Times change, countries rise and fall.

　　The rise and fall of a country is driven by long-term factors as well as accidental events. At present, during the epidemic period we are experiencing, the performance of the United States lacks global leadership, and the over-issuance of the US dollar has once again made people question its status as an issuer of abuse reserve currency. The newly released International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that the proportion of US dollars in global foreign exchange reserves continues to decline, and it fell to 60.89% at the end of 2019, the lowest in recent years, and the proportion of RMB is 1.96%.

　　We often follow Bridgewater Dario’s point of view. He believes that in the "great cycle" of national strength, the status change of reserve currency is the slowest. Before that, the change of national strength was already taking place. By studying the long-term history of many countries, we can reveal the most important influencing factors of the great cycle of national strength.

　　What are these factors? We share with you Dario’s recent articles published in LinkedIn.

　　This article will explain the essential motivation behind the rise and decline of the strongest country in history. This is the essence of the law that I showed when I studied the dynasty changes of the past three reserve currency countries: the Netherlands, Britain and the United States, and six other important powers: Germany, France, Russia, India, Japan and China in the past 500 years. Besides, I also specially studied all the generational changes in China since the Tang Dynasty. In addition to seeing the transfer of wealth and power, we have also seen changes in all aspects of daily life such as science and technology, culture and art. These individual case studies will be elaborated in detail in Part 2. When we switch back and forth between historical cases and the underlying paradigm, we can see how these cases show the underlying paradigm (Fit the archetype) and how the paradigm I summarized can describe the actual situation of these historical cases well (the law reflected by the paradigm will be exactly the sum average of historical events).

　　As I mentioned above, the most important task of this article is to show you the eternal and universal operation law behind the world as much as possible and use it for me. For me, this process makes me feel obligated and full of energy. As I mentioned in my previous article, my curiosity and anxiety about the world prompted me to uncover the law behind it, but when I really did research, the whole process brought me a much grander picture of the world than I expected. In my opinion, all this reveals more clearly how people and countries have risen and weakened for thousands of years. Behind these ups and downs, there is a huge cycle that goes hand in hand, but I never realized all this before.

　　Although the grand picture I will show you is my independent view, readers, I also need to declare to you that I can’t show you this picture without help from all sides. It comes not only from my hard study in the past 18 months, but also from my deep discussion with top scholars and doers, a lot of hard reading of historical works with profound insights in the past, and the hard research of top research teams, combined with my investment experience in the global scope in the past 50 years. With so much help, it takes courage, humility and continuous efforts to explain the law of the rise and fall of great powers in history, and there is no guarantee that everything I say is correct. However, I am sure that most of what I said is right, and I also understand that this law gives me a strong ability to predict the future, and I can predict scenes that we have never seen in my life, because these things have been happening repeatedly in the historical process of social development. My goal is to make all this clear to you after my hard research and practice, so that it can be used by you.

　　01

　　Study the screening principles of countries

　　Let me make it clear first that the big country we study is not necessarily the country with the best living standard. There are two reasons: first, although wealth and power are what most people pursue, some people and some countries do not think these things are the most important and will not consider fighting for them. For example, some people think that having a peaceful and fulfilling life is more important than having a lot of wealth and power. They don’t pursue wealth and power constantly, so they are not the object of study. Secondly, the countries studied do not include the so-called "boutique countries" (such as Switzerland and Singapore), which have high wealth and living standards, but are not large enough to become big countries.

　　How do people acquire wealth and power?

　　Let’s look at the big picture. Throughout the well-documented history, various forms of people (such as tribes, kingdoms, countries) have either created themselves or obtained wealth and power from others. When they gather more forces than any other organization, they become the world’s leading forces and then determine the world order. When they lost that power (as every big country did in the past), wealth, power and world order changed greatly, which had a great impact on economy, market and all aspects of life. In this chapter, we will study how many forces jointly determine the ups and downs of this cycle, so as to regularly make the wealth and power of big countries rise first, then maintain, and then decline (Causing the archetypal empire’s wealth and power to rise, be sustained, and then decline).

　　With the passage of time, the development of society and the improvement of productivity, the world’s total wealth, total rights and living standards have been continuously improved. In the whole human society, the gains from learning always outweigh the losses. Although due to the differences in education level, work ability and scientific and technological development level, different people’s learning productivity has increased at different speeds. Knowing this, those in power can make better policies and make the country develop better; Investors and company managers can therefore decide how to make better investments. Although the improvement of learning ability and productivity level is of great significance, they are constantly innovating, so they are not the cause of major changes in people with wealth and power.

