global monetary and credit system based on the dollar was established.

　　Translator’s Note: This refers to the 1920s in the western context, which was a period of sustained economic prosperity. In the past ten years, it covered countless exciting events, so some people called it "the most colorful era in history".

　　In this new world dominated by the United States, the United States has taken the lead in wealth, economic strength and military strength. It is the richest country with 80% of the world’s gold reserves; It is a country with the highest economic strength in the world, and its production capacity accounts for half of the world’s output; It is also a military power with absolute advantages, monopolizing nuclear weapons and having the most powerful conventional forces. However, after 75 years, the world pattern has also undergone fundamental changes, which we will discuss further in the following chapters. At that time, we will also try to predict and interpret the possible future development direction.

　　Next, we will study each indicator more carefully. In the last chapter, I will summarize all these indicators and carefully infer how to make our future better in view of our current situation. In the second part, I will make a detailed interpretation of each country’s case.

　　[1] Short-term cycle evolution chart

　　As for the above figure, these indexes consist of many different statistical data, some of which can be directly compared, while others are only an estimate. The data in some countries are always discontinuous, so different data need to be spliced together. It should be noted that the line shown on the chart is the 30-year moving average of these indexes, and I have adjusted it, so there will be no lag. The moving average is chosen because it is less volatile and can filter out a lot of noise, making the direction of the big period clearer. For a longer-term interpretation, I will use these curves smoothed by the moving average; On the contrary, for some more detailed interpretations, the unprocessed curve may contain more information.

　　[2] Chart of Paradigm Law

　　Regarding the above figure, we show the relationship between these key indicators and history by anchoring specific time periods in history. The value "1" on the Y axis represents the peak value of this indicator relative to history, and "0" represents the bottom. The X-axis, that is, the time axis, is displayed in units of years, where "0" roughly represents the time when many indicators of the country reach the peak. In the rest of this section, we will introduce the stages of paradigm law in more detail. As for the indicator of global reserve currency, we will focus on China. Although it has been a big country for centuries, its currency has never become a global reserve currency. The reasons behind this are worthy of our further study.

　　(A global M&A investment transaction information manager at your fingertips)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Yijie DealGlobe. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

The word "InternetofThings" was born 15 years ago. In recent years, this "tall thing" has gradually entered our lives. The Internet of Things can connect all objects in a specific space environment, carry out anthropomorphic information perception and collaborative interaction, and has the behavioral ability of self-learning, processing, decision-making and control, thus completing intelligent production and service. At present, the Internet of Things is promoting the transformation of human society from "informationization" to "intelligence" and promoting great changes in information technology and industry. In the near future, the Internet of Things will powerfully change the environment in which we live and work, and bring us into an intelligent world.

The technical idea of Internet of Things is "connecting everything according to demand"

At the World Summit on the Information Society in 2005, the International Telecommunication Union formally put forward the concept of "Internet of Things", suggesting that the ubiquitous communication era of "Internet of Things" is coming, and all objects in the world, from tires to toothbrushes, from houses to paper towels, can actively exchange information through the Internet.

The technical idea of the Internet of Things is "connecting everything on demand". Specifically, all objects (including all entities and virtual physical objects and terminal equipment) that can be independently identified, including people, machines and objects, are connected everywhere according to requirements through various network technologies and information sensing equipment such as radio frequency identification (data exchange through radio to achieve information identification), infrared sensors, global positioning systems and laser scanners, and information transmission and collaborative interaction are carried out. In order to realize the intelligent information perception, identification, location, tracking, monitoring and management of objects, and build an intelligent service environment with the ability of anthropomorphic knowledge learning, analysis and processing, automatic decision-making and behavior control among all objects.

The information society is developing from the Internet era to the Internet of Things era. If the Internet takes people as the object of connection and service, then the Internet of Things is to expand the object of information network connection and service from people to things, so as to realize the "Internet of Everything". There are also differences in the demand satisfaction between the two: in the Internet age, the task of information network is to meet the demand of public information transmission; In the era of Internet of Things, the task of information network is to meet the specific requirements of intelligent services, which are mutually supportive and indispensable.

The future intelligent service system under the Internet of Things environment will become an important infrastructure in the future society. As the key to the technological innovation of the Internet of Things, the intelligent service system maps and cooperates the physical space of the real environment with the information space of the virtual environment to realize the integration of communication, calculation and control. Intelligent service system enables things and people to interact actively in a new way, thus knitting an intelligent collaborative network with endogenous interconnection in the physical world.

Remodeling the mode of production organization and promoting the industrial revolution

The Internet of Things has become an important driving force for the new round of global scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation. Driven by the rise of concepts, guided by demonstration applications, remarkable technological progress and gradual maturity of industries, the Internet of Things is accelerating its transformation into real scientific and technological productivity. If the technology that affects production tools and products will bring quantitative change, then the Internet of Things technology will bring qualitative change, because it will reshape the production organization. The technology industry of Internet of Things is developing rapidly around the world, and it is merging with manufacturing technology, new energy and new materials, stepping into the eve of industrial revolution and ushering in a great development era.

With the popularization of Internet of Things applications, trillions of new devices with different application requirements, such as smart wearable devices, smart home appliances, intelligent networked cars, intelligent robots, smart medical care, farmland water conservancy and municipal buildings, will be connected to the network. These applications are growing explosively and will form massive data, which will promote the production, life and social management to be more intelligent, networked and refined, and promote economic and social development to be more intelligent and efficient.

Integration and development with other high-tech technologies is an important feature of Internet of Things technology. At present, the Internet of Things is promoting the penetration of next-generation information technologies such as 5G, narrowband Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and edge computing into various fields, triggering major changes in the global industrial division of labor. In terms of networking, low-power WAN technology is rapidly emerging and gradually commercialized around the world, and the standardization process of 5G technology for wide coverage and low latency scenarios of the Internet of Things is accelerating. At the same time, industrial Ethernet, short-distance communication and other related communication technologies have developed rapidly, providing good technical support for the intelligent on-demand networking and interconnection of people, machines and things. In information processing, information perception, knowledge representation, machine learning and other technologies have developed rapidly, greatly improving the intelligent data processing capability of the Internet of Things. In terms of virtual platform of Internet of Things, digital twinning and operating system, based on the wide application of cloud computing and open source software, the ecological threshold for enterprises to build is effectively lowered, and the progress of public service platform and operating system of Internet of Things is promoted worldwide.

The Internet of Things brings digital and intelligent changes, which can change many industries. One of the most representative concepts is the "industrial Internet". In 2011, after the concept of "Industry 4.0" was first put forward by Germany, many countries have followed suit. The concept of "industrial Internet" proposed by General Electric Company of the United States is a high integration of global industrial systems with advanced computing, analysis, sensing technology and the Internet, which means connecting people, data and machines on the basis of the Internet of Things, so that equipment, production lines, factories, suppliers, products and customers can cooperate closely with each other on demand, comprehensively apply big data analysis technology and remote control technology, and optimize the operation and maintenance of industrial facilities and machines. Improve the intelligent level of industrial manufacturing through networked intelligent means, and form an interconnected industrial chain across equipment, systems, factories and regions, thus improving efficiency and promoting the intelligence of the entire manufacturing service system. As an important support for the development of China’s intelligent manufacturing industry, the industrial Internet has been highly valued by the Chinese government. The 13th Five-Year Plan, the State Council’s Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting internet plus Action and Guiding Opinions on Deepening the Integration and Development of Manufacturing Industry and the Internet all clearly put forward the development of industrial Internet.

