Times change, countries rise and fall.

　　The rise and fall of a country is driven by long-term factors as well as accidental events. At present, during the epidemic period we are experiencing, the performance of the United States lacks global leadership, and the over-issuance of the US dollar has once again made people question its status as an issuer of abuse reserve currency. The newly released International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, and it fell to 60.89% at the end of 2019, the lowest in recent years, and the proportion of RMB is 1.96%.

　　We often follow Bridgewater Dario’s point of view. He believes that in the "great cycle" of national strength, the status change of reserve currency is the slowest. Before that, the change of national strength was already taking place. By studying the long-term history of many countries, we can reveal the most important influencing factors of the great cycle of national strength.

　　What are these factors? We share with you Dario’s recent articles published in LinkedIn.

　　This article will explain the essential motivation behind the rise and decline of the strongest country in history. This is the essence of the law that I showed when I studied the dynasty changes of the past three reserve currency countries: the Netherlands, Britain and the United States, and six other important powers: Germany, France, Russia, India, Japan and China in the past 500 years. Besides, I also specially studied all the generational changes in China since the Tang Dynasty. In addition to seeing the transfer of wealth and power, we have also seen changes in all aspects of daily life such as science and technology, culture and art. These individual case studies will be elaborated in detail in Part 2. When we switch back and forth between historical cases and the underlying paradigm, we can see how these cases show the underlying paradigm (Fit the archetype) and how the paradigm I summarized can describe the actual situation of these historical cases well (the law reflected by the paradigm will be exactly the sum average of historical events).

　　As I mentioned above, the most important task of this article is to show you the eternal and universal operation law behind the world as much as possible and use it for me. For me, this process makes me feel obligated and full of energy. As I mentioned in my previous article, my curiosity and anxiety about the world prompted me to uncover the law behind it, but when I really did research, the whole process brought me a much grander picture of the world than I expected. In my opinion, all this reveals more clearly how people and countries have risen and weakened for thousands of years. Behind these ups and downs, there is a huge cycle that goes hand in hand, but I never realized all this before.

　　Although the grand picture I will show you is my independent view, readers, I also need to declare to you that I can’t show you this picture without help from all sides. It comes not only from my hard study in the past 18 months, but also from my deep discussion with top scholars and doers, a lot of hard reading of historical works with profound insights in the past, and the hard research of top research teams, combined with my investment experience in the global scope in the past 50 years. With so much help, it takes courage, humility and continuous efforts to explain the law of the rise and fall of great powers in history, and there is no guarantee that everything I say is correct. However, I am sure that most of what I said is right, and I also understand that this law gives me a strong ability to predict the future, and I can predict scenes that we have never seen in my life, because these things have been happening repeatedly in the historical process of social development. My goal is to make all this clear to you after my hard research and practice, so that it can be used by you.

　　01

　　Study the screening principles of countries

　　Let me make it clear first that the big country we study is not necessarily the country with the best living standard. There are two reasons: first, although wealth and power are what most people pursue, some people and some countries do not think these things are the most important and will not consider fighting for them. For example, some people think that having a peaceful and fulfilling life is more important than having a lot of wealth and power. They don’t pursue wealth and power constantly, so they are not the object of study. Secondly, the countries studied do not include the so-called "boutique countries" (such as Switzerland and Singapore), which have high wealth and living standards, but are not large enough to become big countries.

　　How do people acquire wealth and power?

　　Let’s look at the big picture. Throughout the well-documented history, various forms of people (such as tribes, kingdoms, countries) have either created themselves or obtained wealth and power from others. When they gather more forces than any other organization, they become the world’s leading forces and then determine the world order. When they lost that power (as every big country did in the past), wealth, power and world order changed greatly, which had a great impact on economy, market and all aspects of life. In this chapter, we will study how many forces jointly determine the ups and downs of this cycle, so as to regularly make the wealth and power of big countries rise first, then maintain, and then decline (Causing the archetypal empire’s wealth and power to rise, be sustained, and then decline).

　　With the passage of time, the development of society and the improvement of productivity, the world’s total wealth, total rights and living standards have been continuously improved. In the whole human society, the gains from learning always outweigh the losses. Although due to the differences in education level, work ability and scientific and technological development level, different people’s learning productivity has increased at different speeds. Knowing this, those in power can make better policies and make the country develop better; Investors and company managers can therefore decide how to make better investments. Although the improvement of learning ability and productivity level is of great significance, they are constantly innovating, so they are not the cause of major changes in people with wealth and power.

　　The sharp fluctuation of wealth and power is caused by many factors, although I have identified 17 influencing factors, the most important of which is the currency and credit cycle. These powerful forces usually come together in classical cycles, which tend to form a very large ups and downs cycle in a complementary way and appear repeatedly throughout history. This huge archetypical cycle controls the rise and fall of empires, which affects everything, including their currencies and markets. Like the archetypical debt cycle I outlined in Debt Crisis-My Coping Principles, this cycle paradigm represents a typical debt cycle that we can compare with other debtors, including the debt cycle we are in now. Knowing this, we can try to get a glimpse of the future through the gap.

　　At the time of writing this article, we see that all these 17 forces are at work, and the most important ones are the debt cycle, the gap between the rich and the poor cycle and the global geopolitical cycle. As mentioned in the previous article, we recently lowered the interest rate to 0% during the economic downturn, and at the same time carried a lot of debts. This has led to a large number of government debts, and central banks are printing money for monetization. At the same time, there is a huge gap in politics and values between countries, and the emerging world power (China) is challenging the current world power (the United States). Although this situation has never happened in our life, it has happened many times in history (the most recent one happened in 1930-45). I will explain to you in this article that we are now experiencing an archetypal big shift in relative wealth and power, and with this change, we will witness the profound changes in the world order that have affected all countries.

　　The reason why the transfer of wealth and power between countries is often overlooked is that although it is rapidly forming, it has not suddenly appeared. This neglected but obvious thing shocked us. Most people don’t pay attention to the laws of history, so they can’t accurately understand our current situation. Therefore, in this article, I will describe in a very concise way how I view the archetypical mechanics behind the rise and fall of big countries and their market operations.

　　In order to see the whole picture of historical changes, you can’t get too entangled in details.

　　If I want to show you all this huge picture called "the changes of human history", then I can’t concentrate on presenting every detail. Similarly, as an appreciation of the scroll, please understand this and try to look at it from a macro and divergent perspective. This is because we are trying to understand and appreciate the evolution and changes that span a long period of history. In order to see these changes, we have to ignore some details. Of course, when we should stop and pay attention to the details (some specific details are very, very important), I will switch from macro narrative to micro-description, so that we can take a closer look at these details.

　　Examining what happened in the past from the grand perspective of human historical changes will fundamentally change the way we look at things. For example, many things we take for granted, many words we blurt out, did not exist in most historical periods. Therefore, I will try my best to present the whole historical picture to you vividly, but I won’t get entangled in all the details of history. However, in the cases we studied, I will present you with relatively complete details.

　　For example, we should carefully understand the differences between different countries, kingdoms, nations, nations, tribes, empires and dynasties. Nowadays, we mostly talk about (sovereign) countries, but it is well known that sovereign countries did not appear until the 17th century after the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Generally speaking, there was no modern country before that, only the kingdom could be seen. But in some places today, the kingdom still exists, and the boundaries with sovereign countries are unclear, and some places have both. Generally speaking, the kingdom is the smallest, the country is the second, and the empire is the largest, and the relationship between them is not clear. Britain was a kingdom at first, then evolved into a sovereign country, and finally became an empire whose borders extended beyond England, so that its leaders could control a vast area and many non-Anglo-Saxon people.

　　Similarly, each type of political entity (such as country, kingdom, tribe and empire) controls population in different ways, which puzzles those researchers who strive for perfection. In some cases, empire refers to the area occupied by the ruling power; Sometimes it refers to those areas that are influenced by the ruling power through threats and inducements. The British empire occupied the territory of the empire in general, while the United States controlled more countries by relying on the "carrot+stick" strategy. Although this is not entirely correct, at the time of writing, the United States has military bases in 70 countries, so it is obvious that there is an "American empire", but what it refers to is controversial. Anyway, I hope readers understand what I mean: trying to be precise in words may hinder me from conveying more important information. So in this article, you will have to put up with my ubiquitous uncertainty. You also need to understand why I collectively refer to these political entities as countries, even if it is not technically the case.

　　Some people may think that it is impossible for me to compare different countries and different systems at different times. I can understand this view, but I assure you that I will try my best to explain any differences, but the similarities between eternity and universality in history far outweigh the differences. It is extremely sad to let differences prevent us from seeing the laws of history clearly.

　　03 historical change and the cycle that goes hand in hand.

　　As mentioned above, the long-term progress of mankind depends on constantly doing things better, that is, improving productivity. In the long run, learning and constantly improving productivity is the most important force; Although economic cycle fluctuation is also important in the short term, it cannot change the long-term trend. The chart below shows the changes of global per capita production value (estimated real GDP) in the past 500 years, which can also illustrate this point.