　　The sharp fluctuation of wealth and power is caused by many factors, although I have identified 17 influencing factors, the most important of which is the currency and credit cycle. These powerful forces usually come together in classical cycles, which tend to form a very large ups and downs cycle in a complementary way and appear repeatedly throughout history. This huge archetypical cycle controls the rise and fall of empires, which affects everything, including their currencies and markets. Like the archetypical debt cycle I outlined in Debt Crisis-My Coping Principles, this cycle paradigm represents a typical debt cycle that we can compare with other debtors, including the debt cycle we are in now. Knowing this, we can try to get a glimpse of the future through the gap.

　　At the time of writing this article, we see that all these 17 forces are at work, and the most important ones are the debt cycle, the gap between the rich and the poor cycle and the global geopolitical cycle. As mentioned in the previous article, we recently lowered the interest rate to 0% during the economic downturn, and at the same time carried a lot of debts. This has led to a large number of government debts, and central banks are printing money for monetization. At the same time, there is a huge gap in politics and values between countries, and the emerging world power (China) is challenging the current world power (the United States). Although this situation has never happened in our life, it has happened many times in history (the most recent one happened in 1930-45). I will explain to you in this article that we are now experiencing an archetypal big shift in relative wealth and power, and with this change, we will witness the profound changes in the world order that have affected all countries.

　　The reason why the transfer of wealth and power between countries is often overlooked is that although it is rapidly forming, it has not suddenly appeared. This neglected but obvious thing shocked us. Most people don’t pay attention to the laws of history, so they can’t accurately understand our current situation. Therefore, in this article, I will describe in a very concise way how I view the archetypical mechanics behind the rise and fall of big countries and their market operations.

　　In order to see the whole picture of historical changes, you can’t get too entangled in details.

　　If I want to show you all this huge picture called "the changes of human history", then I can’t concentrate on presenting every detail. Similarly, as an appreciation of the scroll, please understand this and try to look at it from a macro and divergent perspective. This is because we are trying to understand and appreciate the evolution and changes that span a long period of history. In order to see these changes, we have to ignore some details. Of course, when we should stop and pay attention to the details (some specific details are very, very important), I will switch from macro narrative to micro-description, so that we can take a closer look at these details.

　　Examining what happened in the past from the grand perspective of human historical changes will fundamentally change the way we look at things. For example, many things we take for granted, many words we blurt out, did not exist in most historical periods. Therefore, I will try my best to present the whole historical picture to you vividly, but I won’t get entangled in all the details of history. However, in the cases we studied, I will present you with relatively complete details.

　　For example, we should carefully understand the differences between different countries, kingdoms, nations, nations, tribes, empires and dynasties. Nowadays, we mostly talk about (sovereign) countries, but it is well known that sovereign countries did not appear until the 17th century after the Thirty Years’ War in Europe. Generally speaking, there was no modern country before that, only the kingdom could be seen. But in some places today, the kingdom still exists, and the boundaries with sovereign countries are unclear, and some places have both. Generally speaking, the kingdom is the smallest, the country is the second, and the empire is the largest, and the relationship between them is not clear. Britain was a kingdom at first, then evolved into a sovereign country, and finally became an empire whose borders extended beyond England, so that its leaders could control a vast area and many non-Anglo-Saxon people.

　　Similarly, each type of political entity (such as country, kingdom, tribe and empire) controls population in different ways, which puzzles those researchers who strive for perfection. In some cases, empire refers to the area occupied by the ruling power; Sometimes it refers to those areas that are influenced by the ruling power through threats and inducements. The British empire occupied the territory of the empire in general, while the United States controlled more countries by relying on the "carrot+stick" strategy. Although this is not entirely correct, at the time of writing, the United States has military bases in 70 countries, so it is obvious that there is an "American empire", but what it refers to is controversial. Anyway, I hope readers understand what I mean: trying to be precise in words may hinder me from conveying more important information. So in this article, you will have to put up with my ubiquitous uncertainty. You also need to understand why I collectively refer to these political entities as countries, even if it is not technically the case.