Due to the bright future, all countries in the world are accelerating to seize the development opportunities of the Internet of Things industry. At the industrial level, related large companies have formulated the development strategy of the Internet of Things, and quickly laid out key industries and key links in the industrial chain through cooperation and mergers and acquisitions, so as to enhance their position in the whole industry. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Qualcomm and other world-renowned enterprises have all laid out the Internet of Things from different links and levels.

Intelligent production and intelligent life are opening.

The development of the Internet of Things has drawn a beautiful blueprint for the intelligent world for human society. Then, from the abstract concept to the concrete application, how does the Internet of Things relate to our production and life?

At present, the practical application of the Internet of Things has made remarkable achievements in manufacturing, agriculture, home, transportation and car networking, medical and health care and other fields. At present, the number of active Internet of Things terminal devices in the world has exceeded 50 billion, and the trillion-dollar vertical industry market is emerging.

In terms of production, the Internet of Things has a far-reaching impact on industry and agriculture. At present, the industrial Internet environment can obtain and analyze data from the terminal devices connected to the network. Combined with the remote monitoring and control equipment to monitor the industrial system, it can realize the seamless integration of various manufacturing equipment with sensing, identification, processing, communication, driving and networking functions. The related production materials are electronically identified by technologies such as radio frequency identification to realize the intelligent management of production process and supply chain, and the real-time collection and data analysis of production status information are strengthened by technologies such as sensors to improve efficiency and quality, and promote safe production and energy conservation and emission reduction.

In the field of smart agriculture, the Internet of Things helps "intensive cultivation". By collecting data of temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed, plant diseases and insect pests and soil content of planting environment, intelligent processing and decision-making of farming can be realized. Even the data obtained from the Internet of Things can be applied to the precise fertilization plan, so as to minimize the risk and waste and reduce the workload required for crop management.

In life, home, transportation, medical care and health are all places where the Internet of Things comes into play. Smart home integrates information technology with indoor goods and facilities, people’s indoor life, safety protection and other aspects to promote the informationization and intelligence of home and security services. For example, voice control can help users with poor eyesight or mobility difficulties, alarm systems can be connected to cochlear implants worn by users, and monitoring systems can also alarm health accidents such as falls or epilepsy. Intelligent transportation and car networking are also inseparable from the Internet of Things technology. Seamless connection between different elements can realize various scene applications such as in-vehicle and out-of-vehicle communication, intelligent traffic control, intelligent parking, electronic toll collection system, vehicle management control and so on. For example, in the management of logistics fleet, we can check the position and status of goods through wireless sensors and send an alarm when it is abnormal. Smart medical care can realize rapid tracking and positioning of drugs and health care products by using Internet of Things technology, and reduce supervision costs; By establishing a clinical data application center, precision medical applications based on intelligent perception of the Internet of Things and big data analysis can be developed; You can also make full use of smart wearable devices (smart bracelets, smart rings, etc.) and radio frequency identification technologies to collect residents’ health information and establish a cloud service platform for innovative management of health big data.

The Internet of Things has become one of the important trends in the development of global information technology, and its appearance and rise have brought rare opportunities for China’s scientific and economic development. We should seize the opportunity to create the future and build an intelligent digital China.(Author:Zhu Hongbo,Director of china institute of communications Internet of Things Committee)

　　Recently, "Sheep Got a Sheep" has exploded the circle of friends. Among many players, some people play until the early hours of the morning, some people fall short of their anger value, some people study hard to crack the raiders, and some people have silently memorized the advertising lines … … Others understand life through games — — The card face is very complicated, and the difficulties are layer after layer. There are only a few slots, but no one wants to forget it.

　　With the explosion of the game, there are various questions around the game. In this regard, Zhang Jiaxu, the founding team of "A Sheep" and the founder of Jianyou Technology, admitted that the players’ joys and sorrows can be accepted. "This means that he really participated."

　　No algorithmic control

　　Put the game experience first.

　　At 10 o’clock on the evening of September 15th, Zhang Jiaxu walked out of the simple tour office and went into the kebab shop to buy dinner for the team.

　　The young team in the room are all working at full capacity. The corner of the office is piled with the latest rations — — Boxes of drinks, mineral water, half-eaten cakes and moon cakes. On this day, Zhang Jiaxu’s mobile phone is not idle for a moment.

　　Beiqing Daily: Why is the game called "Sheep Made a Sheep"?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: If there is no other consideration, I hope that users can remember it. Sometimes the name that comes out of hard thinking is not so interesting. Playing games and playing games are actually the same, both of which are a kind of playing mentality.

　　Beiqing Daily: Can anyone pass the second level?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: Of course. Yesterday, we saw a host broadcasting LOL live. He was playing "Sheep Got a Sheep" and suddenly passed the test. He immediately jumped up to celebrate. He was so excited that LOL stopped broadcasting and shouted "Pass the test, pass the test" with his mobile phone. In the final analysis, in our hearts, the bottom line of social games is truth and fairness. According to the internet, we have algorithmic control, absolutely not.

　　Beiqing Daily: Some screenshots circulated on the Internet show that the last few pieces cannot be eliminated. Is this a bug?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: The arrangement method and parallax make people feel that there are only two pieces left. In fact, there are still under these two squares, but they are just stacked. If there are random shuffling props at this time, they will pass.

　　Beiqing Daily: Many players are criticizing this game. What do you think?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: We can accept players’ likes or curses. When the player is emotional, it actually means that he really participates and thinks the game is fun.

　　Beiqing Daily: Some netizens said that the game on the short video platform is relatively simple. Is that right?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: Absolutely impossible. There is a lot of piracy now, and I can only guarantee that our games are the same on all platforms. In fact, it will be easier if players from different platforms are placed under different servers. But we try our best to integrate the game under one server, just hoping that all players can play the game together. This atmosphere is very important. If different platforms play their own games, the feeling will change.

　　These choices are the most difficult for us. For the fun of the game, no matter how difficult it is, we have to carry it over. We can’t choose to disperse players just because we are worried about the pressure on the server. We have our own requirements and rules for social games, and the game experience must be the first.

　　Beiqing Daily: How do you understand social games?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: Let me give you an example. If friends chat is added to the game, it is the game+social elements. But now all our games are designed based on the social system.

　　Players spit, complain, and seek friends’ cooperation and help, which will stimulate social points. When the game is challenging, how difficult it is, how excited he is when he passes the customs. We saw someone posting that "I’m going to put it in my resume after passing the customs". You can feel the excitement of the game for him, which is the fun of the game.

　　Team members "become monks halfway"

　　Net transmission revenue data is not true.

　　Beiqing Daily: Did you expect this game to explode?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: Not at all. It has far exceeded expectations. I have done Pirates Coming before, and the highest number is 25 million DAU (the number of daily active users). I have also witnessed 9 million DAU of Idiom Little Scholar before. I have experienced these big DAU products, but now the data of "Sheep Has a Sheep" has completely exceeded my cognition.

　　Beiqing Daily: Is the revenue data of "Sheep Got a Sheep" circulating on the Internet true?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: Those are fake. We didn’t open the banner window on this project. Normally, banner’s income can account for a large part of operating income. However, for the sake of the player experience, we are afraid that the player will miss the operation, so we have removed all these banner and removed the content that is detrimental to the user experience. Now only the advertising video is added, or it is added on the basis of not affecting the game itself. Players can experience the game content normally without watching the video. We are the kind of people who simply make content products.

　　Beiqing Daily: What are you busy with now?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: In addition to dealing with the attack, what we need to do is to hope that the heat will come down. Now everyone is over-interpreting what we said before.

　　(Looking at the mobile phone) Alas, it crashed again. We have been attacked these days because many pirated games are online. They want to attack us, as long as we hang up our game, players don’t know whose game it is, so they play theirs. These are things we didn’t prepare, and we didn’t think of them at all.

