On February 14th, at Yelahanka Air Force Base in Bangalore, India, the US Air Force F-35 fighter plane was ready to take off. Xinhua news agency faxin
A few days ago, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun observed that many countries are stepping up their arms procurement due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, East Asia and other regions with severe security environment actively introduce new weapons. The supply of weapons in developed countries such as the United States and Europe is limited, and some emerging arms exporting countries have begun to rise.
The military trade market has always been the "wind vane" of the game between big countries and the "barometer" of the international security situation. In the past year, with the increasingly active military trade market, the already turbulent international situation has become more complicated. The New York Times reported that the expansion of arms trade highlights the escalation of global tensions.
The international military trade market heats up.
According to the annual report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in Sweden, in 2022, global military expenditure exceeded $2 trillion for the first time, of which the United States accounted for 38%. In terms of the proportion of global military expenditure, the United States and its NATO allies together account for 55% of global military expenditure. If you count America’s allies in the Pacific, Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, the figure rises to 61%. It is worth noting that the military expenditure of the United States alone exceeds the sum of the military expenditures of other countries in the top ten.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported that many countries are stepping up efforts to introduce American weapons: Lithuania, which borders Russia, decided to purchase eight sets of "Haimas" rocket launcher systems from the United States at a price of 495 million US dollars; Belgium signed a contract with the United States to purchase air-to-air missiles capable of carrying the latest fighters. Based on the new National Security Strategy, Japan will introduce Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States. As a supplier of weapons, the US defense industry began to increase production.
All along, the United States has firmly occupied the first place in the world’s military trade. According to the data released by the State Council on January 25th, in fiscal year 2022, the total foreign arms sales of the US government authorized by the State Council jumped to about $51.9 billion, a surge of 49.1% compared with the previous fiscal year. In fiscal year 2022, the total authorized value of weapons and military equipment directly sold by US defense contractors to other countries and regions was about US$ 153.7 billion, up 48.6% from US$ 103.4 billion in the previous fiscal year. By the end of fiscal year 2022, the total number of entities registered to engage in defense trade activities in the Defense Trade Control Bureau under the State Council reached 14,445, which was also an increase compared with the previous fiscal year.
Under the coercion and inducement of the United States, NATO members have further increased their defense budgets. According to the European edition of Political News Network, France’s expenditure increased by 7.4% year-on-year, with the goal of reaching 2% of GDP by 2023. Britain and Poland, which have exceeded this line, are seeking to increase their defense budgets to 2.5% and 3% of GDP. Belgium, the Netherlands, Romania and the Baltic and Nordic countries all announced plans to increase military expenditure to at least 2% of GDP. The "laggards" in southern and western Europe have also accelerated their pace, and Spain’s defense expenditure will reach 2% of GDP in the next few years.
On November 21 last year, the 27 member States of the European Union reached an agreement to increase the military budget by 70 billion euros, and the European Union was responsible for the integration of military weapons procurement. Prior to this, Japan announced that it would increase its defense budget to $318 billion in the next five years.
In October last year, the list of the top 100 military enterprises in the world in 2021 published by a foreign website showed that the total military revenue of the top 100 enterprises reached 595 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.9% over the previous year. This data has maintained growth for six consecutive years, continuously refreshing the record of the total revenue of the top 100 military products. On the list, the sales of military products such as South Korea and Turkey, which are listed as "emerging military industries", have increased significantly.
"In this wave of military purchases, the supply and demand structure has undergone subtle changes." Zou Zhibo, deputy director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: First, the buyers of military purchases cover a wide range. The countries that buy arms include not only the allies of the United States, but also other small and medium-sized countries, involving vast areas such as Eastern Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and East Asia. Second, the sellers of military purchases have also changed. In the past, the United States and Russia were the main sellers of global weapons, but because the United States wanted to support Ukraine and its own stocks, Russia had to fully deal with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The supply of weapons in the United States and Russia was greatly affected, and buyers turned to other countries that could export advanced weapons. The global military trade pattern has undergone major adjustments.
Insecurity is everywhere.
"In the past three years, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the global military trade showed a downward trend. With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international military trade market has shown an upward trend. " Guo Xiaobing, director of the Arms Control Research Center of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told this reporter, "At present, the global arms purchase tide mainly presents three characteristics: First, the contradiction between supply and demand has changed. In the past, there were more sellers and fewer buyers in military trade. Now, the demand suddenly becomes very strong and the supply becomes tight. Second, western countries, especially some NATO members and Japan, have increased their military spending significantly, becoming major arms buyers; Third, as far as the supply side is concerned, in addition to the particularly hot US arms business, the performance of some emerging arms exporting countries such as South Korea and Turkey in military trade is also eye-catching. "
"The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the most serious geopolitical conflict since the Cold War, which has a major negative impact on the regional and global security situation." Zou Zhibo said that the United States and some western countries are not only the instigators of this conflict, but also participants. The United States and some western countries continue to increase their support for Ukraine’s weapons level, while Russia vows that it will never accept a failed outcome. Therefore, the uncertainty of this conflict is gradually increasing, and the trend of escalating regional tensions is also increasing. At the same time, in this conflict, the civil infrastructure, including the "Benxi 2" pipeline, was attacked, and the scope of the conflict expanded uncontrollably, which made countries generally worried about the safety of their own civil infrastructure and the demand for protection infrastructure rose sharply. In this situation, the insecurity of small and medium-sized countries has generally increased, and it is urgent to introduce new weapons to seek self-protection.