　　Some people may think that it is impossible for me to compare different countries and different systems at different times. I can understand this view, but I assure you that I will try my best to explain any differences, but the similarities between eternity and universality in history far outweigh the differences. It is extremely sad to let differences prevent us from seeing the laws of history clearly.

　　03 historical change and the cycle that goes hand in hand.

　　As mentioned above, the long-term progress of mankind depends on constantly doing things better, that is, improving productivity. In the long run, learning and constantly improving productivity is the most important force; Although economic cycle fluctuation is also important in the short term, it cannot change the long-term trend. The chart below shows the changes of global per capita production value (estimated real GDP) in the past 500 years, which can also illustrate this point.

　　Estimates of global GDP per capita in the past 500 years (based on 2017 US dollars, taking logarithm)

　　From this top-down perspective, we can observe that the growth rate of global per capita output was very slow in the early days, but the slope of the growth curve suddenly became steep around 1800, reflecting the rapid improvement of production efficiency. Such changes have benefited from the improvement of the education level of the whole people and the transformation of educational achievements into productive forces. This change is caused by many factors, which can be traced back to the invention of the printing press in Europe in the mid-15th century (China used it very early), which improved the knowledge and education level of more people and contributed to the Renaissance, the scientific revolution, the Enlightenment and the first industrial revolution in Britain.

　　The popularization of education has also shifted wealth and power from the agricultural economy to the industrial economy. In the agricultural economy, monarchs, nobles and churches jointly own land and make profits from it; In the industrial economy, capitalists create and own the means of production, and together with the (secular) government, they maintain a system that enables them to make profits and take power for a long time. In other words, this system has been operating since the industrial revolution; In this system, wealth and power come from the combination of educational resources, innovative ability and capitalist system, and are controlled by those in power and those who control capital and educational resources.

　　However, behind the track of relatively steady increase in productivity, it is a turbulent era that witnessed prosperity and depression and experienced revolution and war. However, these turbulent periods are still weak relative to the long-term progress trend, so they only show a weak swing in the chart. These swings seem intense to us as individuals, but only because our lives are short and small.

　　Take the Great Depression and the war between 1929 and 1945 as an example. For us, these 17 years have been long and full of shock. The following chart reflects this period (economic situation), which is taken from the above line chart (reflecting the 200-year change). As you can see, GDP per capita fell by about 10% during the Great Depression, and then recovered, while the US stock market fell by 85%. The Great Depression was followed by World War II, which increased the production of munitions. However, due to the destruction of a large number of means of production, it is inaccurate to call this period "the era of mass production", even on a per capita basis. At the end of the war, the global per capita GDP dropped by about 12%, a large part of which was caused by the economic collapse of the defeated countries.

　　It can be seen that between 1929-1933 and 1944-46, the global per capita GDP dropped by 10% and 12% respectively.

　　Although the first chart I showed reflects the productivity of the world (to the best of our ability), it does not show the transfer of wealth and power between countries. The chart below shows the relative wealth and national strength of 11 world powers in the past 500 years. This wealth and power index is calculated by eight indicators, which I will introduce in detail later. Even though these data are not accurate due to the age, they still perfectly reflect the macro trend. As you can see, almost all big countries have experienced a period of rise and decline. Thick lines are the four most important big countries: the Netherlands, Britain, the United States and China, which have respectively mastered the three recent reserve currencies in history. It is the present tense for the United States, the past tense for Britain, and earlier for the Netherlands. I mention China because it has grown into the second most powerful country and remained so powerful for most of the time before 1850.

　　Medium-short period evolution

　　The chart shows: 1. Although China’s position declined sharply after the 19th century, it has been in a dominant position for centuries (always surpassing Europe in commodity trade); 2. As a relatively small country, the Netherlands became the greatest empire in the world in the 17th century. 3. Britain followed the Dutch model and reached the peak of its national strength in the 19th century; 4. In the end, the United States surpassed several countries and remained a world power for 150 years, especially after World War II and the war. Today, China is catching up.

　　The next chart dates back to 600 AD. In order to make the chart look simple, I included 500 years in the above chart. Although 11 countries, 12 major wars and a long history of 500 years can hardly be described as "simple". Long-period evolution

　　As the picture shows, 1500 years ago, China was almost always the most powerful, although the Arab Empire, French Empire, Mongolian Empire, Spanish Empire and Ottoman Empire also rose.

　　How do we measure the wealth and power level of a country?