　　Estimates of global GDP per capita in the past 500 years (based on 2017 US dollars, taking logarithm)

　　From this top-down perspective, we can observe that the growth rate of global per capita output was very slow in the early days, but the slope of the growth curve suddenly became steep around 1800, reflecting the rapid improvement of production efficiency. Such changes have benefited from the improvement of the education level of the whole people and the transformation of educational achievements into productive forces. This change is caused by many factors, which can be traced back to the invention of the printing press in Europe in the mid-15th century (China used it very early), which improved the knowledge and education level of more people and contributed to the Renaissance, the scientific revolution, the Enlightenment and the first industrial revolution in Britain.

　　The popularization of education has also shifted wealth and power from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy. In the agricultural economy, monarchs, nobles and churches jointly own land and make profits from it; In the industrial economy, capitalists create and own the means of production, and together with the (secular) government, they maintain a system that enables them to make profits and take power for a long time. In other words, this system has been operating since the industrial revolution; In this system, wealth and power come from the combination of educational resources, innovative ability and capitalist system, and are controlled by those in power and those who control capital and educational resources.

　　However, behind the track of relatively steady increase in productivity, it is a turbulent era that witnessed prosperity and depression and experienced revolution and war. However, these turbulent periods are still weak relative to the long-term progress trend, so they only show a weak swing in the chart. These swings seem intense to us as individuals, but only because our lives are short and small.

　　Take the Great Depression and the war between 1929 and 1945 as an example. For us, these 17 years have been long and full of shock. The following chart reflects this period (economic situation), which is taken from the above line chart (reflecting the 200-year change). As you can see, GDP per capita fell by about 10% during the Great Depression, and then recovered, while the US stock market fell by 85%. The Great Depression was followed by World War II, which increased the production of munitions. However, due to the destruction of a large number of means of production, it is inaccurate to call this period "the era of mass production", even on a per capita basis. At the end of the war, the global per capita GDP dropped by about 12%, a large part of which was caused by the economic collapse of the defeated countries.

　　It can be seen that between 1929-1933 and 1944-46, the global per capita GDP dropped by 10% and 12% respectively.

　　Although the first chart I showed reflects the productivity of the world (to the best of our ability), it does not show the transfer of wealth and power between countries. The chart below shows the relative wealth and national strength of 11 world powers in the past 500 years. This wealth and power index is calculated by eight indicators, which I will introduce in detail later. Even though these data are not accurate due to the age, they still perfectly reflect the macro trend. As you can see, almost all big countries have experienced a period of rise and decline. Thick lines are the four most important big countries: the Netherlands, Britain, the United States and China, which have respectively mastered the three recent reserve currencies in history. It is the present tense for the United States, the past tense for Britain, and earlier for the Netherlands. I mention China because it has grown into the second most powerful country and remained so powerful for most of the time before 1850.

　　Medium-short period evolution

　　The chart shows: 1. Although China’s position declined sharply after the 19th century, it has been in a dominant position for centuries (always surpassing Europe in commodity trade); 2. As a relatively small country, the Netherlands became the greatest empire in the world in the 17th century. 3. Britain followed the Dutch model and reached the peak of its national strength in the 19th century; 4. In the end, the United States surpassed several countries and remained a world power for 150 years, especially after World War II and the war. Today, China is catching up.

　　The next chart dates back to 600 AD. In order to make the chart look simple, I included 500 years in the above chart. Although 11 countries, 12 major wars and a long history of 500 years can hardly be described as "simple". Long-period evolution

　　As the picture shows, 1500 years ago, China was almost always the most powerful, although the Arab Empire, French Empire, Mongolian Empire, Spanish Empire and Ottoman Empire also rose.

　　How do we measure the wealth and power level of a country?

　　In the first two charts, I measure the wealth and national strength of countries, which is basically obtained by averaging eight indicators. They are 1. Education; 2. Competitiveness; 3. the level of science and technology; 4. Economic output; 5. Trade share; 6. Military strength; 7. Strength of financial center and 8. Reserve currency. We will further discuss the measure of power later, but let’s focus on these eight key elements first.

　　Taking the year when China became the world’s largest country as the origin, we list the changes of various indicators in each of the 120 years before and after. The following table is the average data of many countries, but most of the weights are given to three countries with reserve currencies (namely, the United States, Britain and the Netherlands).

　　Paradigm law

　　These charts tell a good story about how great powers rise and fall. I will introduce other factors later, but before I do, let me briefly introduce the cycle. The first thing to note is that all these indicators are curved before and after the rise of great powers, because these indicators always complement each other. That is, the advantages and disadvantages in education, competitiveness, economic output and world trade share can be logically transformed into other advantages or disadvantages. For example, well-educated people will create a more innovative, competitive and productive society.

　　I call this up-and-down swing of national strength "the great cycle". Please pay attention to the order in which these factors influence each other, because it reflects the process of the rise and fall of big countries. For example, education is always the leading indicator, but the change of reserve currency status is long overdue. This is because a strong education will bring advantages to most fields, including creating the most widely circulated currency in the world. Like the common language in the world, habit will amplify the strength of money itself and make it circulate more permanently.

　　04 great cycle

　　Broadly speaking, we can divide the rise and decline of empire into three stages: 1. The rise stage is characterized by gaining competitive advantage; 2. In its heyday, the country maintained its strong strength, but gradually laid a bitter fruit for losing its competitive advantage; And 3. In the weak stage, the self-strengthening mechanism in all aspects of the country has declined.

　　In short, a country can only go uphill when it has the following characteristics:

　　1. Strong and promising leadership: the premise of all successful elements.

　　2. Good education: including teaching knowledge and skills.

　　3. Rock-solid virtues, civic literacy and strong professional ethics: they are passed down through school and family education, and help civil society achieve the following achievements, such as:

　　Low corruption rate and high respect for social rules such as the rule of law.

　　People can not only unite, but also have a consensus on why they need to unite: when a group of people with abundant knowledge, advanced skills, good virtues and good civic literacy unite, they will create:

　　4. A good resource allocation system, and can …

　　Attracting the best talents in the world is the most important condition for a country to succeed, and then, this country will …

　　6. gain strong competitiveness in the international market, so that the national income far exceeds the expenditure, which contributes to

　　7. Strong income growth helps …

　　8. Increase investment in infrastructure, education and research and development, so as to obtain

　　9. Higher production efficiency: the improvement of production efficiency means the simultaneous improvement of productivity and wealth level. When the country’s production efficiency is high enough, they can invest and exhibit:

　　10. New technologies: These new technologies will have commercial or military value; As these countries become more competitive with the above factors, they will

　　11. Take more shares in the national trading system: this makes it necessary for them to establish:

　　12. Powerful military force: protect trade routes and expand its influence on other countries. With their economic advantages, they have developed into the world’s leading …

　　13. financial center, which can gather and finance capital: (Amsterdam was the world financial center when the Dutch empire dominated the world; After Britain replaced it, London became a financial center; And new york’s status now comes from the hegemony of the United States. But China is also developing its financial system with Shanghai as the center.) These expanding empires have …

　　14. Strong stock, currency and credit markets: The currencies of countries that dominate trade and capital flows naturally become the first choice for trading media and wealth reserves, and develop into reserve currencies. According to this logic, when the Dutch empire dominated, the Dutch guilder was the global reserve currency; During the British Empire, the pound inherited this status. When the US dollar became the global reserve currency in 1944, the United States was only one step away from winning World War II, and it was obviously in a leading position in economy, finance and military affairs. Using a country’s currency as a reserve currency will naturally give the country stronger borrowing and purchasing power. As shown in the above figure, the opportunity for a country to gain or lose its status as a global reserve currency is much later than its other strengths.

　　Through unremitting efforts and other complementary factors, the empires achieved their rise and maintained their national strength. The founders of those empires coordinated economic, political and military strength, and built an economic-political-military system that constantly benefited from the international community. The Dutch founded the Dutch East India Company, Britain founded the British East India Company, and the United States had a military-industrial complex. Facts have proved that this kind of economic, political and military cooperation is essential to the expansion of the empire.

　　However, the development of the empire always has its platform period, which is because behind the success of the country’s rise, it also lays the groundwork for future weakness. Specifically, it includes:

　　During the boom, people’s income increased, making labor more expensive; Compared with countries with lower wages for the same job, competitiveness naturally declines.

　　The development model of the most successful countries will be imitated by emerging competitors, and shine on you is often superior to Blue, which makes the leaders lose their competitive advantage. During the British-Dutch hegemony, the labor cost of British shipyards was lower than that of the Netherlands; Therefore, the former chose to hire Dutch engineers to design ships with higher cost performance than the Netherlands. Because the cost of time and money required for copying is less than that of invention and creation, other things being equal, emerging empires hitchhike in mature countries through copying.

　　In those countries that are born rich, people will reduce their workload and engage in more leisure and low-productivity activities; In extreme cases, it becomes decadent and incompetent. Especially when the backbone of society changes from a generation that must work hard to succeed to a generation that inherits wealth, the younger generation is often fragile and inexperienced, and it is more likely to be defeated when confronted with challenges. As time goes by, people in these prosperous societies are more eager to pursue a leisurely and luxurious life, so they do not hesitate to lose their strength, create bubbles, and finally become more vulnerable.

　　The richest and most powerful countries have the status of global reserve currency, which gives them the privilege of borrowing a lot, so that they are caught in a debt trap. A large number of loans have enhanced the consumption power of hegemonic countries in the short term, but in the long run it is just the opposite. In other words, when lending and consumption are strong, hegemonic countries seem to be strong, but their financial strength is eroded. This lending model enables domestic people to over-consume, and provides funds for expanding the army and launching wars to enhance forces other than basic national strength. This model can be maintained for a period of time, even self-strengthening, thus increasing the interest return of creditor countries, thus enhancing the status of reserve currency.

