Our reporter Roman

During the Spring Festival, the happiest thing is for the whole family to sit around and have a reunion dinner. However, for homeless vagrants, it is an extravagant hope to have a reunion dinner with their families. In order to let the rescuers have a warm and happy New Year, this (5th) morning, Luzhou Rescue Management Station specially held a Spring Festival Youth League activity for them.

Sticking Spring Festival couplets and decorating … The staff of the rescue station began to decorate the station for the upcoming Spring Festival a few days ago to create a festive New Year atmosphere. Early this morning, everyone began to be busy, preparing melons, fruits, snacks and delicious food for the recipients.

At noon, the recipients put on beaming new cotton-padded jackets, sat around, watched TV and had a reunion dinner to celebrate the New Year.

According to Jiang Weifen, the stationmaster of the municipal rescue management station, there are currently 14 recipients in the municipal rescue management station, four of whom have recently entered the station and are still in isolation. Due to the need of epidemic prevention and control, there are 10 recipients attending the annual meeting of the group today, and they also eat separately, and the other four are delivered by special personnel.

The staff served meals for everyone.

At the annual meeting of the Communist Youth League, although everyone wore masks, it was hard to hide their joy. The recipients and the staff were talking and laughing together, and they were very happy. Several recipients even danced with the music. The scene was full of laughter, joy and peace.

Jiang Weifen told reporters that all the 14 recipients at present have mental and intellectual disabilities, and they have not found out their identity and family information. The longest time to come to the station has been more than one year, of which the youngest is 15 years old and the oldest is about 70 years old.

Maybe they have a home in their heart, but they don’t know where they come from, where their home is, and whether they have any family. In the city rescue management station, the staff treat them as relatives and children, and take care of them patiently and carefully, so that they have a place to live and a "home". Having a reunion dinner together on the occasion of the New Year makes them feel the festive atmosphere and the warmth of home. This is undoubtedly the embodiment of the motherland’s growing strength, social civilization’s progress and love everywhere in the new era.

Original title: "This is a special reunion dinner …"

　　Tomorrow, our mobile phone will be screened by Buffett again!

　　At 22:15 Beijing time on May 4th, the annual shareholders’ meeting of Berkshire Hathaway will be held in Omaha, USA. It is estimated that about 30,000 shareholders will attend, and millions of people will watch it online. The most noteworthy issues of this shareholders’ meeting include:

　　Who is Buffett’s successor? — — Bashen is 88 years old and Munger is 95 years old.

　　What about Berkshire’s more than $110 billion in cash? — — Look at the company’s share price of $320,000. Do you still think Maotai is expensive?

　　The repurchase scale will be as high as $100 billion? — — There are not many good companies worth buying, so I have to buy myself.

　　However, for A-share investors, they may be more concerned about this question: What does Buffett think of the China market? Which stocks of A shares meet its stock selection criteria?

　　Which A shares can enter the eyes of the law?

　　There are many criteria for Buffett’s stock selection, but there are clear quantitative criteria. He only said one sentence, that is, the annual return on net assets (ROE) is greater than 20% for 10 consecutive years.

　　The so-called return on equity (ROE) is the ratio of company profits to shareholders’ equity. It represents the investment income of investors, in short, how much money the enterprise can earn for investors.

　　ROE is a measure of a company’s long-term profitability. The higher the ROE, the higher the net profit it earns with the same shareholder capital investment. According to Coca-Cola’s standard, that is, keeping the ROE above 20% for 10 consecutive years, it is the company that Buffett may like.

　　So, which companies in A shares meet Buffett’s standards?

　　Wind data shows that in the 10 years from 2009 to 2019, among the listed companies whose ROE (deduction/dilution) continuously exceeds 20%, there are only five listed companies in A shares, namely Kweichow Moutai, Haitian Weiye, Gree Electric, Yanghe and Chengde Lulu.

　　The average share price increase of these five listed companies in the past 10 years is 690.49%, and the annualized rate of return is 22.97%. The biggest increase is Kweichow Moutai, which rose 12 times in 10 years, followed by Gree Electric, which rose more than 11 times in 10 years.

　　If we relax the ROE standard to 15%, that is, we will keep the ROE above 15% for 10 consecutive years. So, how many companies in A shares meet this standard?

