The national economy continued to recover in July (authoritative release)
Cartography: Andy
Core reading
In July, the national economy was generally stable and the transformation and upgrading were solidly promoted. Domestic demand continues to expand, industrial upgrading continues, employment prices are generally stable, the momentum of innovation and green development is improving, and people’s livelihood security is strong and effective. Despite the pressure and challenges, there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery and high-quality development. In the second half of the year, the economy is expected to maintain a stable operation and the quality of development will continue to improve.
"In July, the national economy continued to recover, production demand was basically stable, employment prices were generally stable, and the quality of development was steadily improved." On August 15th, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Office.
At the press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that it will increase the release of service retail sales data from this month. Retail sales of services include retail sales of service activities in transportation, accommodation, catering, education, health, sports, entertainment and other fields. In the first seven months, the retail sales of services increased by 20.3% year-on-year.
Although the growth rate of some indicators has slowed down, the overall national economy continues to improve.
In the first half of the year, China’s economy continued to recover and the overall recovery was good. In July, the national economy was generally stable, and the transformation and upgrading were solidly promoted.
Domestic demand continues to expand. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.3% year-on-year; Retail sales of services increased by 20.3% year-on-year; The national investment in fixed assets (excluding farmers) increased by 3.4% year-on-year.
The trend of industrial upgrading continues. In the first seven months, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.5% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the growth rate of all investment; The added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, which continued to be faster than all industries above designated size; The production index of information transmission, software and information technology service industry increased by 11.9% year-on-year, and the development of modern service industry improved.
Employment prices are generally stable. In July, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the same period last year. In July, CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year due to the high base in the same period of last year, but increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the first increase in five months; The core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.
In response to the employment situation of young people concerned by the society, Fu Linghui said that since the beginning of this year, all localities have done everything possible to promote the employment of college graduates, and 198,000 offline campus recruitment activities have been held. According to the information of the education department, the employment situation of college graduates is generally stable, and the rate of implementation and the number of implementation have increased slightly compared with the same period of last year.
The momentum of innovation and green development is improving. In the first seven months, investment in scientific research and technical service industry increased by 23.1% year-on-year, investment in science and technology continued to increase, and the momentum of innovation-driven development continued to increase. In July, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 24.9% and 65.1% respectively, the green and low-carbon transformation continued to deepen, and new energy products grew rapidly.
People’s livelihood security is strong and effective. In the first seven months, raw coal production increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and power generation increased by 3.8%. In July, the grain price dropped by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month, and the prices of fresh vegetables, pigs, beef and mutton all dropped.
"In July, although the growth rate of some indicators slowed down, the overall national economy continued to improve." Fu Linghui said.
Industrial upgrading continues to advance, new kinetic energy accumulates and grows, and industrial operation is expected to remain generally stable.
In July, the national industrial producer’s ex-factory price (PPI) decreased by 4.4% year-on-year, which was 1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, narrowing the decline for the first time this year. PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points narrower than that of last month.
"The narrowing of PPI year-on-year decline is conducive to the improvement of corporate revenue and the recovery of industrial production." Fu Linghui said. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.7% year on year.
Judging from the industrial operation, there are four main characteristics of industrial production in July.
The development of high-end manufacturing and intelligent product manufacturing is generally good. With the extension of the industry to the high end, the high-end manufacturing industry represented by aerospace has grown rapidly. In July, the added value of aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 11.2% year-on-year. The expansion of residents’ demand for smart consumer products has driven the growth of related industries. In July, the added value of smart consumer equipment manufacturing increased by 15.3% year-on-year.
The development of new energy-related industries is improving, and new energy vehicles, photovoltaic cells and other products are growing rapidly, and the driving force for upstream and downstream industries is also increasing. In July, the output of charging piles increased by 26.6%; The output of ultra-white glass products for solar energy industry increased by 52.3%.