　　In the first two charts, I measure the wealth and national strength of countries, which is basically obtained by averaging eight indicators. They are 1. Education; 2. Competitiveness; 3. the level of science and technology; 4. Economic output; 5. Trade share; 6. Military strength; 7. Strength of financial center and 8. Reserve currency. We will further discuss the measure of power later, but let’s focus on these eight key elements first.

　　Taking the year when China became the world’s largest country as the origin, we list the changes of various indicators in each of the 120 years before and after. The following table is the average data of many countries, but most of the weights are given to three countries with reserve currencies (namely, the United States, Britain and the Netherlands).

　　Paradigm law

　　These charts tell a good story about how great powers rise and fall. I will introduce other factors later, but before I do, let me briefly introduce the cycle. The first thing to note is that all these indicators are curved before and after the rise of great powers, because these indicators always complement each other. That is, the advantages and disadvantages in education, competitiveness, economic output and world trade share can be logically transformed into other advantages or disadvantages. For example, well-educated people will create a more innovative, competitive and productive society.

　　I call this up-and-down swing of national strength "the great cycle". Please pay attention to the order in which these factors influence each other, because it reflects the process of the rise and fall of big countries. For example, education is always the leading indicator, but the change of reserve currency status is long overdue. This is because a strong education will bring advantages to most fields, including creating the most widely circulated currency in the world. Like the common language in the world, habit will amplify the strength of money itself and make it circulate more permanently.

　　04 great cycle

　　Broadly speaking, we can divide the rise and decline of empire into three stages: 1. The rise stage is characterized by gaining competitive advantage; 2. In its heyday, the country maintained its strong strength, but gradually laid a bitter fruit for losing its competitive advantage; And 3. In the weak stage, the self-strengthening mechanism in all aspects of the country has declined.

　　In short, a country can only go uphill when it has the following characteristics:

　　1. Strong and promising leadership: the premise of all successful elements.

　　2. Good education: including teaching knowledge and skills.

　　3. Rock-solid virtues, civic literacy and strong professional ethics: they are passed down through school and family education, and help civil society achieve the following achievements, such as:

　　Low corruption rate and high respect for social rules such as the rule of law.

　　People can not only unite, but also have a consensus on why they need to unite: when a group of people with abundant knowledge, advanced skills, good virtues and good civic literacy unite, they will create:

　　4. A good resource allocation system, and can …

　　Attracting the best talents in the world is the most important condition for a country to succeed, and then, this country will …

　　6. gain strong competitiveness in the international market, so that the national income far exceeds the expenditure, which contributes to

　　7. Strong income growth helps …

　　8. Increase investment in infrastructure, education and research and development, so as to obtain

　　9. Higher production efficiency: the improvement of production efficiency means the simultaneous improvement of productivity and wealth level. When the country’s production efficiency is high enough, they can invest and exhibit:

　　10. New technologies: These new technologies will have commercial or military value; As these countries become more competitive with the above factors, they will

　　11. Take more shares in the national trading system: this makes it necessary for them to establish:

　　12. Powerful military force: protect trade routes and expand its influence on other countries. With their economic advantages, they have developed into the world’s leading …

　　13. financial center, which can gather and finance capital: (Amsterdam was the world financial center when the Dutch empire dominated the world; After Britain replaced it, London became a financial center; And new york’s status now comes from the hegemony of the United States. But China is also developing its financial system with Shanghai as the center.) These expanding empires have …

　　14. Strong stock, currency and credit markets: The currencies of countries that dominate trade and capital flows naturally become the first choice for trading media and wealth reserves, and develop into reserve currencies. According to this logic, when the Dutch empire dominated, the Dutch guilder was the global reserve currency; During the British Empire, the pound inherited this status. When the US dollar became the global reserve currency in 1944, the United States was only one step away from winning World War II, and it was obviously in a leading position in economy, finance and military affairs. Using a country’s currency as a reserve currency will naturally give the country stronger borrowing and purchasing power. As shown in the above figure, the opportunity for a country to gain or lose its status as a global reserve currency is much later than its other strengths.

　　Through unremitting efforts and other complementary factors, the empires achieved their rise and maintained their national strength. The founders of those empires coordinated economic, political and military strength, and built an economic-political-military system that constantly benefited from the international community. The Dutch founded the Dutch East India Company, Britain founded the British East India Company, and the United States had a military-industrial complex. Facts have proved that this kind of economic, political and military cooperation is essential to the expansion of the empire.