　　Recently, team members will basically work all night, and the small partners in technical positions will work harder. When they are tired, they will go to the lounge upstairs. Other small partners are also continuing to work hard for this project. The skin of our WeChat red envelope is ready and ready to find opportunities to distribute it to players.

　　Beiqing Daily: How was "Sheep Made a Sheep" planned?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: We have two main planners, and the rest of the main creative team members will also participate. Finally, I will make the balance. The three groups that developed "The Sheep Made a Sheep" have interesting backgrounds. One of the planners was a little girl in 1998, who used to work in administration. We valued her enthusiasm and recruited her. I didn’t expect her to have a strong learning ability. One is the creator development from Android to IOS, and he built the server by himself. We don’t have much budget, and this little friend writes while learning. The "art" of this game used to be a heavy game, and this is the first time to play a casual game.

　　Our team hasn’t improved for a long time, so I advised them to "wait, work harder and work harder". Later, on a small project, "A Sheep Got a Sheep" was mutated. We did this game for three months, and finally found this design the most interesting. After revision, it was directly launched. The success of "Sheep Made a Sheep" is attributed to every small partner in the team. We got together because of our love, and we always felt that we would have a chance to prove ourselves. Unexpectedly, this small project suddenly caught fire, and we have invested more in the main project, and there is no progress yet.

　　I hope the heat will come down.

　　Give happiness to real players.

　　Beiqing Daily: When did you decide to play social games?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: I came from a "technical" background. After graduating from college, I played games with a friend’s entrepreneurial team. Later, I joined the game factory, and I came out to start a business again last year, trying to prove myself by playing games myself.

　　The simple tour is also set up to make good games, play fun games and connect people. The team is a small partner who really plays games, and the moral of the simple tour is to play simple and fun games.

　　Beiqing Daily: What did you say to the team these days when the game exploded?

　　Zhang Jiaxu: I told them, everyone here, this is definitely something we should be proud of in our life. We thought it would be enough to earn 100 thousand yuan for this game, but now it has far exceeded our expectations. Do we have any other hopes? Not really.

　　So I told everyone that no matter what happens, we should treat it with a normal heart. This is not our last game. If this company wants to continue, we will continue to produce better games. Don’t be fooled by these things.

　　From my point of view, running a company itself is like a game. Whether you are a company or a game, everyone is a player in the game. I respect every player and every employee. I treat my employees the way I treat my players.

　　I hope everyone plays games for fun. We don’t want to cause such a big discussion, because the game will quarrel and grab hot search, which will affect social resources too much, which makes the game meaningless.

　　Friends who like to play this game can play quietly; If you don’t like it, turn around and leave, we won’t stay, and give happiness to the real players. We just made a little game, and we don’t want this thing to ferment all the time. Now that the heat has cooled down, I am actually very happy and finally return to the essence of our game.

　　This edition/Deng Peijun Our reporter Zhang Zhiyi Co-ordinates/Lin Yan Zhang Bin

　　Chaoliu archives

　　"The sheep gave birth to a sheep" is a small game to break through the customs, and the customs clearance rate is less than 0.1%. The game is to find three identical patterns in the overlapping squares and put them in the lower card slot to eliminate them. Up to 7 cards can be stored in the card slot. The home page of the game also has a player ranking table, which ranks players in different regions. After the game is cleared, it can enter the regional list to help the regional ranking.

　　According to the enterprise survey data, Beijing Jianyou Technology Co., Ltd. is jointly held by Zhang Jiaxu, Xiamen Thunder Network Technology Co., Ltd. and Beijing Leshan Technology Co., Ltd., among which Xiamen Thunder Network is a subsidiary of Gigabit, which became a shareholder in June 2022 and holds 10% of the shares of Jianyou Technology, making it the second largest shareholder.

　　According to the relevant information, Jianyou Technology has registered the software copyright of "Sheep Made a Sheep". The first publication date of the game is June 13, and the registration approval date is July 29.

　　Recently, many places have further optimized the housing provident fund policy: the down payment ratio of the first and second housing provident fund loans has been reduced to 20%, and the amount of provident fund loans has been raised to one million yuan. It is worth noting that some first-tier cities such as Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen have also introduced optimization measures.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter that the recent intensive adjustment of housing provident fund policies in many places across the country was mainly due to the fact that the property market weakened again in the second quarter, and all localities generally increased their support for the real estate industry. Appropriately optimizing the household provident fund policy within the scope of its own authority is in line with the principle of city-specific policy, and is conducive to supporting rigid and improved housing demand. It is an important part of the current policy combination boxing in various places.

　　The first and second sets of provident fund loans in many places

　　Down payment reduced to 20%

　　Recently, many places have optimized the provident fund policy and reduced the down payment ratio of the first or second housing provident fund loans.

　　For example, Bijie Housing Provident Fund Management Center of Guizhou Province issued six new measures to support employees to purchase houses, including adjusting the maximum loan amount, implementing preferential policies for families with many children, reducing the down payment ratio of second homes, etc., to support the rigid and improved demand for housing provident fund to pay employees to buy houses.

　　Among them, in terms of reducing the down payment ratio of the second suite, the above measures pointed out that if the paid employees settle the housing loan of the first suite, the minimum down payment ratio for purchasing the second suite to apply for provident fund loans will be adjusted from 30% to 20%; If the first suite of employees is paid as a commercial loan, the minimum down payment ratio for applying for the second suite personal housing provident fund loan is 30%.

　　In addition to reducing the down payment ratio of the second suite, Lianyungang and other places have recently lowered the down payment ratio of the first suite. On June 26th, Lianyungang Housing and Construction Bureau issued the Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market to reduce the down payment ratio of housing provident fund loans. Specifically, the minimum down payment ratio will be adjusted from 30% to 20% if the employees’ families are paid to purchase the first set of housing for provident fund loans.

　　In addition to the adjustment of the down payment ratio, the maximum amount of provident fund loans in many places has also increased significantly. At present, among the first-tier cities, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen all propose to increase the amount of provident fund loans for families with many children. Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on June 28th. In order to implement the positive birth support measures, if families with two or more children (at least one child is underage) use housing provident fund loans to purchase the first self-occupied housing, the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans will rise by 30%. In addition, Shanghai has implemented the housing provident fund support policy for families with many children, and the maximum loan limit for eligible families has been raised by 20%.

　　Wang Qing said that the recent continuous optimization of policies and measures by first-tier cities in terms of provident fund will help to reverse the weak property market since May. More importantly, this has released a signal that the policy of stabilizing the property market will be further overweight, which will drive other second-and third-tier cities to actively implement policies and guide the national real estate market to stabilize and recover as soon as possible.

　　Stable property market policy

　　Or continue to be introduced.

　　Since the beginning of this year, housing purchase support policies have been introduced intensively in various places, among which optimizing the provident fund policy is one of the important means to support housing consumption in various places. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the Central Finger Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that since 2023, many policies have been introduced to increase the amount of provident fund loans, reduce the down payment ratio of provident fund, allow provident fund to pay down payment, support "business-to-public" loans, and increase the amount of provident fund for renting houses, which will not only increase the support of provident fund for buyers, but also improve the efficiency of provident fund use.

　　Chen Wenjing believes that there were some limitations in the extraction of housing provident fund before, but the policies of paying down payment and rent by urban provident fund and piloting flexible employment provident fund were introduced one after another, which expanded the scope of the use of provident fund, reflecting that the policies of various cities were more flexible, and there was still room for further improvement in most urban provident fund policies.