"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported that the momentum of expanding ground equipment in many European countries near Ukraine is also obvious. After the cold war, Germany has been reducing the number of tanks, and now it has begun to increase production again. Eastern European countries are promoting the procurement of large artillery such as howitzers. Lithuania, one of the three Baltic countries, has 30% more howitzers than the previous year. Countries such as Poland have begun to import tanks, self-propelled artillery and other ground equipment from South Korea.
As the world’s largest arms seller, the United States is the biggest driver of the global arms purchase tide. The State Council’s surge in direct commercial arms sales is mainly attributed to the United States’ support for Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and claims that arms transfer and defense trade are important tools of American foreign policy.
"The United States manipulates the international situation through military trade and thus maintains its global hegemony." Zou Zhibo analyzed: First, military trade is an important starting point for the United States to implement its foreign policy. Who to sell weapons to, what weapons to sell and how many weapons to sell are the starting points for the United States to influence geopolitics and control the regional situation, and are the means for the United States to safeguard its global and regional interests. In this way, the United States can interfere in other countries’ internal affairs, exert strong pressure and even subvert other countries’ political power. Second, U.S. military trade has become a booster that intensifies turmoil and conflicts in the global region. The United States has a wide range of foreign military trade, selling arms to about 100 countries. The arms trade category covers rifles, tanks, warships, missiles and various types of fighters. These weapons with many varieties and huge quantities spread all over the world, which intensified the global confrontation conflicts and caused countless human tragedies. Third, the United States’ foreign military trade is right and wrong, as long as it is beneficial. The export of weapons to foreign countries should adhere to the principle of enhancing the defense capability of the receiving country and contributing to the construction of regional security. However, American foreign military trade completely ignores these principles and blindly pursues interests.
"The escalating Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the most direct driving factor for the surge in US arms sales; Expanding arms sales is one of the ways for the United States to seek economic growth after the economic recession; The military-industrial complex is the root cause of the surge in US arms sales. " Guo Xiaobing believes that the US military trade "hands over the knife" and "arches the fire", taking advantage of chaos to make profits, exacerbating regional conflicts and camp confrontation.
The overall risk of conflict has increased.
From February 17th to 19th, the 59th Munich Security Conference was held in Munich, Germany. The Munich Security Report 2023 released before the meeting emphasized that the world is entering a crucial decade for the future international order. According to the Munich Safety Index released at the same time, the world has entered a new stage where insecurity is everywhere.
"Military trade activity is a mirror reflecting the global security situation, and the two are inversely related. At present, the global tide of arms purchases has risen again, reflecting the changes in the current international security pattern and the deterioration of the security situation. " Zou Zhibo believes that the tide of arms purchases reflects the characteristics of the times when the world has entered a great change in a hundred years, reflects the efforts of countries to strengthen strategic autonomy and security autonomy, and highlights the sense of insecurity when the world is facing a nuclear threat. On February 6, 2023, UN Secretary-General Guterres issued a warning at the UN General Assembly, "We are at the most serious moment of nuclear war in decades".
India’s domestic carrier aircraft landed on the aircraft carrier for the first time, Russia plans to develop UAV air command post, Europe plans to jointly carry out "future air combat system" cooperation, Britain accelerates the integration of artificial intelligence and armed forces, Israel launches new smart missiles, Turkey’s new UAV first taxi test, and the United States develops a new generation of strategic bomber & HELIP; … Taking stock of the military "news" in 2022, it is not difficult to find that with the worldwide defense investment rising, the military trade market continuing to be active and the competition escalating, countries have rushed to the digital track of cloud computing, Internet of Things and big data to compete for the commanding heights of military science and technology development.
"In recent years, the international situation has been turbulent and international relations are complicated. Compared with a long time after the end of World War II, the cold war mentality and arms race have become more and more intense in the whole international relations. The overall rise in the risk of global conflicts has directly triggered a hot situation in the global military trade market. " Guo Xiaobing said that the global boom in military trade will not only further increase the risk of conflicts in already tense areas, but also further intensify the momentum of group confrontation.
"In the special historical stage when the world has entered a century-long change, and in the dangerous period of confrontation and conflict among big countries, the international community should attach great importance to the severe security situation and development trend, and make great efforts to resolve the dangerous situation and eliminate potential safety hazards." Zou Zhibo believes that, first of all, we should build consensus, enhance the sense of community of human destiny, be highly vigilant and jointly oppose the hegemonic acts of some countries that uphold the Cold War mentality in an attempt to safeguard their own interests by provoking division, confrontation and war; Second, establish a summit mechanism for big countries. Great powers should establish a global security governance mechanism, communicate and negotiate on major issues such as world affairs and concerns of major powers, and try their best to eliminate misunderstandings and resolve contradictions; In addition, reform and improve the United Nations security system and mechanism, uphold the principle of collective security and the spirit of multilateralism, and enhance the voice of developing countries and the efficiency of the United Nations in solving security problems. The perfection of the United Nations collective security mechanism should focus on adjusting the scope of application, reforming the organizational mechanism and strengthening its flank construction.