　　Wind data shows that in the 10 years from 2009 to 2019, there were 14 listed companies with ROE (deduction/dilution) exceeding 15% continuously, namely Shuanghui Development, Kweichow Moutai, Haitian Weiye, Hikvision, Gree Electric, Huadong Medicine, Yanghe, Chengde Lulu, Hengrui Pharma, Chongda Technology, dongfeng shares, Fuyao Glass and so on.

　　The average share price increase of these 14 listed companies in the past 10 years is 551.72%, and the annualized rate of return is 20.62%. Among them, Hengrui Pharma, Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric rose more than 10 times, while Huadong Medicine, Hikvision and Golden Mantis rose more than 5 times.

　　Is Bashen’s strategy unacceptable?

　　In the past 10 years, what is the investment income of Warren Buffett?

　　According to media calculations, if an investor bought a dollar of Berkshire stock 10 years ago, the return today is about $2.4, but if this dollar is invested in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Fund, the return today is about $3.2. In other words, in the past 10 years, the income from investing in Berkshire has not been as high as that from investing in the S&P 500 index fund.

　　In 2018, the worst performance of global financial assets in the past 100 years, the "stock god" seems to be unhappy. Suffering from various "thunder" such as Apple’s performance falling short of expectations and Kraft Heinz’s performance changing face, Berkshire lost more than $25 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018, but still earned more than $4 billion in the whole year.

　　But in A-share market, Buffett’s stock picking strategy still seems feasible.

　　In the past decade, 108 A-share stocks have increased more than 5 times, and 29 have increased more than 10 times. The median ROE of these 29 stocks is 14.88%. During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 24.72%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 50.2%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 74.59%, and the Shenzhen dividend index rose by 132.51%.

　　Obviously, those companies with long-term earning ability and dividend-paying ability can surpass the market if they buy at a reasonable price. However, it should be pointed out that value investment is by no means equal to an ROE index, and the stocks selected according to it are not necessarily suitable investment targets, but only help us find out those good companies more easily.

　　The above data illustrates two problems:

　　First, as Buffett said: "By investing in index funds regularly, an investor who knows nothing can usually beat most professional fund managers." Buffett has recommended index funds for more than ten times.

　　In Buffett’s view, the vast majority of investors rarely invest in index funds, and as a result, their performance in investing in stocks is mostly just mediocre, or even disastrous. There are three main reasons for the loss of investment stocks:

　　1. The cost is too high, investors buy and sell too frequently, or the expenses are too large;

　　2. Investment decisions are made according to gossip or market trends, rather than after careful consideration and quantitative analysis of listed companies;

　　3, blindly chasing up and down, buying or selling at the wrong time.

　　Second, practice has proved that the companies with the strongest earning power in A-shares can bring rich long-term returns to investors.

　　The overall growth level of A-share listed companies is better than the average level of social enterprises. The long-term stock price trend charts of leading enterprises such as Gree Electric, Vanke A, China Merchants Bank, China Ping An and Fuyao Glass are all consistent with the development path of enterprises.

　　The method of value investment has not failed in A-shares. In fact, A-shares will create a good opportunity for value investors to pick up bargains every few years, making it easier for investors to meet good prices. Numerous masters have emphasized that all investment is to find a good industry, a good company and a good price.

　　Finally, Buffett has bought two China stocks so far — — China Petroleum and BYD.

　　In 2003, Buffett bought H shares of China Petroleum at a price of HK$ 1.6, and cleared the position when the share price reached HK$ 13.5 in 2007, with a four-year income of more than 7 times (the reinstatement factor has been considered, the same below). When Buffett bought it, the P/E ratio of China Petroleum was only 5 times, while when China Petroleum was listed on A-share in 2007, the P/E ratio of 48 yuan’s opening price was as high as 63 times.

　　In 2008, Buffett subscribed for 225 million shares of BYD at a price of about HK$ 8 per share. At present, Buffett still holds shares in BYD, and its latest share price is HK$ 53.55, and its income has exceeded five times. When Buffett bought BYD shares, the corresponding P/E ratio was only 10.2 times. At present, its latest P/E ratio is 39.29 times.

　　China securities journal Song Zhaoqing

BYD (002594.SZ) handed over its best report card since its listing.

On the evening of January 29th, BYD released its performance forecast for 2023. During this period, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 29 billion-31 billion yuan, up by about 86% year-on-year. The non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was RMB 27.4 billion-RMB 29.7 billion, up by about 90% year-on-year.