Production in the raw materials industry has accelerated. With the strengthening of terminal demand, the added value of raw material manufacturing industry increased by 8.8% year-on-year in July, 2 percentage points faster than last month. Among them, the added value of steel and oil and coal processing industries increased by 15.6% and 14.8% respectively.
"In the next stage, despite the market demand constraints, with the economic recovery, industrial upgrading continues to advance, new kinetic energy accumulates and grows, and industrial operation is expected to remain generally stable." Fu Linghui said.
With the enhancement of economic endogenous power and macro-policy control, the economy is expected to continue to recover.
Looking at the world, the world economy is still facing downward pressure. Looking at China, economic recovery still faces constraints such as insufficient demand, structural contradictions and cyclical problems.
"However, China’s domestic market has great potential, strong industrial base and wide development space, and its long-term positive fundamentals have not changed." Fu Linghui said that with the strengthening of economic endogenous power and macro-policy regulation, the economy is expected to continue to recover.
Domestic demand pulls on — —
From the perspective of consumption, the recovery of the consumer market is still going on.
Service consumption grew rapidly. Driven by summer travel, service consumption grew rapidly. In July, business passenger traffic increased by 47% year-on-year, and catering revenue increased by 15.8%.
Cultural and entertainment consumption continued to expand. In July, the box office revenue of national movies increased by 111% month-on-month, and entertainment activities such as cultural and sports performances increased significantly, driving consumption growth.
Online retailing continues to be active. In the first seven months, the online retail sales of physical goods nationwide increased by 10% year-on-year, accounting for 26.4% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, and contributing 35% to the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period.
Retail sales of physical stores grew steadily. With the increase of offline consumption activities, in the first seven months, the retail sales of limited physical stores increased by 4.2% year-on-year.
"In the next stage, with the economic recovery, the improvement of residents’ employment, the increase of income and the effective consumption promotion policy, consumption is expected to continue to expand." Fu Linghui said that from the observation of big data, tourism consumption is expected to continue to pick up, and related consumption such as electronic products and household consumption is expected to gradually improve.
From the perspective of investment, investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to continue to grow, helping the stable economic development.
In the first seven months, although investment in real estate development decreased by 8.5%, investment in infrastructure increased by 6.8% and investment in manufacturing increased by 5.7% year-on-year, which supported the expansion of investment in fixed assets.
Fu Linghui said that with the development of industrial upgrading and the enhancement of innovation drive, investment in manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to continue to grow, contributing to stable economic development.
The external environment is expected to improve — —
Look at the demand. "Since July, the global inflation level has dropped significantly, interest rate hikes in major economies may come to an end, the turmoil in global financial markets has eased, and the global economy may be better than expected." Fu Linghui said that this has created favorable conditions for the stable development of China’s foreign trade.
Look at the supply. China’s industrial system is complete, the supporting facilities are relatively perfect, and the competitiveness of goods export in the international market is strong. Since the beginning of this year, the share of China’s exports in the international market has remained basically stable, and foreign trade has shown strong resilience.
At the same time, China continued to diversify its trading partners. In the first seven months, the import and export of countries along the Belt and Road increased by 7.4% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all imports and exports. Fu Linghui said that in the second half of the year, China’s exports are expected to remain basically stable as the policy effect of stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade continues to emerge.
The macro-policy effect is gradually emerging — —
Since the beginning of this year, focusing on the key issues in economic operation, various departments have successively introduced policies to promote the consumption of home, electronic products and new energy vehicles, and introduced policies to accelerate the construction of charging infrastructure and promote private investment to expand investment.
"Recently, relevant departments are actively planning to implement a reserve policy to promote economic recovery." Fu Linghui said that the effects of these policies have gradually emerged, which will help promote economic recovery.
"On the whole, despite the pressures and challenges, there are many favorable conditions for sustained economic recovery and support for high-quality development. In the second half of the year, the economy is expected to maintain a stable operation and the quality of development will continue to improve." Fu Linghui said.