Wang’s counterattack is full of suspense, and the feasibility of six tactics is analyzed.
Vanke A has suspended trading since 13:00 on December 18th, 2015. Last night, Vanke announced again that the company expected to disclose this restructuring plan within no more than 30 natural days, and resume trading on January 18, 2016 at the latest. The company promised not to suspend trading and plan major asset restructuring within 3 months after the securities resumed trading.
At present, Baoneng, the largest shareholder in the new position, holds 22.45% of the shares, while China Resources, the former largest shareholder, holds 15.29%. Anbang has just put up a placard to harvest 5% of the shares, and the development of the situation is still unclear. Onlookers even put forward many "ideas" for Wang Shi and Vanke’s counterattack. How feasible are these plans?
Poison pill plan
Difficult to pass
The poison pill plan first appeared in the United States in 1982. It was put forward by Martin Lipton, a famous American M&A lawyer, and its official name was "Anti-takeover Measures of Share Dilution". The core of the poison pill plan is that when a company encounters a hostile takeover, especially when the acquirer’s shares have reached 10% to 20%, the company will issue a large number of new shares at a low price in order to keep its controlling stake. The purpose is to reduce the proportion of shares in the hands of the acquirer, that is, to dilute the equity, but also to increase the acquisition cost, so that the acquirer can not achieve the purpose of holding. Sina used the "poison pill plan" in the face of Shanda’s acquisition, and finally gave up Sina grandly.
It is speculated that Vanke’s temporary suspension of trading may be a prelude to the implementation of the "poison pill plan". However, the market generally believes that according to the existing articles of association, the poison pill plan is difficult to throw out. If the poison pill plan is to be implemented, Vanke needs to review and approve the proposal to amend the existing articles of association at the board level, and then submit it to the shareholders’ meeting for consideration. However, Baoneng currently holds 22.45% of the shares, and will definitely vote against it at the shareholders’ meeting.
scorched-earth policy
both sides suffer/lose
Since November 27, Vanke’s share price has been rising steadily. Because the funds used by Baoneng to increase its holdings are obtained through leverage, some people in the market have suggested, "If you can’t take poison pills in time, you can choose scorched earth. Taking advantage of the fact that the board of directors has not been re-elected, Vanke’s business will be slowed down across the board and assets will be sold at low prices, which will cause Vanke’s share price to fall sharply with its performance, so that Baoneng will explode and they will inevitably retreat. "
Scorched earth refers to the target company selling a large number of company assets, or destroying the company’s characteristics, in order to defeat the hostile acquirer’s acquisition intention. Mainly including the sale of "Crown Pearl" and "puffiness tactics". Selling the "Crown Pearl" refers to selling the company’s most valuable core assets, which makes the acquirer lose interest; "puffiness tactics" means that companies buy a large number of assets that have nothing to do with business or have poor profitability, or make investments that take a long time to be effective, so that the company’s return on assets is greatly reduced in a short time. Through these means, the company has become bloated from lean, and after the acquisition, the buyer will be unbearable.
Obviously, this is a "crash and burn" defensive measure, which will lead to both losses. At the key nodes, small and medium shareholders are the group that Vanke should pay the most attention to and unite with. If the scorched earth is implemented, the interests of shareholders will inevitably be damaged. In addition, doing a low share price does not necessarily push back the menacing Baoneng department, but may give them an opportunity to increase their holdings in terms of cost.
Retreat to the board of directors
Small and medium shareholders believe
Feelings or capital?
Vanke shares are scattered, and the real decision-making power is firmly in the hands of the board of directors. It is very important for Vanke to attack the invasion of "barbarians" and hold the board of directors. Here, the most important thing is to obtain the voting rights of minority shareholders and avoid Baoneng from entering the board of Vanke. This move is actually no stranger. When Vanke attacked Junan Securities in 1994, it won the voting rights of many small and medium shareholders, thus saving Vanke’s moat.
In his internal speech on the 17th, Wang Shi said, "Small and medium shareholders are our major shareholders, and now the capital is fierce, but small and medium shareholders will stand on our side, and customers will stand on our side, demanding a transparent, standardized and law-abiding social order will stand on our side." It shows that Wang Shi is trying to "win over" small and medium shareholders, and he also places more hopes on many small and medium shareholders.
Baoneng Department is constantly increasing its holdings of Vanke, which is ambitious. If it aims at the board of directors, it will also find ways to win the support of minority shareholders. Do minority shareholders believe in feelings or capital? It is full of variables.
play for time
Suspension of trading is only a delaying tactic.
At noon on the 18th, Vanke issued a suspension notice. The suspension of trading is the first shot of Vanke’s "equity defense war". It can not only attack the entry of short-term funds, but also gain more time for Vanke to arrange a counterattack, and it can also make Baoneng pay a high capital cost for leveraged funds. Because the high debt ratio is one of the weaknesses of Baoneng, as Wang Shi said: "Where did Baoneng buy Vanke’s money come from? The first money they bought Vanke came from universal insurance, which is short-term debt. They borrow money at different levels, recycle leverage, and have no way out. "
However, according to the relevant regulations, listed companies plan to increase their trading, and the suspension time generally does not exceed 10 trading days in principle. If it is only a fixed increase, it does not constitute asset restructuring, and the cumulative suspension time will not exceed 2 months. In last night’s announcement, Vanke also clarified the time limit of 30 natural days. Some insiders believe that "Baoneng borrowed more than 8 billion funds, which is less than 1 billion according to the capital cost of 9% a year. Even if it is suspended for one year, Baoneng can afford it."