　　When rich countries borrow money from developing countries, it is also one of the early signs of wealth transfer. In the 1980s, the per capita income of the United States was 40 times that of China, but at that time, China had begun to buy US Treasury bonds because the US dollar was the global reserve currency. At the same time, it also became the starting point for China to catch up with the United States. Similarly, Britain borrowed heavily from much poorer colonies during World War II; The Netherlands did something similar before its national strength went downhill, but when the creditors refused to hold and sell the Dutch guilder, the Dutch debt structure collapsed instantly, and its monetary status and economic situation plummeted. The United States has also borrowed a lot of money and reduced its debt by issuing more money, but this has not shaken the status of the dollar and the US debt for the time being.

　　When the number one power keeps "expanding its territory" until it is no longer worthwhile to maintain it, the cost of maintaining the system becomes higher than the income. The unprofitable global power system will further hit its financial situation, as is the case in the United States today.

　　Because of unequal distribution, the success of economic development naturally widens the gap between the rich and the poor. Those who have wealth and power (such as those who profit from business activities or those in the government) take care of each other and maintain a system that is beneficial to them, while ordinary people lag far behind until the polarization between the rich and the poor has become intolerable injustice. The same is true in the United States today.

　　The foreshadowing of decline is always buried in the golden age, and the prosperous country will gradually decline in the downward trend. This decline is due to the fact that when the country is going downhill, the power that can compete with it has developed relatively in the above-mentioned fields.

　　When the national debt is high, the central bank can only make ends meet in the face of a weak economy, and the downward state leads to more debt and economic problems, the country has to print a lot of money and devalue its currency.

　　If the gap between the rich and the poor widens infinitely, social values are polarized, and economic pressure (no matter where the pressure comes from) cannot be released, it will be easy for the rich and the poor to fight, and the initial conflicts will intensify later. This usually encourages political extremism, that is, populism of reformists (people who try to redistribute wealth) and conservatives (people who want wealth to be in the hands of rich people such as capitalists). Both democratic and centralized countries may become the soil of populism.

　　When the rich are worried that their wealth will be taken away, or they will become the target of public criticism, they will transfer their wealth and life to places, assets or currencies that they think are safer. If this transfer is not explicitly prohibited, it will erode the tax and income of the place where the assets are transferred out, making it experience a typical vicious circle of asset hollowing out. Shrinking tax revenue is even worse, aggravating the tense situation, increasing tax revenue, forcing more rich people to leave, and other worse consequences. For example, we now observe that the root of some social problems is that the rich have fled the state with higher taxes because they don’t want to face the financial pressure and the gap between the rich and the poor. When the hollowing out of assets is too serious, the government will come forward to stop it-it is forbidden to continuously collect funds from the lost places to their new places, assets or currencies, and people who want to protect themselves will feel panic.

　　Events that shake the foundation will devour the country’s productive forces. The size of the wealth cake is a little smaller, and people are fighting for shrinking resources; The cake is drying up day by day, and people are fighting over how to distribute it. Populist leaders of different camps are clamoring hard in the wrestling, hoping to control the situation and reorganize the order. At this time, democracy is particularly precarious compared with centralization. This is why in the 1920s and 1930s, Germany, Japan, Italy and Spain (as well as some small countries) were all centralized and pulled out the flag of the democratic camp, while the major democratic countries (the United States, Britain and France) also had the shadow of centralization. It is generally believed that in chaotic times, centralized and rapid decision-making is preferable to democratic decision-making based on discussion. Therefore, when the mass struggle against discipline and resorting to violence appears, the movement is not without merit.

　　If a country has strong enough economic, geopolitical and military forces to challenge the existing dominant forces, then there are many potential conflicts between these competing powers. Because there is no system for peaceful adjudication of such disputes, conflicts have to be resolved through a head-on contest.

　　When the cost of maintaining the image of a big country is greater than the income it brings, the economic strength of the country is hollowed out. At the same time, other countries are on the rise, and the big countries that are already strong in the outside world do not want to give away their interests. This state will make a strong country face economic and military threats. In order to maintain its status as a big country, military spending has been expanding again and again, but the domestic economy has been depressed, making it more difficult for leaders to collect taxes and making them need more domestic support. Seeing this dilemma, the enemy countries have chosen to strike at the beginning of the signs of the decline of great powers. Then, the big countries will face the difficult choice of facing or retreating economically and militarily.

　　If other external shocks, such as natural disasters (plague, drought or flood), occur in a fragile period when big countries are struggling to cope with internal and external troubles, it is tantamount to injecting another destructive force into the process of national decline.

　　It is also a problem when the number of people in a country who are vegetarian is not enough for the country to win in this cycle. Of course, since each leader is only responsible for a short part of this cycle, they can only solve problems on the basis left by their predecessors, which means that the National Games can control everything better than the leaders.

　　In a word, due to the improvement of productivity, cakes are constantly expanding, and some cycles have emerged.

　　The construction period of the country’s peak. Due to:

　　1. Relatively low debt level

　　2. Relatively small wealth, value and political views gap.

　　3. People work together to create prosperity.

　　4. Good education and infrastructure

　　5. Competent leadership.

　　6. A peaceful world order led by one or more major powers.

　　When it flourished and declined, the country went to a period of deconstruction and reorganization. The reason for the country’s prosperity has gone to the opposite side and turned into a fatal weakness:

　　1. High debt

　　2. A huge gap in wealth, value and political views.

　　3. The cooperation between nationals broke down and they turned to attack each other.

　　4. Backward education and infrastructure

　　In order to maintain the state of over-expansion, great powers have gone through a painful period of struggle, destruction and reorganization under the challenge of new rising forces, which has given birth to a new order and laid the foundation for the coming of a new era.

　　Generally speaking, the 17 characteristic indicators in the figure below are the main forces driving the rise and fall of a country. For any country, the more each feature deviates to the left, the greater the possibility of its rise; The more you shift to the right, the greater the possibility of weakness. World powers tend to show more left-leaning characteristics, and under a virtuous circle, they continue to become stronger; However, if the management is not good, each characteristic index will shift to the right, and the country will go weak. At this time, new competitors can take the opportunity to rise, properly manage each characteristic index, and gradually the situation of strength has changed.

　　17 factors affecting the rise and fall of a country

　　In short, this is the reason why the rise and decline of great powers occur periodically. Now, I want you to do a little exercise: think carefully about whether the position of each characteristic index is to the left or to the right for the country/region you are interested in. What about the United States and China? What other countries are there? Make a judgment based on your intuition and compare it with my idea later. I will make a more systematic analysis of the characteristic indicators of these big countries later.

　　These positive and negative factors are actually intertwined and affect each other, bringing great changes to society. It is no coincidence that the huge gap between the rich and the poor, the debt crisis, the revolution, the war and the changes in the world pattern almost happened at the same time. The following picture outlines the history of the rise and fall of every big country very clearly. As shown in the shaded area in the figure below, the destruction and reorganization caused by depression, revolution and war have largely destroyed the old system and laid the foundation for the emergence of new systems. These great depressions often occur every 10 to 20 years, but there may be more variables in this time period. Followed by a beautiful new world, no country is willing to compete with the world hegemon for the top spot, and well-behaved people begin to work and develop harmoniously. Usually, these beautiful periods can last for 40 to 80 years, but there will be great fluctuations. In the above two big cycles, there are also some small cycles, such as short-term debt crisis/business cycle, which last for 7 to 10 years.

　　Reserve currency cycle

　　For example, the decline of a Dutch power gives way to a British power, or Britain gives way to the United States. Most of the following things will happen in this process:

　　Debt restructuring and debt crisis are internal conflicts in countries, which eventually lead to the redistribution of wealth, the collapse of the status of foreign war reserve currency and the collapse of a new generation of domestic and international order

　　The last Great Depression occurred in 1930-45, which promoted the reconstruction period that began in 1945. More specifically, the collapse and reorganization of the monetary and credit system led to the depression in 1930-45, which led to the establishment of a new global monetary system (Bretton Woods system) based on the dollar in 1944. The huge gap between the rich and the poor in the Roaring 20s narrowed due to depression and war, which led to a fundamental change in the distribution of wealth and rights, and the global war also changed the world pattern. After 1945, everything has undergone earth-shaking changes. The United States became the world hegemon, the gold standard shifted, and a global monetary and credit system based on the dollar was established.

　　Translator’s Note: This refers to the 1920s in the western context, which was a period of sustained economic prosperity. In the past ten years, it covered countless exciting events, so some people called it "the most colorful era in history".

　　In this new world dominated by the United States, the United States has taken the lead in wealth, economic strength and military strength. It is the richest country with 80% of the world’s gold reserves; It is a country with the highest economic strength in the world, and its production capacity accounts for half of the world’s output; It is also a military power with absolute advantages, monopolizing nuclear weapons and having the most powerful conventional forces. However, after 75 years, the world pattern has also undergone fundamental changes, which we will discuss further in the following chapters. At that time, we will also try to predict and interpret the possible future development direction.