　　For the future, Wang Qing believes that the recent policies are increasing the support from both the supply and demand sides of the real estate industry, in combination with the gradual introduction of moderate relaxation of restrictions on purchases and sales, the issuance of housing subsidies, the extension of the time limit for the payment of land transfer fees, the implementation of the dynamic adjustment mechanism of mortgage interest rates, the increase of housing provident fund support, and the central bank’s continued implementation of the loan support plan for guaranteed housing. To some extent, this can also be regarded as an integral part of "strengthening macro-policy control". The follow-up real estate support policies are expected to be further strengthened, among which it is most critical to guide the downward trend of residential mortgage interest rates. (Reporter Peng Yu)

Hang Jian Shi Fa [2020] No.164

District, county (city) Construction Bureau, the relevant units:

As the pneumonia epidemic in Covid-19 has had a certain impact on the project performance of the projects under construction in our city and the newly started projects after the holiday, in order to actively guide the parties to the construction project contract to negotiate amicably, share the risks and losses reasonably, reduce the contradiction of project settlement and ensure the smooth implementation of the project, according to the spirit of the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Epidemic Prevention and Control to Support the Development of Enterprises (Zhejiang Construction Office [2020] No.10) and other documents, combined with the practical problems existing in the projects under construction in our city, the "Covid-19 Pneumonia in Hangzhou" is formulated. These Detailed Rules put forward the principle of negotiation from eight aspects: adjustment of contract period, adjustment of epidemic prevention and control measures, adjustment of labor cost, material cost and machinery cost, loss treatment during shutdown, cost of catch-up measures to ensure the construction period, cost of construction efficiency reduction, cost of isolation and protection measures, and calculation of Jian ‘an project cost of emergency rush construction project, which is applicable to construction projects affected by Covid-19 pneumonia epidemic within the administrative area of this Municipality. For the calculation standard of government-invested construction project cost specified in the Detailed Rules, other sources of funds can refer to the implementation.

　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　Hangzhou Urban and Rural Construction Committee

　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　 June 10, 2020

Guiding rules for contract and price adjustment of projects under construction during pneumonia epidemic in Covid-19, Hangzhou.

A, about the contract period adjustment

If the construction project is delayed due to epidemic prevention and control, the construction period shall be extended, and the liability for breach of contract due to the delay caused by force majeure shall be exempted. Because the actual situation of different projects is different and affected by the epidemic situation, both parties need to reasonably negotiate and determine the extension of the construction period according to the actual situation of the project and considering the factors such as labor, material shortage and construction efficiency reduction. The specific treatment methods are classified as follows:

(a) the original plan during the Spring Festival does not stop the project, because of the epidemic prevention and control caused by the shutdown, the contracting parties can be based on the actual project with reference to the following methods to calculate the extension of the construction period:

The number of days to postpone the construction period = the calendar days from the date when the local government started the first-level response to major public health emergencies to the date when the project officially resumed work+the number of days of compensation for construction degradation.

The official resumption date of the project refers to the specific date determined by the contracting parties through consultation according to the actual situation of the project, and confirmed by the employer and the supervision unit on the application report or other forms of written materials submitted by the contractor.

During the epidemic prevention and control period, due to the influence of material supply, shortage of personnel, local epidemic prevention and control regulations, etc., if the resumed project fails to fully enter the construction state, the contractor and the contractor may appropriately consider the corresponding days of construction reduction compensation when determining the extension of the construction period through consultation according to the actual situation, and the specific days shall be determined by the contractor and the contractor themselves through consultation.

(II) For the project that was originally planned to be shut down during the Spring Festival, if the actual shutdown time exceeds the original plan due to the epidemic, the contracting parties may calculate the extended construction period according to the actual situation of the project with reference to the following methods:

Days to postpone the construction period = calendar days from the date of planned resumption of work after the Spring Festival holiday agreed by the contracting parties to the date of formal resumption of work of the project+days of compensation for construction degradation.

The official resumption date of the project refers to the specific date determined by the contracting parties through consultation according to the actual situation of the project, and confirmed by the employer and the supervision unit on the application report or other forms of written materials submitted by the contractor.

During the epidemic prevention and control period, due to the influence of material supply, shortage of personnel, local epidemic prevention and control regulations, etc., if the resumed project fails to fully enter the construction state, the contractor and the contractor may appropriately consider the corresponding days of construction reduction compensation when determining the extension of the construction period through consultation according to the actual situation, and the specific days shall be determined by the contractor and the contractor themselves through consultation.

(3) If the construction of the project that was not stopped during the Spring Festival and continued during the epidemic prevention and control period is affected due to the shortage of materials, personnel and local epidemic prevention and control regulations, the contracting parties may, according to the actual situation, determine the number of days of compensation for construction efficiency reduction through consultation.

(4) Except for the above situations (1), (2) and (3), both parties can negotiate the reasonable extension of the construction period by themselves in combination with the actual situation of the project delay.

Two, about the epidemic prevention and control measures fee plan.

During the period of epidemic prevention and control, for projects that continue to be constructed or resume work, please refer to the Notice of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on Doing a Good Job in Epidemic Prevention and Control to Support the Development of Enterprises (ZJZ [2020] No.10), Notice on Adjusting the Standard of Special Expenses for Epidemic Prevention and Control (ZJZ [2020] No.8) and Notice on Implementing the Standard of Adjusting Special Expenses for Epidemic Prevention and Control. During the period of epidemic prevention and control, the contractor shall make a dynamic registration of the actual number of people in place at the construction site (including on-site labor workers and construction management personnel), and the employer shall make a visa for the actual number of people in place at the site reported by the contractor. The special funds for epidemic prevention and control are calculated and taken according to different levels of epidemic prevention and control:

(a) during the period of the first-level response to epidemic prevention and control, the special expenses for epidemic prevention and control will be 40 yuan per person per day.

(two) in the epidemic prevention and control of secondary response period of construction, epidemic prevention and control of special expenses from the original 40 yuan per person per day to adjust to 15 yuan per person per day.

(3) From the third-level response of epidemic prevention and control, the expenses incurred by the construction project due to epidemic prevention and control shall be settled through consultation between the contracting parties. For the Hangzhou municipal government investment project, the special expense for epidemic prevention and control during the third-level response period is 5 yuan per person per day.

The adjustment time of the emergency response level of the secondary and tertiary epidemic prevention and control in the project location shall be based on the time announced by the local COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control headquarters (leading group) of the city, district and county (city).

During the shutdown of the project, the expenses of epidemic prevention management and epidemic prevention materials that need to be increased by the left-behind personnel at the construction site due to epidemic prevention and control shall be considered separately in the expenses standard for left-behind personnel in the first paragraph of Article 4 "Disposal of losses during shutdown".

Iii. Adjustment of labor cost, material cost and machinery cost

During the epidemic prevention and control period and after the termination, if the price of labor, equipment, materials and machinery rises sharply, the contracting parties can reasonably share the project content after the resumption of work according to the actual situation of the project according to the following principles:

(1) If the construction contract has agreed on the risk adjustment scope of the price fluctuation range of labor and materials (equipment), the labor and material prices shall be reasonably shared by the contracting parties according to the risk range and scope agreed in the contract.

(II) If the construction contract does not stipulate the risk adjustment range of the price fluctuation range of labor and materials (equipment), the contracting party and the issuing party may, according to the actual situation of the project and market factors, sign a supplementary agreement in time to reasonably agree on the adjustment method of the price risk sharing of labor materials, and the price risk range of labor materials borne by the contractor is generally not higher than 5%. The price risk range of artificial materials for construction projects invested by Hangzhou Municipal Government is implemented according to the Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening the Dynamic Management of Market Factor Prices of Construction Projects in Hangzhou (Hangjian Shifa [2018] No.579).