　　However, the development of the empire always has its platform period, which is because behind the success of the country’s rise, it also lays the groundwork for future weakness. Specifically, it includes:

　　During the boom, people’s income increased, making labor more expensive; Compared with countries with lower wages for the same job, competitiveness naturally declines.

　　The development model of the most successful countries will be imitated by emerging competitors, and shine on you is often superior to Blue, which makes the leaders lose their competitive advantage. During the British-Dutch hegemony, the labor cost of British shipyards was lower than that of the Netherlands; Therefore, the former chose to hire Dutch engineers to design ships with higher cost performance than the Netherlands. Because the cost of time and money required for copying is less than that of invention and creation, other things being equal, emerging empires hitchhike in mature countries through copying.

　　In those countries that are born rich, people will reduce their workload and engage in more leisure and low-productivity activities; In extreme cases, it becomes decadent and incompetent. Especially when the backbone of society changes from a generation that must work hard to succeed to a generation that inherits wealth, the younger generation is often fragile and inexperienced, and it is more likely to be defeated when confronted with challenges. As time goes by, people in these prosperous societies are more eager to pursue a leisurely and luxurious life, so they do not hesitate to lose their strength, create bubbles, and finally become more vulnerable.

　　The richest and most powerful countries have the status of global reserve currency, which gives them the privilege of borrowing a lot, so that they are caught in a debt trap. A large number of loans have enhanced the consumption power of hegemonic countries in the short term, but in the long run it is just the opposite. In other words, when lending and consumption are strong, hegemonic countries seem to be strong, but their financial strength is eroded. This lending model enables domestic people to over-consume, and provides funds for expanding the army and launching wars to enhance forces other than basic national strength. This model can be maintained for a period of time, even self-strengthening, thus increasing the interest return of creditor countries, thus enhancing the status of reserve currency.

　　When rich countries borrow money from developing countries, it is also one of the early signs of wealth transfer. In the 1980s, the per capita income of the United States was 40 times that of China, but at that time, China had begun to buy US Treasury bonds because the US dollar was the global reserve currency. At the same time, it also became the starting point for China to catch up with the United States. Similarly, Britain borrowed heavily from much poorer colonies during World War II; The Netherlands did something similar before its national strength went downhill, but when the creditors refused to hold and sell the Dutch guilder, the Dutch debt structure collapsed instantly, and its monetary status and economic situation plummeted. The United States has also borrowed a lot of money and reduced its debt by issuing more money, but this has not shaken the status of the dollar and the US debt for the time being.

　　When the number one power keeps "expanding its territory" until it is no longer worthwhile to maintain it, the cost of maintaining the system becomes higher than the income. The unprofitable global power system will further hit its financial situation, as is the case in the United States today.

　　Because of unequal distribution, the success of economic development naturally widens the gap between the rich and the poor. Those who have wealth and power (such as those who profit from business activities or those in the government) take care of each other and maintain a system that is beneficial to them, while ordinary people lag far behind until the polarization between the rich and the poor has become intolerable injustice. The same is true in the United States today.

　　The foreshadowing of decline is always buried in the golden age, and the prosperous country will gradually decline in the downward trend. This decline is due to the fact that when the country is going downhill, the power that can compete with it has developed relatively in the above-mentioned fields.

　　When the national debt is high, the central bank can only make ends meet in the face of a weak economy, and the downward state leads to more debt and economic problems, the country has to print a lot of money and devalue its currency.

　　If the gap between the rich and the poor widens infinitely, social values are polarized, and economic pressure (no matter where the pressure comes from) cannot be released, it will be easy for the rich and the poor to fight, and the initial conflicts will intensify later. This usually encourages political extremism, that is, populism of reformists (people who try to redistribute wealth) and conservatives (people who want wealth to be in the hands of rich people such as capitalists). Both democratic and centralized countries may become the soil of populism.

　　When the rich are worried that their wealth will be taken away, or they will become the target of public criticism, they will transfer their wealth and life to places, assets or currencies that they think are safer. If this transfer is not explicitly prohibited, it will erode the tax and income of the place where the assets are transferred out, making it experience a typical vicious circle of asset hollowing out. Shrinking tax revenue is even worse, aggravating the tense situation, increasing tax revenue, forcing more rich people to leave, and other worse consequences. For example, we now observe that the root of some social problems is that the rich have fled the state with higher taxes because they don’t want to face the financial pressure and the gap between the rich and the poor. When the hollowing out of assets is too serious, the government will come forward to stop it-it is forbidden to continuously collect funds from the lost places to their new places, assets or currencies, and people who want to protect themselves will feel panic.