　　Next, we will study each indicator more carefully. In the last chapter, I will summarize all these indicators and carefully infer how to make our future better in view of our current situation. In the second part, I will make a detailed interpretation of each country’s case.

　　[1] Short-term cycle evolution chart

　　As for the above figure, these indexes consist of many different statistical data, some of which can be directly compared, while others are only an estimate. The data in some countries are always discontinuous, so different data need to be spliced together. It should be noted that the line shown on the chart is the 30-year moving average of these indexes, and I have adjusted it, so there will be no lag. The moving average is chosen because it is less volatile and can filter out a lot of noise, making the direction of the big period clearer. For a longer-term interpretation, I will use these curves smoothed by the moving average; On the contrary, for some more detailed interpretations, the unprocessed curve may contain more information.

　　[2] Chart of Paradigm Law

　　Regarding the above figure, we show the relationship between these key indicators and history by anchoring specific time periods in history. The value "1" on the Y axis represents the peak value of this indicator relative to history, and "0" represents the bottom. The X-axis, that is, the time axis, is displayed in units of years, where "0" roughly represents the time when many indicators of the country reach the peak. In the rest of this section, we will introduce the stages of paradigm law in more detail. As for the indicator of global reserve currency, we will focus on China. Although it has been a big country for centuries, its currency has never become a global reserve currency. The reasons behind this are worthy of our further study.

　　(A global M&A investment transaction information manager at your fingertips)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Yijie DealGlobe. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

speed up apply the brakes oil consumption second rice rise Relaxation is moderate! Test the 2015 Porsche cayenne s3.6t. Evaluation Editor-Huang Zhengqiao:

In the range of 1.5 million yuan, you must have both brands and configurations, and you must run fast and sit comfortably. It seems that it is really the Cayenne S. After the new car was replaced with the V6T engine, the price was more than 170,000 cheaper than the old V8 model, but the performance was improved. Then, a benchmark product was born with this 170,000 to upgrade the configuration.

Evaluation Editor-Sheng Yuanjun:

Compared with the old model, the biggest change of the 2015 Porsche Cayenne S is that the engine has been changed from the original 4.8L V8 self-priming to the current 3.6T V6 double supercharged, but the power has been significantly improved. The officially announced 0-100km/h acceleration result has changed from 5.9 seconds to 5.5 seconds, and our measured results are even better. When the whole car is driven, it gives people a sense of relaxation. More importantly, it is almost difficult to find an opponent in the price range of 1.3-1.5 million yuan. The price faster than it is close to 2 million, while the performance cheaper than it is not as strong as it. If you think that the 3.0T Cayenne can’t satisfy your passion and desire, choose Cayenne S!

Evaluation Editor-Sheng Yuanjun:

We basically don’t need to worry too much about the interior design and materials of the Cayenne, because it is really luxurious enough. If you also check many accessories or interior colors on the matching list you fill out when buying a car, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as "luxury". The dynamic performance is also worth mentioning. The front of the car is pointed accurately and the control is as agile as a tire growing on the body. Want to have it? The basic price of 1.369 million yuan may really make your heart beat.

　　Editor’s note:With the improvement of living standards, health has become our most concerned topic. What is healthy food? How to prevent physical diseases in life? This has become the focus of attention. People’s Health Network launched the column "Jintai Health Park" to take stock of the most healthy lifestyle for you every week and take you into the health park.

　　Don’t forget to nourish your heart and protect your brain when spring comes.

　　Spring is coming, "heart disease" still needs to be prevented.

　　Many old patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases will feel that the most dangerous winter has passed and they can breathe a sigh of relief. Liang Donghui, director of zhujiang hospital Department of Traditional Chinese Medicine of Southern Medical University, reminded that research shows that cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have two peak periods every year, one in autumn and winter, and the other in spring.

　　External cause: the climate is hot and cold.

　　Especially in spring in Lingnan area, the climate is changeable, and it is hot and cold, which is easy to cause acute attacks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. In particular, patients with hypertension and coronary heart disease are prone to angina pectoris, even myocardial infarction and stroke. Therefore, the folk proverb of "covering spring and freezing autumn" is very reasonable. "Spring cover" means that the temperature in spring has just warmed up, so it is not appropriate to take off winter clothes too early, because it is warm and cold at this time, and the temperature difference between morning and evening is relatively large. It is difficult to adapt to taking off winter clothes too early, once the temperature drops, the human body’s resistance will decrease and blood pressure will fluctuate greatly, which will easily lead to the increase of myocardial oxygen consumption index and increase the heart load.

　　When blood vessels are stimulated by cold, they will spasm. People with atherosclerotic plaques, those unstable plaques will rupture and fall off, resulting in myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction.

　　Internal cause: hyperactivity of liver and emotional uncertainty.

　　In addition to external factors, spring "heart disease" is prone to internal factors. Traditional Chinese medicine believes that spring belongs to wood in the five elements, and the liver belongs to wood in the five internal organs of the human body (heart, liver, spleen, lung and kidney). Spring qi passes through the liver, and liver qi rises vigorously. Many people with high blood pressure have a common physical feature — — Hyperactivity of liver yang and vigorous liver fire. In spring, their mood is often very unstable, and they are prone to lose their temper. When they lose their temper, their blood pressure will increase, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases will easily occur.

　　Do three things to protect cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in spring.

　　Liang Donghui said that a healthy body needs active and continuous maintenance. For middle-aged and elderly people, especially those with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and high-risk groups, it is very important to do seasonal prevention work, which can reduce the incidence and reduce the serious harm caused by diseases. Care for blood vessels in spring should pay attention to the following three aspects:

　　1. Don’t let your body catch cold, keep warm and reduce the heart load.

　　Pay attention to the change of weather, add and reduce clothes in time, and would rather wear more clothes than freeze. Especially when going out in the morning and evening, pay attention to keep warm and wear a good hat to prevent cold wind from invading the body, causing blood pressure fluctuation and vasospasm, avoiding the rupture and shedding of unstable plaques from causing myocardial infarction and reducing the heart load.

　　2. Eat a reasonable diet and eat more bud vegetables in spring, which will help the yang to rise.

　　For patients with cardiovascular diseases, it is necessary to keep your mouth shut at all times, and eating and drinking may cause illness at any time. To prevent cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, the diet is mainly coarse grains and vegetables, and it should be low in oil, salt, fat and sugar.

　　In the season when the yang rises in spring, the human body’s yang conforms to nature, and it is scattered upward and outward. You can eat foods that warm and tonify the yang and disperse the temperature rise, such as onions, garlic, ginger and leeks. Sprouting vegetables such as bean sprouts, Toona sinensis, tender bamboo shoots and spinach also contribute to the rise of yang. You can eat more onions, tomatoes, loofah, eggplant, fungus, etc. These foods can resist arteriosclerosis and reduce blood fat. Edible foods that are sweet and spleen-nourishing, such as jujube and yam. Eat more fresh fruits and vegetables to help calm and nourish the liver.

　　3. Keep a good mood, and avoid mood swings of great joy and great sorrow.

　　Spring is the time when the liver is flourishing. Chinese medicine believes that the liver governs the release of qi, which means that maintaining psychological balance and emotional stability is beneficial to the health of the heart and blood vessels and can reduce the incidence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases.

　　Never avoid the emotional fluctuation of great joy and great sorrow, which will easily lead to blood pressure fluctuation, autonomic nerve dysfunction and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Especially those patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases with depression and anxiety at the same time should be more vigilant.

　　If you want "heart" health, you must also pay attention to "mood" health

　　Often "heart jam" for some daily trifles may lead to real "heart jam" for a long time. Liang Donghui said that in clinical practice, it is found that more and more patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have mental and psychological problems. The comorbidity rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases with depression and anxiety disorder is very high.

　　Experts remind that if someone in the family always feels uncomfortable and can’t find the reason for going to the hospital, they must be patient, understand more, explain more, and seek help from mental and psychological professionals when appropriate.

　　Daily chest distress and palpitation can be relieved by pressing two acupoints.

　　Liang Donghui said that if the patient is diagnosed with "double heart disease" with cardiovascular disease and psychological disorder at the same time, the doctor should conduct corresponding dual diagnosis and treatment and "treat both mind and body". However, the family and society should also have corresponding support, and patients should "relax" and face the disease positively. Sometimes they might as well do health exercises, Tai Ji Chuan and Ba Duan Jin under the guidance of Chinese medicine practitioners.

　　If there are some symptoms such as chest tightness and palpitation at ordinary times, what method can be temporarily relieved? Liang Donghui introduced two methods of acupressure. In case of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, you can massage yourself while waiting for the arrival of professional ambulance personnel, which has good anti-angina and anti-arrhythmia effects. Daily massage can also play the role of health care and heart protection, and patients with atrial fibrillation, premature beats, arrhythmia and other diseases can use it to regulate themselves.

　　1. Neiguan point: Regular pressing has the functions of calming the heart, calming the nerves, regulating qi and relieving pain, and is called Baoxin Yaoxue. Sometimes gastrointestinal discomfort, such as nausea and vomiting, and even motion sickness, can be relieved by pressing this point.

　　【 Acupoint selection method 】 The transverse palmar stripes are pointed upwards by three fingers, and the midpoint of the two tendons is Neiguan point, between the palmar longus tendon and the flexor carpi radialis tendon.