This performance is basically in line with market expectations. IChoice data shows that the average forecast of BYD’s net profit in 2023 is 28.332 billion yuan, which is almost the same as the median forecast of the company’s performance.

On the whole, the new energy vehicle industry continued to maintain a high-speed growth trend, and BYD’s new energy vehicle sales reached a record high, further consolidating the leading position of new energy vehicle sales in the world. The competition in the industry is more intense. With the rapid growth of the company’s overseas sales, the scale advantage of continuous expansion, and the ability to control the cost of the industrial chain, the profit has been greatly improved.

Judging from the production and sales data, BYD produced a total of 3,045,200 new energy vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62.24%; Accumulated sales of 3,024,400 new energy vehicles, up 62.30% year-on-year.

BYD’s sales in 2023 clearly outperformed the industry. Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the national sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to reach 8.62 million in 2023, up 31.7% year-on-year; Benefiting from the further improvement of the quantity of new models and the product pedigree of each price segment, BYD achieved the target sales of 3 million vehicles, significantly outperforming the industry.

In addition, BYD has continued to lay out in the sea. In 2023, BYD sold 243,000 new energy passenger cars overseas, a year-on-year increase of 334.2%.

Since the second half of 2023, BYD has continuously strengthened its overseas layout. In July, BYD announced the establishment of a factory in Brazil, with an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles. In September, Uzbekistan’s state-controlled automobile group announced that it would establish a joint venture company with BYD. The first/second phase of the factory plans to produce 500,000 units per year, and the output will reach 300,000 units after the completion of the third phase. In December, BYD announced that it would build a new energy vehicle production base in Segde, Hungary.

Minsheng Securities Research Report believes that BYD’s going out to sea is expected to usher in rapid development in Europe, Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand, helping sales to rise again in 2024.

Soochow securities gave a more optimistic judgment about the future. According to its research report, BYD actively promotes the layout of overseas markets, and the volume of overseas markets helps sales growth. 2024-2025 is the year of products, and the estimated sales volume is about 4 million and 5 million respectively, up by 33% and 25% respectively.

As for BYD’s other major business-mobile phone parts and assembly business, its profitability has also increased with the recovery of the consumer electronics industry.

BYD said that thanks to the increase in the business share of large overseas customers and the recovery of Android customers’ demand, the rapid growth of new energy vehicles and new smart products, the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved, the business structure has been further optimized, the profitability has been significantly improved, and the profit has increased substantially.

From 2020 to 2022, the gross profit margin of BYD’s mobile phone parts and assembly business was 11.20%, 7.57% and 6.06% respectively, showing a downward trend year by year. The semi-annual report in 2023 showed that the gross profit margin of this business was 8.77%, up 2.70 percentage points year-on-year.

Although the performance is very gratifying, BYD’s share price has not kept up. On January 29th, the company’s share price fell by 3.99%, hitting a new low since May 2021. BYD’s latest market value is 519.5 billion yuan.

　　BEIJING, Beijing, September 27 (Ma Xueling, Lu Chunrong) On the 27th, there was strong wind and cool weather in Beijing. With the cold air heading south, the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will generally drop in the next few days, which also makes the hot topic of "Crying in the Winter" once again appear on the Internet. So, will you really cry this winter?

　　Beijing gale cooling: it is estimated that the minimum temperature of level 7 gust is 12℃

　　This morning, there was a strong wind in Beijing, which made me feel cold.

　　China Weather Network reported that due to the influence of cold air, the northern wind began to take over the sky of Beijing at 4 or 5 o’clock this morning. According to meteorological monitoring, as of 5: 30 this morning, gusts of magnitude 6 or above have appeared in Haidian Station, Chedaogou, Xiangshan, Bei ‘an River, Fenghuangling, yongfeng middle school and Minzhuang.

　　The Beijing Meteorological Observatory issued a weather forecast at 6 o’clock today: it will be cloudy and sunny during the day, with a northerly wind of about five and a gust of about seven, with a maximum temperature of 23 C; It’s sunny at night, and the north wind turns from level 4 to level 23, with a minimum temperature of 12℃. In the gale blue warning, pay attention to wind protection and prevent falling objects.

　　At 17: 00 the day before, the Beijing Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning signal for strong winds. It is estimated that there will be northerly winds of Grade 4 and 5 from north to south in Beijing from 4: 00 to 20: 00 on the 27th, and the gust can reach about Grade 7.