　　Events that shake the foundation will devour the country’s productive forces. The size of the wealth cake is a little smaller, and people are fighting for shrinking resources; The cake is drying up day by day, and people are fighting over how to distribute it. Populist leaders of different camps are clamoring hard in the wrestling, hoping to control the situation and reorganize the order. At this time, democracy is particularly precarious compared with centralization. This is why in the 1920s and 1930s, Germany, Japan, Italy and Spain (as well as some small countries) were all centralized and pulled out the flag of the democratic camp, while the major democratic countries (the United States, Britain and France) also had the shadow of centralization. It is generally believed that in chaotic times, centralized and rapid decision-making is preferable to democratic decision-making based on discussion. Therefore, when the mass struggle against discipline and resorting to violence appears, the movement is not without merit.

　　If a country has strong enough economic, geopolitical and military forces to challenge the existing dominant forces, then there are many potential conflicts between these competing powers. Because there is no system for peaceful adjudication of such disputes, conflicts have to be resolved through a head-on contest.

　　When the cost of maintaining the image of a big country is greater than the income it brings, the economic strength of the country is hollowed out. At the same time, other countries are on the rise, and the big countries that are already strong in the outside world do not want to give away their interests. This state will make a strong country face economic and military threats. In order to maintain its status as a big country, military spending has been expanding again and again, but the domestic economy has been depressed, making it more difficult for leaders to collect taxes and making them need more domestic support. Seeing this dilemma, the enemy countries have chosen to strike at the beginning of the signs of the decline of great powers. Then, the big countries will face the difficult choice of facing or retreating economically and militarily.

　　If other external shocks, such as natural disasters (plague, drought or flood), occur in a fragile period when big countries are struggling to cope with internal and external troubles, it is tantamount to injecting another destructive force into the process of national decline.

　　It is also a problem when the number of people in a country who are vegetarian is not enough for the country to win in this cycle. Of course, since each leader is only responsible for a short part of this cycle, they can only solve problems on the basis left by their predecessors, which means that the National Games can control everything better than the leaders.

　　In a word, due to the improvement of productivity, cakes are constantly expanding, and some cycles have emerged.

　　The construction period of the country’s peak. Due to:

　　1. Relatively low debt level

　　2. Relatively small wealth, value and political views gap.

　　3. People work together to create prosperity.

　　4. Good education and infrastructure

　　5. Competent leadership.

　　6. A peaceful world order led by one or more major powers.

　　When it flourished and declined, the country went to a period of deconstruction and reorganization. The reason for the country’s prosperity has gone to the opposite side and turned into a fatal weakness:

　　1. High debt

　　2. A huge gap in wealth, value and political views.

　　3. The cooperation between nationals broke down and they turned to attack each other.

　　4. Backward education and infrastructure

　　In order to maintain the state of over-expansion, great powers have gone through a painful period of struggle, destruction and reorganization under the challenge of new rising forces, which has given birth to a new order and laid the foundation for the coming of a new era.

　　Generally speaking, the 17 characteristic indicators in the figure below are the main forces driving the rise and fall of a country. For any country, the more each feature deviates to the left, the greater the possibility of its rise; The more you shift to the right, the greater the possibility of weakness. World powers tend to show more left-leaning characteristics, and under a virtuous circle, they continue to become stronger; However, if the management is not good, each characteristic index will shift to the right, and the country will go weak. At this time, new competitors can take the opportunity to rise, properly manage each characteristic index, and gradually the situation of strength has changed.

　　17 factors affecting the rise and fall of a country

　　In short, this is the reason why the rise and decline of great powers occur periodically. Now, I want you to do a little exercise: think carefully about whether the position of each characteristic index is to the left or to the right for the country/region you are interested in. What about the United States and China? What other countries are there? Make a judgment based on your intuition and compare it with my idea later. I will make a more systematic analysis of the characteristic indicators of these big countries later.