　　[Massage method] Press the thumb on Neiguan point, press the index finger on the corresponding Waiguan point on the outer side of the arm, and force the finger vertically downward, and it is appropriate to feel sore. After pressing for 20~30 seconds each time, gradually release it, and then press it down again. Press each hand for 3~5 minutes, and then change the inner and outer points at the corresponding position on the other side for the same time and method.

　　2. Taichong point: Regular pressing has the effect of calming the liver and suppressing yang, which can relieve hypertension, dizziness and headache.

　　【 Acupoint selection method 】 It is located at the back of the foot, at the front depression of the joint of the first metatarsal and the second metatarsal.

　　[Massage Method] Press your fingers down on the acupoints, then massage them, with moderate intensity, so as to produce a feeling of soreness. Press each acupoint repeatedly for 1-2 minutes, and then change one side to the corresponding position of the other foot, and massage in the same way.

　　Soaking feet at nine o’clock in the evening is the best way to protect the kidney.

　　Soaking feet before going to bed is a good habit, which can promote blood circulation of lower limbs and relieve fatigue of the day, but pay attention to time. Because the physiological activities of the human body are periodic, that is, we call it the biological clock. This biological clock has a cyclical law of growth and collection. In the morning, qi rises to the outside, but at night, it is the opposite. It needs to converge and hide inside. Our daily activities must also conform to this law in order to be healthy.

　　According to the traditional twelve o’clock timing method, at night, from 9 o’clock to 11 o’clock, Hai is the last one of the twelve branches, and then it is time to enter the next cycle. We often say that when the sun is shining, it can be said that our yang is starting again. If the last cycle is not well rested, the next cycle will start wearily, which will lead to health hazards in the long run. Therefore, we must let our qi, blood and spirit fully return before 11 o’clock, and sleeping on time is a good measure.

　　In addition, soaking feet before going to sleep also plays an auxiliary role. It is most appropriate to soak feet with warm water at 9: 00 pm to 11: 00 pm, which can attract our spirit to the lower limbs, and the spirit has a leading role in qi and blood. When the spirit is concentrated, the qi and blood will also descend. For some mental workers, it is very useful for the spirit of qi and blood to descend, because after thinking about the problem for a day, the spirit is concentrated on it, and the brain is more excited, so it is more difficult to fall asleep at night. After soaking feet in warm water, the spirit and qi and blood are easier to return, that is, to return to their base camp, and the kidney dominates the storage of essence, so it is the kidney that is replenished after collection.

　　The kidney meridian of human body starts from the first step. After soaking feet in warm water, it plays a warming role and is a benign stimulus to the kidney meridian, which will naturally play a good role in the kidney. Therefore, although no measures have been taken for the kidney, the meridian can also play a role in tonifying the kidney.

　　It should be noted that the water temperature of soaking feet must be moderate, not too hot or too cold. If the water temperature is too hot, it will not help the kidney to collect, but will make people more excited, thus increasing the consumption of kidney essence; If the water is too cold and cold, the meridians will be blocked, and the cold will enter the abdomen along the meridians, and its harm is self-evident.

　　Walking briskly every day, you can easily live to 80 years old.

　　Life lies in exercise, which is good for longevity. A new study published at the 68th annual scientific meeting of the American Heart Association found that a 70-year-old man’s chances of living past 80 can be doubled by walking briskly every day.

　　Professor seamus wheelton, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in the United States, and his research team made an in-depth analysis of the medical records of more than 6,500 participants over 70 years old in 18 years. The researchers asked the participants to do their best to exercise regularly on the treadmill or stationary bicycle, tested their exercise stress, and divided them into groups according to their exercise amount and heart disease risk factors. During the 10-year follow-up survey, 39% of the participants passed away. The results of comparative analysis show that people who walk briskly every day are twice as likely to live past 80 as those who don’t exercise. Even if the risk factors of heart disease are taken into account, this result still holds.

　　Professor wheelton said that the new research results show that fitness level is an important indicator to predict life span and health, and clinicians can incorporate it into the process of seeing a doctor and evaluate the exercise stress of elderly patients by asking them about their exercise patterns. This diagnosis method has the advantages of low cost, low risk and low technology. Experts suggest that for people who do not have heart disease risk factors such as hypertension, high cholesterol, diabetes and smoking, if they do not exercise, their risk of premature death is similar to that of people with more than three risk factors.

　　Six benefits of reaching the standard of sleep

　　Adults should sleep at least seven hours a night, but many people can’t reach this standard. For those who don’t get enough sleep, an extra hour’s sleep can give the body and brain a better rest and improve their health in many ways. Recently, the American Reader’s Digest magazine summarized the benefits of reaching the standard of sleep.

　　1. Protect your heart. A research result announced at the general meeting of the European Society of Cardiology shows that both lack of sleep and too much sleep are harmful to the heart. This may be because sleep will affect physiological processes such as glucose metabolism, blood pressure and inflammation, which will have an impact on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases.

　　2. The risk of diabetes is reduced. Even healthy young people, as long as they don’t get enough sleep for one night (less than 6 hours), will affect their metabolism. A study by Sultan University in Qaboos, Oman found that long-term sleep less than 6 hours may be related to the onset of type 2 diabetes. In this case, the body will produce too much insulin, but it cannot be used to decompose glucose in the blood.

　　3. Keep slim. Exercise and a balanced diet are essential to keep a healthy and slim figure, but a good rest at night also helps to keep your weight stable. The American Nurses’ Health Research (NHS) found that people who sleep less than five hours have a 15% higher risk of obesity than their peers who sleep seven hours a night.

　　4. It is not easy to get depression. Studies have shown that people with insomnia are 10 times more likely to suffer from depression than normal people, and are more likely to commit suicide. People with obstructive sleep apnea are more likely to suffer from depression.

　　5. Enhance immunity. Poor sleep quality will have a negative impact on immunity, and it is more likely to catch a cold or infection. When sleeping, the immune system usually releases cytokines. However, after many sleepless nights, the number of cytokines, antibodies and cells produced by the body with anti-infection ability will decrease.

　　6. The risk of dementia is reduced. Researchers at Boston University School of Medicine found that people with poor quality during REM sleep have a higher risk of dementia. This cycle is the best time for sleep quality, and the efficiency of brain rejuvenation is the highest.

At the Chengdu Auto Show, which opened on August 30th, BYD 2025 was officially launched. Four new models were launched, including three two-wheel drive models and one four-wheel drive model. The price range remained the same as that of 2024 models, ranging from 189,800 yuan to 249,800 yuan.

As an annual redesigned model, although the price range of the 2025 model remains unchanged, because the entry version of the 2024 model (beyond model) was cancelled, in fact, the price of the 2025 Song L EV was lowered by 10,000 yuan.

In addition to lowering the price, the 2025 model also added aurora blue paint and Xuan Kong gray interior color. In terms of intelligence, some models are also equipped with the "Eye of God" advanced intelligent driving assistance system -DiPilot 100, which provides more than 30 functions such as driving assistance and parking assistance, including high-speed navigation, lane navigation, lane change, automatic parking, remote parking, 3D panoramic transparent images, side distance reminder, etc., to improve the driving safety and convenience of users in multiple scenarios.

In terms of design, the appearance and interior of the 2025 model remain the same as that of the 2024 model. The appearance of the hunting coupe creates an elegant and dynamic visual effect. The 15.6-inch central control panel, 10.25-inch full LCD instrument, 50-inch AR-HUD head-up display and 5.8-inch rear air conditioning control panel with a large area of suede material in the car have both a sporty atmosphere and a sense of technology.

In terms of size, the new car has a length, width and height of 4840/1950/1560mm and a wheelbase of 2930 mm. It is a standard medium-sized car, and the space is not a problem for daily use. In terms of comfort, the new car is also equipped with front seat heating/ventilation/massage, rear seat heating, rear backrest angle adjustment and Dana stereo. It is worth mentioning that Song L EV is one of the few BYD models with frameless doors.

In terms of power, the new car still provides two driving forms: rear-drive and four-wheel drive. Among them, the single-motor rear-drive model provides 204 horsepower and 313 horsepower, and the zero-speed acceleration time is 8.5 seconds and 6.9 seconds respectively. The total power of the front and rear dual motors of the four-wheel drive model is 517 horsepower, and the zero-speed acceleration is 4.3 seconds. The new car adopts the front double wishbone and rear five-bar suspension structure and comes standard with variable damping and shock absorption of Yunqi C.

In terms of battery life, the entry-level model is equipped with a 71.8-degree battery pack, the CLTC cruising range is 550km, and the other models are equipped with an 87.04-degree battery pack, the CLTC cruising range is 662km and 602km (four-wheel drive), and the charging speed is 140kW.

On the [car home Changsha Preferential Promotion Channel], we brought an exciting news: the high-profile luxury car-an unprecedented preferential activity is under way. As a car model deeply loved by consumers, at present, in Changsha, the maximum discount amount is as high as 60,000 yuan, and the minimum starting price has been adjusted to an attractive 189,900 yuan. This undoubtedly provides consumers in Changsha with an excellent opportunity to buy a car. Want to seize this rare preferential opportunity and experience the charm of FAW-Volkswagen CC as soon as possible? Please be sure to click the "Check Car Price" button in the quotation form to get the latest and most favorable car purchase conditions.