On the 18th, Qianhai Life Insurance, a subsidiary of Baoneng, re-issued 1.5 billion capital supplementary bonds, and Baoneng is preparing ammunition intensively. In addition, even if the trading is suspended for a long time, Baoneng Department can also take the off-exchange agreement to acquire shares to increase its holdings.
To a certain extent, "delaying changes" is a plan to slow down the army and cannot really solve the problem.
Turn to China resources
It is unlikely to continue to increase its holdings.
When Wang Shi counted all kinds of "unqualified" of Baoneng, he gave great affirmation to China Resources, the former largest shareholder.
"When China Resources was the major shareholder, it played a very important role in the company’s governance structure … As an international company, China Resources communicated with Vanke’s business sector and learned from each other. China Resources’ credit is not lower than Vanke’s and its ability is not lower than Vanke’s. In the development of Vanke, it plays an important role in the stability of Vanke’s shareholding structure, business management and internationalization. "
Since China Resources became the largest shareholder of Vanke in 2000, it has played a more financial investment role, almost never interfered with the operation and management of Vanke, and has always helped support Vanke. China Resources’ shareholding in Vanke is basically maintained within 15%, and the two sides maintain a tacit and harmonious relationship. On August 26th this year, after three placards, Baoneng Department’s shareholding ratio reached 15.04%, surpassing China Resources to become the largest shareholder of Vanke. A few days later, China Resources increased its holdings of Vanke and regained its position as a major shareholder.
It is reported that Wang Shi has led Vanke executives to Hong Kong to discuss with China Resources. This time, it is not known how China Resources will make suggestions for Vanke, but it can be inferred that it is unlikely to continue to increase its holdings. Judging from their respective shares, Baoneng has far surpassed China Resources by about 7%, and the funds needed to regain the largest shareholder are not small. Vanke’s share price is at a high level. If China Resources enters, Baoneng Department can just get out of it and earn a lot of money. In addition, China Resources Group has just experienced that Song Lin, the former chairman, was investigated for serious violation of discipline and law, and is also facing personnel turmoil. It is hard to say what attitude the new chairman has towards Vanke.
Looking for the white knight
What if Anbang happens to be the enemy?
There is another trick in enemy-breaking, looking for the white knight. The "white knight" refers to that when a company encounters a hostile takeover, the management of the company seeks a "friendly" company to cooperate in order to prevent the occurrence of a hostile takeover. Generally speaking, the acquisition of "White Knight" supported by management is very likely to succeed. However, this is the same as the "poison pill plan", and the private placement also needs the approval of the shareholders’ meeting.
Recently, in addition to the massive attack of Baoneng Department, Anbang Insurance, the "rich man", is also placarding Vanke. On December 8, Vanke announced that as of December 7, Anbang Insurance’s products held a total of 552.5 million shares of Vanke common stock, accounting for 5% of the company’s total share capital. Anbang chose to enter at this time, which is incredible. Is it a "brother" with Baoneng, who has the same insurance background, or a white knight of Vanke?
Although there are rumors that Anbang and Baoneng are acting in concert, there is no official confirmation. Whether it is an enemy or a friend, the ultimate pursuit in the capital market is economic interests. Judging from the past gameplay of Anbang, a capital crocodile, even if it is willing to act as a white knight, Vanke will pay a lot of money.
replay
The dispute between Jun and Wan 20 years ago:
How does Wang Shi repel
The first intruder
Baoneng Department is not the first time Vanke has faced the "barbarian at the door". In 1994, Vanke had a thrilling contest with Junan Securities.
According to the description in Road and Dream written by Wang Shi, at that time, Jun ‘an underwritten Vanke B shares, and 10 million shares were still in hand. The cost per share was in 12 yuan, while the market price was only in 9 yuan, with a book loss of 30 million yuan. "Creating the theme of Vanke’s acquisition" is the solution that Jun ‘an came up with.
In Wang Shi’s words, "acquisition" naturally stimulates the stock price to rise. As long as Vanke’s stock price rises, Junan can win three things in one fell swoop: selling the backlog of Vanke shares and withdrawing funds; Control Vanke’s board of directors with the support of minority shareholders, and manipulate the stock market more conveniently; Win a good reputation for safeguarding the interests of minority shareholders and market innovation.
On March 30, 1994, Junan Securities entrusted four companies (holding 10.73% of Vanke’s total shares) to launch the Letter to All Shareholders of Vanke Enterprise Co., Ltd., proposing to reorganize Vanke’s business structure and management. The battle of "Jun Wan" began.
On March 31st of that year, Vanke applied to Shenzhen Stock Exchange for suspension of trading, which was the first time that the China stock market was suspended. At the same time, Wang Shi sent a request for help to the state-owned shares, the largest shareholder at that time, and launched a secret diplomatic action against some key figures. On April 4th, Vanke resumed trading in Shenzhen Stock Exchange. On the morning of the same day, Ke Weixiang, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, met with Zhang Guoqing and Wang Shi, the two protagonists of the "Jun Wan Dispute", and the two sides shook hands and made peace.
This edition of the article
Beijing Morning Post reporter Yang Yi
