(3) If the construction contract stipulates that the price of labor and materials will not be adjusted or the original price adjustment method makes it difficult to implement the follow-up project in obviously unfair, both parties can sign a supplementary agreement in time according to the actual situation of the project and market factors, and in accordance with the principle of changing the situation, so as to reasonably agree on the adjustment method of labor material price risk sharing, and the risk range of labor material price borne by the contractor is generally not higher than 5%. The price risk range of artificial materials for construction projects invested by Hangzhou Municipal Government is implemented according to the Guiding Opinions on Further Strengthening the Dynamic Management of Market Factor Prices of Construction Projects in Hangzhou (Hangjian Shifa [2018] No.579).

(4) In EPC and other forms of general contracting contracts, if the fluctuation risk of market factors is not adjusted as originally agreed in the contract, considering the impact of epidemic situation, the contracting parties may, according to the principle of changing the situation, negotiate their own adjustment methods for the implementation part affected by epidemic situation and make it clear in the form of supplementary agreement.

Four, about the loss treatment during the shutdown.

(1) For projects with construction contracts, property losses and cost increases caused by shutdown due to epidemic prevention and control shall be implemented in accordance with the contract. If there is no agreement or unclear agreement in the contract, the contractor and the contractor shall share the corresponding losses reasonably and sign a supplementary agreement based on the principle of risk sharing, and the compensation fee for shutdown losses shall be calculated as construction value-added tax. The specific treatment method is as follows:

1. During the shutdown period caused by epidemic prevention and control, the expenses of the necessary personnel (laborers and managers) left by the contractor at the construction site shall be borne by the employer, and the expenses for the stoppage of construction machinery and the use of reusable materials shall be reasonably shared by both parties through consultation. The contractor shall collect and save the list of left-behind personnel, expense vouchers, the idle situation of on-site construction machinery and equipment and other necessary written materials or video materials as the measurement basis for cost settlement, and the employer shall do a good job in relevant visa work.

The relevant cost sharing during the shutdown of Hangzhou municipal government investment projects shall be implemented in accordance with the following standards and regulations:

(1) Compensation standard for expenses of left-behind personnel on the construction site during shutdown: the laborer during the first-level response of epidemic prevention and control is 140 yuan/person-day, and the manager (including the project manager) is 240 yuan/person-day; During the second-level response period of epidemic prevention and control, the number of laborers is 115 yuan/person-day, and the number of managers (including project managers) is 215 yuan/person-day; During the three-level response period of epidemic prevention and control, the number of laborers was 105 yuan/person-day, and the number of managers (including project managers) was 205 yuan/person-day. The above expense standards have included the expenses of epidemic prevention management and epidemic prevention materials increased by the left-behind personnel due to epidemic prevention and control.

(2) During the period when the construction machinery is stopped, the machine-team expenses shall be shared in the following order and method:

(1) The construction machinery listed in Zhejiang Province Construction Machinery Machine-team Expense Quota shall be charged according to the principle of stagnant machine-team expense calculation, and the calculation formula is as follows:

Cost of stagnant machine-team of construction machinery borne by the Employer = number of days of shutdown ×1 machine-team/day × unit price of stagnant machine-team.

(2) The construction machinery not specified in the "Zhejiang Province Construction Machinery Machine-team Cost Quota" can be determined by the contracting parties through consultation within 50% of the market rental price of machinery and equipment released by the municipal engineering cost management department. The calculation formula is:

Staying machine-team expenses of construction machinery borne by the Employer = number of days of shutdown ×1 machine-team/day × unit price of mechanical equipment leasing × share ratio borne by the Employer (the share ratio is recommended to be determined through negotiation between 30% and 50%).

(In the above formula, if the released market lease price of machinery and equipment is in the form of monthly lease, the unit price of construction machinery leasing machine team = monthly lease price of machinery and equipment ÷30 days ÷ 1.5; If the published rental price of machinery and equipment is in the form of daily rent, the unit price of construction machinery rental machine-team = daily rental price of machinery and equipment ÷ 1.5; If the rental price of machinery and equipment is charged by the hour, the unit price of construction machinery leasing machine-team = hourly rental price of machinery and equipment ×8 hours)

(3) For those items that are not listed in the Zhejiang Province Construction Machinery Machine-team Expense Quota or the rental information price of the machinery and equipment market, on the basis of the inquiry in the rental market, the contractor and the contractor shall negotiate and determine the reasonable share of the expenses within 50% of the inquiry price. For the calculation formula and the conversion method of the unit price of the rental machine-team, refer to Article (2).

(3) The use fee of reusable materials during the shutdown period can be determined by the contracting parties through consultation within 50% of the rental price of reusable materials market released by the municipal engineering cost management department. If the market rental price information has not been released, on the basis of the inquiry in the rental market, the cost sharing can be determined by both parties through consultation within 50% of the inquiry price, and the calculation formula is as follows:

Royalty for the use of reusable materials undertaken by the Employer = days of shutdown × daily rental unit price of reusable materials × rental quantity of reusable materials at the site during shutdown × share ratio undertaken by the Employer (the share ratio is recommended to be determined through negotiation between 30% and 50%).

(In the above formula, if the published market rental price of reusable materials is monthly, the daily rental unit price of reusable materials = monthly rental price of reusable materials ÷30 days; For turnover materials that have not released market lease price information, the conversion method of daily lease unit price for market inquiry pricing is the same as above)

(4) Other unknown matters shall be determined by both parties through negotiation.

2. If the project that was not stopped during the Spring Festival is stopped due to epidemic prevention and control, the employer shall bear the increase in the cost of project cleaning and repair after the project is postponed.

3. During the shutdown period caused by epidemic prevention and control, the Employer has asked the contractor to take care of the contract project and the materials and equipment to be installed delivered to the construction site, and the Employer shall bear the actual increased reasonable expenses. If the contractor’s poor care causes damage to the contract project itself and the materials and equipment to be installed delivered to the construction site, the contractor shall bear the damage.

(2) For the project that adopts the general contracting contract, if there is no agreement in the special terms and conditions of the contract, the contractor shall bear the shutdown losses caused by the epidemic according to the general terms and conditions in the Model Text of the General Contracting Contract for Construction Projects (Trial) (GF-2011-0216).

Five, about the cost of the measures to ensure the construction period.

For key projects and people’s livelihood security projects that cannot meet the requirements of the original contract construction period due to the delay of the construction period caused by the epidemic, if the employer requests to catch up on the work, the employer shall bear the additional cost of catching up on the work. On the premise of ensuring the quality and safety of the project, the contracting parties shall reasonably determine the plan of measures to catch up with the work and adjust the corresponding project price. Any of the following methods can be used to calculate the cost of additional measures to catch up with work:

(1) The increased cost of rush measures shall be determined by the contracting parties through consultation in combination with the approved plan of rush measures. If the subsequent construction period is shortened by less than 30% due to the epidemic, the labor cost and machinery cost of the remaining construction period shall be taken as the charging base and calculated at a certain rate, which shall not be lower than the cost calculated according to the corresponding standard of "Increase Fee for Early Completion" in Zhejiang Construction Project Valuation Rules (2018 Edition).

The proportion of shortened construction period = (the number of days to catch up with work/the remaining construction period of the contract) ×100%

In the above formula, the "remaining construction period of the contract" = the calendar days of the construction period agreed in the original construction contract+the days of the extended construction period given by the change and claim procedure according to the contract terms-the days of the construction period that have been implemented before the suspension due to the epidemic; "Catch-up days" = remaining duration of the contract-actual duration days after resumption of work.

(II) For the increased fees for measures to catch up with work, the fees shall be based on the labor costs and machinery costs of the remaining construction projects, and calculated according to the corresponding standard of "Increase fees for completion ahead of schedule" in the Valuation Rules for Construction Projects in Zhejiang Province (2018 Edition). If the proportion of shortening the construction period exceeds 30%, both parties shall negotiate on their own.