FAW-Volkswagen CC is deeply impressed by its dynamic design. The front face adopts a family-style design, and the angular air intake grille and LED headlights complement each other, creating a strong visual impact. The overall body lines are smooth, elegance and strength coexist, showing the elegance of an advanced sports car.

FAW-Volkswagen CC creates an elegant and dynamic profile with its slender body size, specifically, the length of 4865mm, the width of 1870mm and the height of 1459mm, and the wheelbase of 2841mm. The front and rear wheel tracks are 1586mm and 1572mm respectively, which ensures good driving stability. Its tyre size is 245/45 R18, and the matching of tire and rim shows its athletic performance and exquisite feeling. On the whole, the side lines of FAW-Volkswagen CC are smooth and powerful, providing excellent visual enjoyment for drivers and passengers.

The interior design of FAW-Volkswagen CC focuses on luxury and technology, and adopts an exquisite leather steering wheel, which provides manual up and down+front and rear adjustment functions to ensure the comfort and convenience of drivers. The 9.2-inch central control screen stands in the center of the instrument panel, equipped with advanced voice recognition control system, which supports multimedia, navigation, telephone and air conditioning operations. The seat is made of leather /Alcantara, which is comfortable and rich in texture. The main and auxiliary seats are equipped with front and rear, backrest, height adjustment and lumbar support functions, and the main seat also provides additional heating function. At the same time, the car is equipped with USB and Type-C interfaces, with three in the front row and two in the back row to meet the multimedia needs and charging needs of passengers.

For FAW-Volkswagen CC, its 2.0T engine can output the maximum power of 137 kW and the maximum torque reaches 320 Nm. This engine is equipped with 186 horsepower and 7-speed wet dual-clutch gearbox, which provides drivers with strong power performance and smooth driving experience.

To sum up, car home car owners are full of enthusiasm and satisfaction with the evaluation of FAW-Volkswagen CC. He particularly emphasized the dynamic performance of the vehicle, saying that the power surge in Sport mode met his driving needs. In terms of appearance, he is obsessed with the unique sliding back body and borderless door, which makes him feel proud every time he opens the door. Such praise has undoubtedly added more charm and attraction to FAW-Volkswagen CC, making it an ideal car integrating power and aesthetics.

　　Yesterday, there was moderate rain in the whole city, with heavy rainfall in the south and east, and heavy rain in some places. From 22: 00 on May 25 to 15: 00 on May 26, the average rainfall in the city was 18.3 mm, and the maximum rainfall occurred in Daxing Yufa, 80.8 mm.

　　After the rain, the north wind came, and there will still be about 4 northerly winds and 7 gusts in this city during the day. The temperature will gradually rise from now on, and it will reach about 34℃ again at the weekend.

　　China Southern Airlines reported yesterday that yesterday morning, due to the thunderstorm weather in Beijing, the CZ3101 Guangzhou-Beijing flight of China Southern Airlines was hit by hail and its windshield broke. The crew was disposed of according to the manual procedures, and the plane landed safely at Beijing Capital Airport at 11: 48 am, and the crew on board were safe. According to public information, the Airbus A380 was flying the flight.

　　Encountered several violent bumps and cracks on the outside of the windshield.

　　From the photos taken by netizens circulating on the Internet, it can be seen that the paint on the nose of the plane is obviously damaged, the external radome is damaged, and the windshield is seriously broken.

　　In the recording of a conversation between the crew of flight CZ3101 and the Beijing Tower to confirm the situation on board, the crew said, "You can see that there is a crack outside the windshield."

　　The Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from an on-board passenger that when the plane entered the landing stage, it suffered several violent bumps. "There were three or four sections, each of which was tens of seconds. The bumps were much more serious than those I experienced before flying. You can see that there are very thick clouds around the plane." As can be seen from the photos taken after the passenger got off the plane, the paint on the nose of the plane was obviously damaged.

　　Another passenger recalled that when the plane landed, "it felt like riding a roller coaster. I almost threw up at that time. It was so lucky to land safely."

　　Flight safety landing netizens "like" the captain.

　　When this incident came out, it triggered a heated discussion among netizens, and many people "liked" the captain. Weibo, the official of China Southern Airlines, said, "The flight was affected by the thunderstorm weather in Beijing. During the landing in Beijing, the plane was hit by hail and the windshield was broken. The crew was disposed of according to the manual procedures. The plane landed safely at Beijing Capital International Airport at 11: 48, and the crew was safe. "

　　In an interview with the reporter of Beiqing Daily, China Southern Airlines said that the captain of this flight is He Xianghang, with a flight experience of about 15,000 hours and a technical level of Class C teachers.

　　At 08: 35 yesterday, flight CZ3101 took off from Guangzhou Baiyun Airport normally, and approached in the airspace of Beijing Capital Airport at 11: 20. When flying around the clouds in a thunderstorm, it was suddenly hit by hail, which caused the outer layer of the windshield to rupture and affected the pilot’s sight.

　　The flight crew was calm in the face of danger, managed cockpit resources efficiently, and handled it in strict accordance with the operating procedures of the company manual. For safety reasons, MAYDAY was immediately announced, and the situation at that time was comprehensively evaluated: first, the aircraft was damaged. Because the A380 windshield is a three-layer structure, only the outer windshield is damaged and the inner layer is intact, which can ensure safe flight. In addition, all systems of the aircraft operate normally and are safe and controllable.

　　The second is the weather. Damage to the outer windshield will affect the heating of the windshield, and the aircraft can’t fly in the ice accumulation area. According to the latest weather situation and forecast of the Capital Airport, the crew found that the weather system has basically crossed the border and met the conditions for safe landing. The third is the navigation facilities of the Capital Airport. The Capital Airport has the condition of Class II blind descent, which can improve the safety margin. At the same time, I learned from the cabin that there was no abnormality on the whole. Based on the above situation, the crew shortened the air flight time as much as possible and applied to the controller for priority landing.

　　Finally, the plane landed safely at 36R runway of Beijing Capital Airport at 11: 48 yesterday. All the crew members adhere to the eternal theme of flight safety. In the case of damaged windshield, they strictly standardize operations, decisively evaluate and make decisions, land safely in the shortest time, and always regard the safety of passengers’ lives and property as the highest responsibility of pilots.

　　Can an airplane fly safely with a broken windshield?

　　Chen Jianguo, a senior captain, said in an interview with the reporter of Beiqing Daily that the aircraft radome is made of synthetic materials, not a part of the pressurized fuselage, and the damage may only have an impact on the weather radar, but has little impact on the safe flight of the aircraft.

　　Chen Jianguo said that according to the manual of Airbus aircraft, the front windshield of the aircraft has six layers, namely, outer layer, heating coating, interlayer, middle layer, interlayer and inner layer from outside to inside. The outer layer is heated by the heating coating, which mainly plays a protective role. When the plane flies in the air, the outside temperature will be as low as MINUS 60 degrees Celsius, and the heated windshield can effectively maintain a certain strength and toughness. The middle layer and the inner layer are called structural layers. No matter the middle layer or the inner layer, any layer has the ability to bear twice the maximum pressure difference of the aircraft, so as long as there is any glass in the middle or the inner layer, the aircraft is safe.

　　Chen Jianguo explained that when the plane’s glass is broken, the pilot can touch it along the crack with a pen or fingernail to see if the inner glass is broken. If the inner glass is broken, it is impossible to estimate whether the middle layer is also broken. It should be lowered immediately to reduce the pressure difference between the inside and outside of the plane, so as to avoid the danger that the plane will deteriorate further and lose the whole windshield, thus losing pressure. If the inner glass is not damaged, the plane is safe and can continue to fly safely because the inner glass can bear at least twice the maximum pressure difference.

　　Text/reporter Yan Lishuang Qu Chang

　　A few days ago, Aika Automobile obtained more relevant information from a set of FAW Toyota Crown Land Displacement configuration sheets exposed on the Internet. At present, the Crown Land Displacement has opened reservations. As a sister model of the fourth-generation Highlander (Parameters | Inquiry), the Crown Land Displacement adopts the design of the American version of the Highlander XSE model and is equipped with a 2.5L hybrid system.

　　　

　　From the exposed configuration list, we can see that Crown Lvfang will launch a total of six models, including two-wheel drive and four-wheel drive versions. The two-wheel drive version is an enterprising type and an elite type, with only 5 seats and 7 seats, and other configurations are basically the same.

　　On the four-wheel drive version, there are four configuration models to choose from. The deluxe version will have more configurations than the elite version, such as 20-inch wheels, panoramic sunroof, leather steering wheel/shift lever, electric adjustment of main and auxiliary drivers, and heating of front seats; the premium version has more rear privacy glass, 12.3-inch central control screen, electric tailgate, HUD head-up display, etc. than the deluxe version; the top version has more external welcome lights, external rearview mirror memory, and advanced punched leather seats.

　　　

　　In the power system part, the power combination of Crown Land will be a 2.5L engine + motor dual-engine hybrid system, which is also matched with the familiar E-CVT gearbox. The official 100-kilometer comprehensive fuel consumption is 6.1L.

"We are like Apple in 1984, ‘when Apple had the revolutionary power to break IBM’s monopoly on the computing technology market.’ But now, ‘Apple is the behemoth it once accused of trying to control markets, stifle competition and stifle innovation.’"