　　Cold air goes south in a big way, and autumn tigers turn into paper tigers in seconds.

　　In addition to Beijing, this morning, most parts of Inner Mongolia also experienced significant cooling, with the cooling rate in some areas exceeding 10℃ and the temperature falling below 5℃.

　　According to the news released by the Central Meteorological Observatory this morning, it is estimated that the temperature in most parts of central and eastern China will drop by 4 ~ 6℃ from north to south from September 27th to 29th due to the influence of cold air, with the temperature drop in the south-south area of eastern Inner Mongolia and the south-central part of northeast China reaching 8 ~ 10℃. There are 5 ~ 6 winds in parts of central and eastern Inner Mongolia, southern Northeast China, eastern North China and eastern Huanghuai.

　　Under the influence of cold air, the highest temperature in southeastern and northeastern Inner Mongolia generally dropped to around 15℃, and in some areas it was only around 10℃. On the 28th, the lowest temperature in eastern Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang will drop to around 0℃. The highest temperature in North China has generally dropped by 20℃ in the early days, and autumn is getting stronger.

　　With cold air heading south and typhoon Miyu landing, the temperature in the south of the Yangtze River and South China will drop rapidly from 28th, and the highest temperature in most parts of the south of the Yangtze River and Guangdong will drop below 30℃. The hot weather will fade rapidly, and the autumn tiger will turn into a paper tiger.

　　Will you cry this winter?

　　For this windy and cool weather, some netizens said, "An autumn rain and a cold, in fact, it is nothing to cool down now. This winter, we may be frozen into dogs."

　　The reason why netizens have the above concerns is because of a word recently swiped — — La Nina.

　　The word "LaNina" comes from Spanish, originally meaning "little girl", which refers to the phenomenon that the sea surface temperature in the equatorial, Middle East and Pacific Ocean continues to be abnormally cold. If the 3-month moving average of SST anomaly is lower than -0.5℃ and lasts for at least 5 months, it is judged as a La Nina event.

　　Monitoring shows that in August 2016, the SST anomaly index in the equatorial Middle East Pacific was -0.53℃. According to the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Bureau, the equatorial Middle East Pacific entered La Nina state in August.

　　Li Xiaoquan, chief meteorologist of China Weather Network, said in an interview with Zhongxin. com (WeChat WeChat official account: cns2012) that it is still early in winter, and the authoritative meteorological department has not given the final forecast figures. It is still inconclusive whether La Nina will occur this winter.

　　"But now that we have entered the La Ni? a state, La Ni? a events may occur this winter. According to relevant analysis, in general, the probability of being cold this winter is greater." Li Xiaoquan said.

　　How powerful is La Nina?

　　According to China Weather Network, one of the impacts of La Nina event on China’s climate is that the temperature may be low in winter, which is prone to cold winter. Statistics show that since 1954, in the years affected by La Ni? a event, the proportion of cold winter in China has exceeded 80%.

　　For example, in the years affected by La Nina, the winter of 1954 was the coldest one, and the temperature was 2.95℃ lower than normal.

　　For another example, in early 2008, the La Nina incident was one of the important behind-the-scenes "pushers" of the once-in-50-year freezing rain and snow disaster in southern China.

　　According to regional statistics, in La Nina, the proportion of cold in winter in Tibet was the lowest, at 50%. In the northwest, southwest, south China and south China, it is as high as 80% or more.

　　Will La Nina definitely lead to a cold winter?

　　Will La Nina definitely lead to a cold winter? Li Xiaoquan said that normally, when La Nina happens, China will be colder in winter, but it doesn’t mean that it will enter the cold winter, but the probability of entering the cold winter is higher, especially in the southern region.

　　"La Nina came last year, which will make winter cold, but it doesn’t mean it will be particularly cold. It can be seen that some years have entered the cold winter, which is mostly related to the La Nina phenomenon, but it is not La Nina that will definitely enter the cold winter. "

　　As it said, it was also the winter of 1998/99 when the super El Ni? o turned to La Ni? a, but China experienced a warm winter.

　　China Weather Network reported on September 22nd that the equatorial Middle East and Pacific Ocean has entered La Nina state, but it has not reached the standard of La Nina event. China Meteorological Bureau will continuously monitor the development of La Nina.