The proportion of shortened construction period = (the number of days to catch up with work/the remaining construction period of the contract) ×100%

The calculation method of the remaining contract period and the number of days to catch up with the work is the same as the description of the first method above.

(three) the increase in the cost of overtime measures shall be determined by the contracting parties in combination with the approved plan of overtime measures.

Six, about the cost of construction efficiency.

According to the document "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Guiding Opinions on the Valuation of Construction Projects during the Epidemic Prevention and Control Period in COVID-19" (No.5 [2020] of Zhejiang Construction Station), in order to encourage qualified projects to resume (start) work, the workload completed by the resumption (start) project during the epidemic prevention and control period can be counted as the construction cost, which shall be borne by the employer. The contractor shall determine the content of construction efficiency reduction and prepare the construction efficiency reduction cost budget and report it to the Employer for review. If the number of days of efficiency reduction compensation has been considered in the extension of the construction period or the cost of rushing measures has been considered, the construction efficiency reduction cost will not be calculated separately. The calculation method of construction cost reduction can adopt any of the following methods:

(a) affected by the epidemic situation, the labor and machinery consumption of the quantities completed during the first and second level epidemic prevention and control response level can be increased by 8% of the corresponding labor and machinery consumption in the priced list in the contract documents, and the corresponding quantities are determined by the visas of both parties.

(two) determined by the contracting parties through consultation according to the actual situation.

Seven, about the cost of isolation and protection measures.

The cost of isolation and protection measures refers to the cost of isolation observation and implementation of corresponding control measures for rework personnel outside the city due to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control from the outbreak to the resumption of work, which mainly refers to the cost of setting up and managing disinfection rooms, isolation observation rooms, on-site medical rooms, food safety guarantee, garbage sorting and removal, etc. In principle, it is shared reasonably by both parties through negotiation, and the cost is calculated as construction value-added tax. The calculation method can be any of the following:

(1) Accommodation, meals, management fees, epidemic prevention measures, etc. incurred during the isolation observation of rework personnel shall be reasonably shared by the contracting parties through consultation. For the investment projects of our municipal government, the Employer shall give appropriate subsidies according to the number of isolated observers (excluding the centralized isolated personnel of the government). The subsidy standard is 100 yuan/person/day, and each person shall not exceed 1000 yuan. The Contractor shall provide the registration list of isolated personnel and confirm it by the Employer’s visa.

If the county government where the project is located has issued a subsidy standard for the contractor’s rework personnel isolation fee, it shall be implemented according to its regulations.

(2) The Contractor shall provide the Employer with the isolation scheme and cost list, which shall be reasonably shared by both parties after the Employer’s visa recognizes the price.

Eight, about the emergency construction project Jian ‘an project cost calculation.

For emergency construction projects (epidemic prevention control points, shelter hospitals, isolation hospitals, "fire eye" laboratories, etc.) constructed during the first-level response to the epidemic situation, the cost valuation method of Jian ‘an project can adopt any of the following methods:

(1) The expenses shall be calculated by means of cost plus remuneration.

(2) The expenses shall be calculated by using the current pricing quota and cost calculation method, and it is necessary to add the expenses for speeding up measures and various epidemic prevention expenses, and calculate taxes and other expenses. If there is an agreement on the price of labor, materials and machinery in the contract, it shall prevail; If there is no agreement, artificial price can refer to the labor information price released by the engineering cost management department in the month when the contract is signed and multiply it by 3 times.

Nine, these rules shall come into force as of the date of promulgation.

Attachment:Matters needing attention in handling force majeure claims. docx

　　On the social networking platform, do everyone expect to like, reply and forward? How happy are you when you are "liked"? Everyone may have a similar "conclusion" in their hearts, but now this question has a clearer answer.

　　Recently, American psychologists made an interesting study.

　　Researchers from the Amanson-lovelace Brain Map Center at UCLA selected 32 teenagers aged 13 to 18 to join a simulated social network similar to Instagram, a photo-sharing website. The researcher showed 148 pictures to the subjects in 12 minutes, including 40 pictures submitted by teenagers themselves.

　　Each picture is supposed to get some "likes" from other teenagers, but this is actually what the researchers did. Psychologists sit behind the functional magnetic resonance imaging machine and observe the brain activity of the subjects when they see the pictures.

　　Lauren Sherman, the main author of the paper, said that when the photos submitted by teenagers receive a lot of "likes", many specific areas in their brains will be activated, which is very similar to the brain activity when people eat chocolate or win money.

　　In short, the pleasure of "like" is similar to eating chocolate or winning money.

　　What are the influences on "like" behavior?

　　"Like" is influenced by "herd mentality". Sherman said that photos that have gained more "likes" are more likely to be "liked" by teenagers, which means that teenagers’ feedback on information depends on how many peers have recognized the information, even though the peers in the experiment may be strangers. In real life, this "peer influence" may be further amplified, because it will be people familiar with them.

　　"Like" is also influenced by behavior, attitude and preference. For example, volunteers with high openness tend to praise SalvadorDali, meditation or TED talks; Volunteers with high extroversion tend to praise parties, Snookie (reality TV star) or dances.

　　Are social media good or bad for teenagers?

　　Mirella Dapretto, a professor of biological behavior at UCLA, said that making friends with unfamiliar people on social networks may make teenagers more susceptible to dangerous people.

　　However, Sherman believes that teenagers are also influenced by positive behaviors on social media, so parents need to pay attention to who their children interact with on social networks and what their netizens post and "like".

　　Coincidentally, many years ago, LevMuchnik of Hebrew University of Jerusalem and his colleagues formed a research team with a news aggregation website to investigate the social impact caused by different network information.

　　The results show that positive social impacts tend to accumulate and often lead to herd effect, while negative social impacts are usually corrected by the masses and neutralized. This effect is particularly significant when it comes to specific topics such as politics, culture and business.

　　Are you "social image anxiety"?

　　"After sending a selfie, I will pay attention to how many people like it. After sending the voice, I will open it myself and listen to it again. Once I create an ice, I will be very sad. I am afraid that no one will respond and dare not speak in the group. I think that my sense of existence is weak."

　　However, from a professional point of view, the so-called "social image anxiety" is just exaggerated teasing, not mental illness. It is not shameful to expect praise, reply and forwarding on social networking platforms, and the slight anxiety caused by the expectation of failure is not a "disease". The desire to "come and pay attention to me" permeated in these actions is nothing more than the most basic needs of human beings in the eyes of humanistic psychologist Maslow.

　　It is perfectly normal to need the attention of others. Babies who can’t get the mother’s attention can’t survive; Children living in indifferent families have depression and aggressive behavior; Teenagers who can’t get the attention and recognition of their peers feel no difference between the pain of social rejection and physical pain; Adults with good interpersonal relationships will live longer. No wonder William? James wrote in "Principles of Psychology": "If it is feasible, the cruelest punishment for a person is this: give him freedom and let him roam in the society, but treat it as nothing and give him no attention at all."

　　The "symptoms" mentioned above are not so much manifestations of anxiety as normal behaviors caused by low self-esteem. Different from the "self-esteem" mentioned in people’s life, in psychology, self-esteem refers to a person’s attitude towards himself and his value judgment-people with high self-esteem have a clearer understanding of themselves and a more pertinent evaluation; However, people with low self-esteem have unstable and more negative understanding of themselves, and there are more problems in interpersonal communication.

　　The pressure of "asking for praise" in the circle of friends may make you a friend.

　　In a study on Facebook conducted in 2013, psychologists sent text messages to 82 people five times a day, asking them how long they used Facebook and how they felt. The researchers said: "We found that the more people reported their Facebook at a certain moment, the more their mood (reported by the subjects themselves) deteriorated from the beginning to the end of this period."