The new payment system undoubtedly violated Apple’s App Store policies, and Apple responded quickly and aggressively by removing Fortnite entirely from the App Store. Epic was clearly well-prepared. Shortly after being taken down, Epic released a small video of "Fortnite", in which it mocked Apple from a former dragon slayer to a dragon, borrowing a meme from Apple’s famous 1984 MAC ad.

The classic 1984 Apple ad was about revolution and breaking IBM’s monopoly. But the video was more than a satire. Minutes after the video was released, Epic announced that it had filed a lawsuit against Apple.

The rivalry between the two sides is still escalating. Apple has taken down Epic’s developer account and iOS and MAC power builder. Epic claims this will prevent them from developing software for Apple’s platform, including Unreal Engine support for third-party developers on the iOS.

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However, according to an annual survey called "All Things Valve Should Know 3.0": Since 2018, game developers, especially in the West, have become increasingly negative about Valve and Steam, and have begun to lose confidence in Steam. They do not believe that it is reasonable to pay 30% of the platform’s commission to the store.

Epic became the initiator of this battle for platform royalties. Previously, with the popularity of its games such as Fortnite, Epic established its own game platform, Epic Games Store, packaged all its games, and used ultra-low royalties as a means to attract game developers. From previous news, Epic did not intend to treat Steam as a competitor, but more to convey that it wanted to change the 30% cut of computer games (PC) platforms. From the original game developer Deep Silver’s announcement that "Metro 2033" would be exclusive to Epic for a limited time for one year, to the later announcement of a limited time exclusive to the Epic platform by popular game developers, and then to Ubisoft’s removal of "The Division Blockade 2" directly from Steam, game makers and platforms are using actions to demonstrate their views on the cut.

Is 30% reasonable?

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The 30% platform commission is a traditional system, originally formulated by first-party console manufacturers such as Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft. The financial resources of Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft to operate platforms are unmatched by PC platform operations. They have also shown players that operating a PC-side platform, even a 12% commission, is also very profitable. Since the operation of the host platform and the operation of the PC platform are completely different from the difficulty level, it is indeed unreasonable for Steam to operate according to the platform commission of the host manufacturer.

Some netizens broke the relevant commission data of Tencent’s platform: if you just log in to Tencent’s platform, there will be a 30% commission; if you want to promote and use the server, the commission will increase to 50%~ 60%; if it is a mobile game, the commission will be 70%. In addition, the application treasure is 70%; the WeChat mini-game props internal purchase is 40%; the part of the single-day advertising revenue within 100,000 yuan, the developer can get 50% of it; the part of the single-day advertising revenue exceeding 100,000 yuan, the developer can get 30% of it. From this point of view, is the 30% commission not high?

In fact, this is not the case. In China, Tencent owns the vast majority of traffic, and even with a 70% cut, game developers or publishers earn more than many other platforms that take a 10% cut. The main reason why it is unreasonable to say that Steam’s 30% cut is that even in an ideal situation, the income of most profitable game companies is equivalent to the income of the platform, and even the income of the platform is higher than that of the game company. And online game platforms such as Steam,Neither do they have to bear the high costs associated with physical stores and logistics, nor do they have the obligation to help game companies promote their games, which has caused many game makers to be dissatisfied with the 30% cut in recent years.

For an indie game studio, such a high cut would pose a dilemma for the entire team.If the game is handed over to a large company for distribution, and the large company cooperates with Steam, it is equivalent to being drawn twice. And if the independent game team wants to log in to Steam by itself, it will encounter more resistance. On the one hand, Steam will not provide these studios with upfront funding, and it is difficult for an independent development team to complete the game independently without the help of the operating company. On the other hand, the promotion and marketing of the game is very important, and most independent studios do not have the ability to do the follow-up work themselves. In addition, for low-cost indie games, publishing on a high-traffic platform like Steam represents more opportunities, and the advantages outweigh the disadvantages than the high commission.

The fantasy video game website (IGN) has sorted out the sales data of major online sales platforms from dozens of information sources. Surprisingly, the data provided by the vast majority of sources is exactly the same, that is, 30% of the platform. Not only Steam and Apple, but also online sales platforms such as Microsoft, Sony, Google, Nintendo, and offline sales platforms such as Amazon and Walmart draw 30%.It can be seen that a 30% cut is a common practice in the industry and a major environment in the game business community.

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In the eyes of most game developers, Epic played the role of a revolutionary pioneer, a "leading brother" who explicitly proposed that the 30% cut was unreasonable. However, in the eyes of players, this was not the case. Negative comments on Epic were widely circulated among players. In the eyes of many players, Epic was a speculator, doing things to occupy the market under the name of lowering the platform’s cut.

This phenomenon is very easy to understand, because the level of the platform does not affect the price of the game too much, players can not feel the intuitive benefits, and Epic as a latecomer, the player group is far less than the predecessor Steam, in the platform function and user experience are not as good as Steam, most Steam users are not surprising to Epic.

But there are still reasons to believe that Epic is determined to change the platform’s commission. A 12% commission will undoubtedly attract more and more games to the Epic platform, and Epic expands its player base through a large number of free games and benefits. The substantial benefits that low commissions bring to game developers will gradually emerge, and more outstanding studios in trouble can show their talents on the Epic platform.

In the new game market system, a model full of reform and innovation may be vacated, and Epic has become the person who raises the revolutionary banner, but whether it can become the ultimate winner remains to be seen.

(Li Meng is a master’s tutor at the School of Animation and Digital Art, Communication University of China; He Yucheng is a graduate student at the School of Animation and Digital Art, Communication University of China)

On August 24, Meituan (stock code: 3690.HK) released the second quarter and half-year results of 2023. The company’s revenue in the first half of the year was 126.582 billion yuan, an increase of 30.2% year-on-year; the adjusted profit was 13.151 billion yuan, and the adjusted net loss was 1.528 billion yuan in the same period last year. Meituan benefited from the recovery of consumption in the first half of the year, and the growth of various businesses was stable.

Among them, Meituan achieved revenue of 68 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year, an increase of 33.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate exceeded Quarter 1. Among them, the core local business in the second quarter increased by 39.2% year-on-year, also exceeding Quarter 1. However, restricted by cold chain and logistics expenses, Meituan’s new business revenue in the second quarter increased by 18.4% year-on-year, lower than the growth rate of the business in the first quarter.

"Thanks to the arrival of the traditional peak consumption season, the company’s various businesses achieved healthy growth in this quarter," said Wang Xing, CEO of Meituan. "With the local lifestyle market showing a good trend of steady recovery, we will continue to focus on the’retail + technology ‘strategy to meet the increasingly diverse consumer needs of users, and use technology to promote the efficiency of local commodity retail and service retail."

The recovery of core local businesses accelerated in the second quarter, growing faster than in the first quarter

In 2022, Meituan adjusted and updated the statistical caliber, and adjusted the original catering takeaway, to stores, hotels and tourism, new business and other sectors to core local business and new business.

After the adjustment, the core local business segments mainly include the original catering takeaway and delivery, hotel and tourism segments, as well as Meituan flash sale, homestay and transportation ticketing.

Meituan continued to focus on meeting local consumer demand. Driven by this, Meituan’s core local business achieved steady growth in the first half of the year, with revenue of 94.085 billion yuan, an increase of 32.6% year-on-year.

Among them, Meituan’s core local business revenue reached 51.20 billion yuan in the second quarter, an increase of 39.2% year-on-year. Operating profit increased by 34.8% year-on-year to 11.10 billion yuan, and operating profit margin was 21.8%.

Meituan Quarter 1’s core local business revenue reached 42.90 billion yuan, an increase of 25.5% year-on-year. Operating profit was 9.40 billion yuan, an increase of 100.7% year-on-year; while operating profit margin increased to 22.0% from 13.8% in the same period in 2022. Second quarter revenue growth was significantly faster than Quarter 1.

Meituan’s instant retail scene and richness continue to expand. In the second quarter, the number of instant delivery orders increased by 31.6% year-on-year to 5.40 billion orders. By strengthening supply and optimizing subsidy strategies, the stickiness between users and platforms has further increased. In this context, Meituan’s monthly takeaway orders reached a record high in August.

Stimulated by numerous holiday consumption and marketing activities in the second quarter, the online penetration rate of electronic products and home appliances in second- and third-tier cities accelerated significantly, and categories such as daily necessities, beauty and personal care, and maternal and infant products all showed strong quarterly growth.

Meituan’s "Little Yellow Light Health Guardian Alliance" plans to launch digital pharmacies that can see a doctor 24 hours a day to buy medicine in 1,000 counties this year, and is expected to meet the needs of county residents 100 million times this year.

The peak order volume of Meituan flash sale exceeded 11 million orders again in the second quarter, and the demand side in turn promoted the richness of the supply side on the platform. The number of active merchants in Meituan flash sale increased by 30% year-on-year.

Meituan helps serve the digital transformation of the retail industry. The number of new merchants entering Meituan takeaway in the quarter more than doubled year-on-year, of which the growth rate of brand merchants was particularly strong; the transaction volume of the wine and hotel business increased by more than 120% compared with the same period last year, and the number of annual active merchants and annual transaction users also reached a new high.

Meituan’s hotel and tourism business saw strong growth in the second quarter as the domestic tourism industry continued to pick up. "Hotel + X" package products were enriched for leisure travel and vacation scenarios. Deepen cooperation with more hotel brands to improve pricing power. Increase the supply of overseas hotels and expand the outbound travel customer base. In terms of homestays, enhance the experience of consumers and landlords, and better match demand and supply.

New Business Second Quarter Revenue Growth Slower Than Quarter 1

The new businesses mainly include Meituan Preferred, Meituan market, catering supply chain (fast donkey), online car-hailing, shared bicycles, shared motorcycles, power banks, restaurant management systems and other new businesses.

Meituan’s new business revenue in the first half of the year was 32.497 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8% year-on-year. The operating loss was 10.222 billion yuan, and the operating loss in the same period last year was 15.243 billion yuan.

Among them, the second quarter revenue of new business 16.80 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4%. Operating loss narrowed 23.5% year-on-year to 5.20 billion yuan, and the operating loss rate improved to 31.0%.

New business Quarter 1 revenue rose 30.1% year-on-year to 15.70 billion yuan. Operating loss narrowed 40.5% year-on-year to 5 billion yuan, while operating loss ratio continued to improve to 32.0%. From this point of view, the second quarter recovery of new business is not as good as Quarter 1.

In the second quarter, Meituan Preferred transaction volume and revenue continued to grow year-on-year, but the growth rate declined due to the lower-than-expected growth rate of the overall market. Operational efficiency improved significantly compared to the same period last year. Meituan Preferred revenue, recognized on a net basis, declined quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to higher subsidies, which led to lower average price of pieces.

Meituan’s quarterly operating loss widened quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to business expansion, increased subsidies to drive growth, spending on cold chain and logistics to cope with the upcoming hot weather, and seasonal product portfolio changes.

Meituan said that although it faces difficulties in optimizing its business model in the short term, it believes that the online process of groceries will continue, and remains confident in the long-term potential of Meituan Preferred. As of the end of June, Meituan Preferred has reached 470 million cumulative trading users.

Despite a high base in the same period last year, Meituan market recorded a solid year-on-year growth in the second quarter and achieved a higher market share. The proportion of transactions of standard products and private brands continued to increase, effectively increasing the frequency of users.

In June, Wang Huiwen resigned as a non-executive director of Meituan due to personal health reasons. Subsequently, Meituan announced the completion of the acquisition of 100% of the shares of domestic and foreign entities outside the light year, and the purchase price was about 2.065 billion.

In July, Meituan drone fourth-generation new models were released. Meituan drone has been operating in multiple cities such as Shenzhen and Shanghai, and has delivered nearly 170,000 orders in two years. The financial report shows that Meituan’s R & D expenditure in the second quarter increased to 5.40 billion yuan year-on-year.

Meituan’s sales and marketing expenses increased from 9 billion yuan in the second quarter of 2022 to 14.60 billion yuan in the same period in 2023. This was mainly due to the recovery in consumption and changes in the business environment, resulting in higher transaction user incentive, promotion and advertising expenses, and higher employee benefits expenses.

The company’s general and administrative expenses decreased from $2.50 billion in the second quarter of 2022 to $2.10 billion in the same period in 2023, mainly due to lower employee benefit expenses and improved operating leverage.

Meituan CFO Chen Shaohui said that in the first half of this year, the local life sector benefited from the vigorous growth momentum of commodity retail and service retail, meeting more new demand and creating more new supply. In the future, Meituan will further promote the digital upgrade of the commodity retail and service retail industry.

Chen Weicheng, Shell Financial Reporter, Beijing News

Editor, Chao Xu

Proofreading, Liu Baoqing

　　Xingrui L/ Xingyue L Zhiqing Time to Market: December 3rd.

　　The official map of Xingrui L Zhiqing has been released, and the new car has been mass-produced off the assembly line. Xingrui L Zhiqing adopts straight waterfall grille design, and the whole front face looks very delicate and elegant. The interior design of the new car takes a simple route, and the large-size central control panel placed vertically significantly enhances the sense of science and technology in the car.

　　The wheelbase of Xingrui L Zhiqing is 2800mm, and the length, width and height are 4825/1880/1469mm respectively. Compared with Xingrui, the body of Xingrui L Zhiqing is longer and wider. In terms of power, Xingrui L Zhiqing will be equipped with a 1.5T oil-electric hybrid system to achieve higher fuel economy. The maximum power of the 1.5T four-cylinder engine of Xingrui L Zhiqing is 120kW.

　　As a modified model, Xingyue L Zhiqing has been adjusted as a whole, bringing different visual effects. The car is equipped with a brand-new front grille, and the interior is decorated with straight waterfall elements. The car will continue the design of the current Xingyue L, equipped with 12.3-inch digital LCD instrument+touch HD central control screen+touch HD passenger dedicated screen, 25.6-inch AR-HUD augmented reality head-up display system, L2 intelligent driving assistance system, etc. The power is equipped with a 1.5T four-cylinder hybrid special engine.

　　BYD Song L time to market: December 15th.

　　BYD Song L has started the pre-sale at an early stage, and the price is 220,000-280,000 yuan. The new car can be said to be a beautiful SUV of BYD. This aesthetic feeling is mainly reflected in the rear of the car body, and elements such as slip back design, penetrating taillights and two small tails on the roof are intertwined, creating a strong sense of trend and movement.

　　Song L is not only beautiful, but also pursues practicality. The sliding back of this car starts from the C-pillar, which can effectively ensure the spacious space in the car. At the same time, Song L will also be equipped with cloud system, single/double motors and other configurations, which have both long battery life and high performance. The interior of Song L uses a family-style design style.

　　Time to market of M9: within 12 months

　　As a brand-new large-scale SUV under AITO brand, Wenjie M9 plans to launch extended-range and pure electric vehicles, in which the wheelbase of pure electric vehicles is 3110mm, and the length, width and height are 5230/1999/1800mm respectively, which is consistent with the extended-range version. According to official information, the price of the extended version of the M9 is expected to be 500,000-600,000 yuan; The estimated price of the pure electric version is also 500,000-600,000 yuan.

　　The most powerful should be the big screen of the M9, which can carry 10 screens when fully equipped! The concept of getting on the bus with a screen up to 100 inches is very exciting. There are all color TVs, refrigerators and big sofas. There is also news that there is a laser projection in the back row, and the experience of outdoor camping is full. However, the interior map of this car has not been announced yet.

　　The M9 pure electric version will be equipped with dual motors, with the maximum power of 160kW and 230kW respectively. The extended-range version is also equipped with dual motors, with the maximum power of 165kW and 200kW respectively, and a 1.5T engine with the maximum power of 112kW. The M9 is called "the best SUV within 10 million".　

　　Time to market of Star Road Star Era ES: within December.

　　As a new energy sequence of Xingtu Automobile, Xingjiyuan will launch the first model ES. The medium-sized and large-sized pure electric cars are positioned by ES in Xingyue, with the length, width and height of 4945*1978*1489(1480/1467)mm and the wheelbase of 3000mm respectively. Xingjiyuan ES is a new energy car with personality.

　　Xingyue ES also adopts the common enclosed grille of pure electric vehicles, but the design of penetrating headlights and fog lamps on both sides is very exaggerated, and the wheel hub design with various sizes and shapes brings a strong visual impact. The interior is a low-key luxury route, with a combination of suspended large screen and small instrument. The central control panel is equipped with crystal decoration, and the seat material is soft and delicate, which creates a good interior atmosphere after lighting the ambient light.

　　Power is provided by single-motor and dual-motor models, which can enter the 3-second club with the fastest acceleration of zero hundred, and the cruising range is expected to reach more than 700 kilometers. Xingyue ES will also be equipped with rear wheel steering and air suspension. This will be a new energy car that focuses on handling and sports.

　　Time to market of Ruifeng RF8: within December.

　　Jianghuai Ruifeng brand brings new intelligent hybrid MPV— — Ruifeng RF8 appeared at the 2023 Chengdu Auto Show. Ruifeng RF8 is the first MPV exclusive architecture in China — — The first mass production model under the MUSE architecture, positioning medium and large public business and home MPV. In design, Ruifeng RF8 will introduce three kinds of front faces for consumers to choose from. In terms of intelligence, Ruifeng RF8 is the world’s first intelligent MPV equipped with HarmonyOS cockpit, which can realize L2+ intelligent assisted driving.

　　In the power part, Ruifeng RF8 will be equipped with 3DHT intelligent hybrid system, with a comprehensive power of 310kW and a comprehensive torque of 745 N m.. Under urban working conditions, the pure battery life of Ruifeng RF8 can exceed 200km, and the comprehensive battery life can exceed 1,200 km. According to the official plan, Ruifeng RF8 will be officially listed in December this year.

　　Ruifeng RF8 also has some bright spots in terms of space, safety and intelligence. Among them, Ruifeng RF8 has a body length of over 5.2 meters and a wheelbase of 3.1 meters. This body size also gives Ruifeng RF8 ample interior space, and all the seats in the car are matched with long-distance slide rails, which gives more freedom in interior space, and various scene modes can be unlocked through various flexible combinations.

　　New models listed in December, new energy vehicles still occupy the forefront, and major car companies pay more and more attention to new energy vehicles, among which Song L and Wen Jie M9 are all worth looking forward to.