　　Why is this happening? Psychologists have found that for some participants, brushing Facebook is not pleasant; It haunts me like a long list of commands: inspire me, comfort me, wish me a happy birthday, invest money in my crowdfunding project, praise my new avatar and read my new feature on Nautilus. Social networking sites bombard users with various requests in an unprecedented way. These requests are not made in a one-to-one manner; They are like shotguns, one to many. No wonder people are under pressure.

　　PS: The above-mentioned point-to-point praise of madness may not be applicable …

At about 18: 30 on the 20th, an explosion occurred near the exit of Beijing Capital International Airport. A man detonated the black powder that made firecrackers, injuring himself, and no other people were injured. The incident is under further investigation.

According to sources, the explosion in T3 Terminal of Capital Airport originated from the explosion of electric wheelchair when passengers entered the port. Witnesses said that a disabled person ignited the bomb he was carrying.

Weibo, the official news agency of CCTV, announced that at 18: 25 today, an explosion occurred 10 meters outside the international arrival exit on the second floor of Terminal 3 of Beijing Capital Airport. A man detonated the black powder for making firecrackers and injured himself. He has been sent to hospital. After the incident, the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau and the Airport Branch quickly rushed to the scene for disposal.

An explosion occurred at Beijing Capital Airport. The picture shows the medical staff and other relevant personnel at the scene.

The staff of the Capital Airport revealed that the man was blocked from distributing leaflets at the scene because of his opinions, and then he detonated his hand-held homemade bomb, and smoke billowed after the loud noise.

The reporter learned from the Beijing police that the man’s name was Ji Zhongxing, born in Heze, Shandong Province in 1979. At that time, he detonated the black powder for making firecrackers. At present, no other personnel have been injured, the take-off and landing of airport flights have not been affected, and order has returned to normal.

According to netizen @mild_luna: A minute ago, a man arrived at the T3B entrance of the airport and exploded in front of my eyes with a bomb. He shouted at the exit with a bomb for a long time, but no one paid attention to it until the white plastic wrapped around the bomb was opened and people around him realized that something was wrong. The security guard rushed over and said that the bomb exploded in less than two sentences.

The reporter learned from the inside that the man was injured and there were no other casualties. The airport transportation control center started the plan for the threat of explosives to airport facilities, and all rescue units have disposed of it at the scene.

Beijing Capital International Airport was rewarded. It is understood that the man who caused the explosion was Ji Zhongxing, born in Heze, Shandong Province in 1979. At that time, he detonated the black powder for making firecrackers.

Beijing Capital Airport Explosion Site

Beijing Capital Airport Explosion Site

　　 　Paying attention to and strengthening propaganda and ideological and cultural work is a fine tradition and outstanding advantage of our party. The national conference on propaganda and ideological and cultural work held a few days ago conveyed the important instructions made by the Supreme Leader General Secretary on propaganda and ideological and cultural work. The most important achievement of this meeting is to formally put forward and systematically expound the cultural thought of the supreme leader, which provides a powerful ideological weapon and scientific action guide for doing a good job in propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era and new journey and shouldering a new cultural mission, and is of milestone significance in the development history of the party’s propaganda and ideological and cultural undertakings. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader emphasized that "the propaganda of ideological and cultural work is an extremely important work, which is related to the future and destiny of the party, the long-term stability of the country and the national cohesion and centripetal force". In the new era and new journey, we must profoundly grasp the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work, constantly create a new situation in propaganda and ideological and cultural work, and fully display new achievements in propaganda and ideological and cultural work.

　　 　Emphasizing the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work embodies a profound grasp of the law of Marxist party building. The key to China’s success lies in the Party. As a Marxist political party that has been in power for more than 70 years, the Communist Party of China (CPC) people have never stopped exploring the laws governing the construction of Marxist political parties, and put forward a series of original new ideas, new ideas and new strategies around the major theoretical and practical issues related to the development of the party and the country. Whether the ruling foundation of a ruling party is stable depends on whether it can gain the recognition and support of the groups it represents. The Communist Party of China (CPC) people deeply realize that Marxist political parties are different from all other political parties in human history, and they represent the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people. To achieve long-term governance, one of the necessary conditions is to win the support and support of the overwhelming majority of the people to the greatest extent. Propaganda and ideological and cultural work, as a political work, is essentially the work of doing people’s hearts. At present, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, and is undergoing great adjustment, division and reorganization. All kinds of hostile forces have never stopped implementing the strategy of westernization and division to China, competing with us for ideological positions in an attempt to shake the ruling foundation and mass foundation of the party. The CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core stands at the height of maintaining national harmony and stability and consolidating the foundation of social identity, and deeply analyzes the current risks and challenges in the field of propaganda, ideology and culture.The promotion of propaganda and ideological and cultural work to a height related to the party’s future and destiny and the stability of the party’s ruling foundation fully demonstrates our party’s in-depth thinking on the law of the construction of the Marxist ruling party, which means that the China-era Marxist theory of party building has reached a new height.

　　 　Emphasizing the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work is an incisive summary of the practice of propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the Communist Party of China (CPC) for a century. History and reality have repeatedly proved that propaganda and ideological and cultural work is a fundamental issue related to the development direction of a political party and a country. From the day it was founded, the Communist Party of China (CPC) took the propaganda and mobilization of the masses as its basic duty, and the glorious mission was to unite, unite and inspire the people to make unremitting efforts, unite all forces that can be United, mobilize all positive factors that can be mobilized, and maximize the strength of common struggle. In the course of our party’s magnificent development in the past century, the propaganda and ideological and cultural work is an important magic weapon for the party to lay a foundation for its career, create a glorious suffering and move from victory to victory. Summarizing the party’s experience in the practice of propaganda and ideological and cultural work for a hundred years, we are even more convinced that doing a good job in propaganda and ideological and cultural work is equivalent to mastering the people’s hearts, which is of great era value and practical significance for raising the flag, building consensus, building a strong country and national rejuvenation, and carrying forward the past and maintaining long-term stability. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has placed propaganda and ideological and cultural work in an important position in governing the country and made a series of major decisions and arrangements, and held two national propaganda and ideological work conferences in August 2013 and August 2018 respectively, and held a national propaganda and ideological and cultural work conference in October this year to systematically summarize the historical achievements and changes in propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era.It further emphasizes the position, function, responsibility and mission of propaganda and ideological and cultural work, which provides strong guidance for us to do a good job in propaganda and ideological and cultural work.

　　 　Emphasizing the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work reflects the continuous improvement of our party’s understanding of the regularity of propaganda and ideological and cultural work. To realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, we must have theoretical thinking for a moment; Building a socialist modern country in an all-round way is inseparable from the guidance of scientific theory for a moment. Similarly, to promote the propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era to open up a new situation and show new achievements, we can’t stop the academic interpretation of the regularity of propaganda and ideological and cultural work for a moment. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core has attached great importance to the propaganda and ideological and cultural work, put forward a series of new ideas, new viewpoints and new conclusions around the propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era, profoundly answered major issues such as the duty, mission, objectives, tasks and principle requirements of the propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era, and demonstrated the theoretical character of keeping pace with the times. The proposal of the supreme leader’s cultural thought not only marks that our party’s understanding of the laws of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s cultural construction has reached a new height, but also marks that our party’s understanding of the laws of propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era is more comprehensive, systematic, logical and practical. The supreme leader’s cultural thought profoundly answered the fundamental questions such as what flag to raise, what road to take, what principles to adhere to and what goals to achieve in China’s cultural construction in the new era, enriched and developed Marxist cultural theory, and provided a scientific action guide for doing a good job in propaganda and ideological and cultural work in the new era and new journey and shouldering a new cultural mission.

　　 　Emphasizing the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work reflects the practical need to better undertake new cultural missions with firm cultural self-confidence. Culture makes the country prosperous and the nation strong. Without a high degree of cultural self-confidence and cultural prosperity, there would be no great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It is our new cultural mission in the new era to continue to promote cultural prosperity, build a cultural power and build a modern civilization of the Chinese nation at a new starting point, and it is also the target direction to show new achievements in propaganda and ideological and cultural work. At present, the great changes in the world that have never happened in a century have accelerated their evolution, and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered a critical period. Our party needs a solid ideological foundation, strong spiritual strength and profound cultural self-confidence more than ever before. The Communist Party of China (CPC) people deeply realize that in order to stand tall among the nations in the world, it is necessary to fully stimulate the people’s self-confidence and sense of belonging to Chinese excellent traditional culture, revolutionary culture and advanced socialist culture through targeted, influential and effective propaganda and ideological and cultural work, so that the people can feel proud and recognized from the bottom of their hearts and better undertake the new cultural mission in the new era with high cultural self-confidence. With the establishment of cultural self-confidence, we can take the cultural mission more actively, consciously take the supreme leader’s new era Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought as the guide, thoroughly study and implement the supreme leader’s cultural thought, firmly grasp the party’s leadership over ideological work, persist in keeping the right and bringing forth the new, promote the creative transformation and innovative development of Chinese excellent traditional culture, and adhere to the "two combinations"We will continue to consolidate the cultural subjectivity of the Chinese nation, shape a new cultural life, realize spiritual independence, constantly cultivate and create Socialism with Chinese characteristics culture in the new era, and accelerate the construction of a socialist cultural power 2.

　　 　Emphasizing the extreme importance of propaganda and ideological and cultural work embodies the requirements of the times to consolidate the common ideological foundation of the United struggle of the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups throughout the country. A common ideological foundation is a prerequisite for effectively promoting the development of the cause, rooted in common interests, condensed in common goals, and strengthened in common struggle. To consolidate the common ideological foundation, we must realize, safeguard and develop the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people, so that the achievements of Chinese modernization can benefit all the people more fairly and continuously realize the people’s yearning for a better life. Building a socialist modernized country in an all-round way and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way with Chinese modernization can never be achieved easily. It requires both strong material and spiritual support. In particular, it is necessary to give full play to the important function of unifying thoughts and building consensus in propaganda and ideological and cultural work and continuously consolidate the common ideological foundation of the whole party and the people of all ethnic groups in promoting Chinese modernization. In the tide of the times, when the world changes rapidly in the past century and the international situation is surging, and under the realistic environment of the iterative updating of emerging technologies and the explosive growth of information thoughts, we must persist in arming the whole party and educating the people with Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the new era, constantly enhance the political identity, ideological identity, theoretical identity and emotional identity of the broad masses of the people, focus on strengthening confidence, expand mainstream ideological public opinion, widely practice socialist core values, and build a socialist ideology with strong cohesion and leading force.Provide strong ideological guarantee, strong spiritual strength and favorable cultural conditions for building a socialist modern country and promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way.

　　 　(Author: Ming Haifeng, Liu Lijia, executive deputy director of the Propaganda Department of the Party Committee of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, associate researcher of Marxism College, teaching assistant of Marxism College of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)

　　BEIJING, Beijing, March 3 (Reporter Li Jinlei) the State Council recently issued the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan to Promote Equalization of Basic Public Services", which listed the basic public services in eight areas, including social insurance. Take a look at this list of social security services and see what changes will happen to your social security benefits in the next few years.

　　Reasonable adjustment of pension standards

　　In terms of basic old-age insurance for employees, the list is clear, and basic pensions, including basic pensions and personal account pensions, will be issued, and transitional pensions will be issued to the insured who participated in the work before the reform and retired after the reform, and a reasonable adjustment mechanism for basic pensions will be established.

　　In terms of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, the list is clear, and basic pensions and personal account pensions are issued. At present, the minimum standard of basic pension determined by the state is 70 yuan per person per month. According to the economic development and price changes, a reasonable adjustment mechanism for the basic pension level will be established.

　　"Establishing a scientific normal adjustment mechanism for treatment is an important guarantee to ensure that insured people share the fruits of economic and social development reasonably." The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that in terms of old-age insurance, according to factors such as economic development, income growth, price level and affordability in all aspects, the normal adjustment mechanism of old-age insurance benefits will be gradually established and improved, and the basic pension for retirees and the basic pension standards for urban and rural residents will be improved in a coordinated and orderly manner to stabilize the treatment expectations of the insured.

　　Increase the proportion of individual contributions to medical insurance for urban and rural residents

　　The plan proposes to improve the stable and sustainable financing and reimbursement ratio adjustment mechanism of basic medical insurance, formulate a three-year government subsidy plan for urban and rural residents’ medical insurance, appropriately increase the proportion of individual contributions while raising the government subsidy standard, and gradually link individual contributions with the income level of urban and rural residents.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that residents’ medical insurance adopts a financing method combining individual contributions and government subsidies, and the government will subsidize individuals who have difficulties such as subsistence allowances. In recent years, the financial subsidy standards at all levels have been raised year by year. In 2016, it was raised to not less than 420 yuan per capita, and it was proposed that individual contributions should be raised to not less than 150 yuan.

　　The above-mentioned person in charge said that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the financing level of medical insurance will be scientifically determined by further improving the financing methods and channels, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism organically related to economic growth, residents’ income and medical expenses will be gradually formed to clarify the responsibilities of the government, units and individuals, form a reasonable financing structure, realize the stable and sustainable operation of the medical insurance system, and better safeguard the rights and interests of the broad masses of the people.

　　Maternity and medical insurance are combined.

　　The plan proposes to combine maternity insurance with basic medical insurance. The reporter of Zhongxin. com noted that the General Office of the State Council recently issued the Notice on Printing and Distributing the Pilot Program for the Combination of Maternity Insurance and Employee Basic Medical Insurance, and decided to carry out two pilot projects for the implementation of insurance merger in 12 cities including Handan City, Hebei Province, with a pilot period of about one year.

　　It is understood that the combined implementation of the two insurances will not reduce the maternity insurance benefits of the insured employees. With the improvement of the mutual aid ability of the fund, it will also help to better protect the benefits of the insured. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will sum up the pilot experience in a timely manner and determine the ideas and steps for full implementation, which will be promoted throughout the country during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period.

　　The service standard in the list shows that the fund pays the medical expenses and maternity allowance during the maternity period, and the maternity allowance is calculated according to the average monthly salary of the employees in the previous year.

　　Strive to achieve social security benefits from different places and direct settlement.

　　The plan proposes to issue and apply social security cards in an all-round way, with the card population coverage rate reaching 90%, realize social security one-card system, support the cross-business, cross-regional and cross-departmental application of social security cards, establish a social security card application platform and cover a wide range of card terminal environments.

　　With regard to the renewal of social insurance relations, the plan proposes to establish a social security management information system with unified standards and nationwide networking, improve and simplify the renewal process, implement online certification and online renewal, and strive to realize the nationwide collection and direct settlement of social insurance benefits in different places, so as to facilitate the floating employment and living in different places for insured workers, unemployed and retirees.

　　The relevant person in charge of the Policy Research Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security said that the relevant handling procedures should be constantly standardized, the functions of the social insurance relationship transfer and connection information system should be improved, and the rational flow of labor force should be promoted. Actively promote the settlement of medical treatment in different places, and solve the urgent need for qualified personnel to directly settle hospitalization expenses in different provinces, so that it will no longer become a pain point for the masses.