　　These positive and negative factors are actually intertwined and affect each other, bringing great changes to society. It is no coincidence that the huge gap between the rich and the poor, the debt crisis, the revolution, the war and the changes in the world pattern almost happened at the same time. The following picture outlines the history of the rise and fall of every big country very clearly. As shown in the shaded area in the figure below, the destruction and reorganization caused by depression, revolution and war have largely destroyed the old system and laid the foundation for the emergence of new systems. These great depressions often occur every 10 to 20 years, but there may be more variables in this time period. Followed by a beautiful new world, no country is willing to compete with the world hegemon for the top spot, and well-behaved people begin to work and develop harmoniously. Usually, these beautiful periods can last for 40 to 80 years, but there will be great fluctuations. In the above two big cycles, there are also some small cycles, such as short-term debt crisis/business cycle, which last for 7 to 10 years.

　　Reserve currency cycle

　　For example, the decline of a Dutch power gives way to a British power, or Britain gives way to the United States. Most of the following things will happen in this process:

　　Debt restructuring and debt crisis are internal conflicts in countries, which eventually lead to the redistribution of wealth, the collapse of the status of foreign war reserve currency and the collapse of a new generation of domestic and international order

　　The last Great Depression occurred in 1930-45, which promoted the reconstruction period that began in 1945. More specifically, the collapse and reorganization of the monetary and credit system led to the depression in 1930-45, which led to the establishment of a new global monetary system (Bretton Woods system) based on the dollar in 1944. The huge gap between the rich and the poor in the Roaring 20s narrowed due to depression and war, which led to a fundamental change in the distribution of wealth and rights, and the global war also changed the world pattern. After 1945, everything has undergone earth-shaking changes. The United States became the world hegemon, the gold standard shifted, and a global monetary and credit system based on the dollar was established.

　　Translator’s Note: This refers to the 1920s in the western context, which was a period of sustained economic prosperity. In the past ten years, it covered countless exciting events, so some people called it "the most colorful era in history".

　　In this new world dominated by the United States, the United States has taken the lead in wealth, economic strength and military strength. It is the richest country with 80% of the world’s gold reserves; It is a country with the highest economic strength in the world, and its production capacity accounts for half of the world’s output; It is also a military power with absolute advantages, monopolizing nuclear weapons and having the most powerful conventional forces. However, after 75 years, the world pattern has also undergone fundamental changes, which we will discuss further in the following chapters. At that time, we will also try to predict and interpret the possible future development direction.

　　Next, we will study each indicator more carefully. In the last chapter, I will summarize all these indicators and carefully infer how to make our future better in view of our current situation. In the second part, I will make a detailed interpretation of each country’s case.

　　[1] Short-term cycle evolution chart

　　As for the above figure, these indexes consist of many different statistical data, some of which can be directly compared, while others are only an estimate. The data in some countries are always discontinuous, so different data need to be spliced together. It should be noted that the line shown on the chart is the 30-year moving average of these indexes, and I have adjusted it, so there will be no lag. The moving average is chosen because it is less volatile and can filter out a lot of noise, making the direction of the big period clearer. For a longer-term interpretation, I will use these curves smoothed by the moving average; On the contrary, for some more detailed interpretations, the unprocessed curve may contain more information.

　　[2] Chart of Paradigm Law

　　Regarding the above figure, we show the relationship between these key indicators and history by anchoring specific time periods in history. The value "1" on the Y axis represents the peak value of this indicator relative to history, and "0" represents the bottom. The X-axis, that is, the time axis, is displayed in units of years, where "0" roughly represents the time when many indicators of the country reach the peak. In the rest of this section, we will introduce the stages of paradigm law in more detail. As for the indicator of global reserve currency, we will focus on China. Although it has been a big country for centuries, its currency has never become a global reserve currency. The reasons behind this are worthy of our further study.

　　(A global M&A investment transaction information manager at your fingertips)

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Yijie DealGlobe. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

Due to the large power supply load gap, many industrial zones in Guangdong Province stopped production in turn and started off-peak electricity consumption to cope with the power supply problem.

According to "Zhongshan Daily" reported on May 26th, due to the acceleration of economic recovery and the continuous high temperature, the demand for electricity in Guangdong Province has been rising, and some areas in Guangdong have started the peak-shift electricity consumption mode. Some enterprises in Zhongshan have responded to the difficulties by purchasing generators and adjusting working hours.

"Zhongshan Daily" quoted a staff member of Chaozhou Power Supply Bureau as saying that the current load growth in some areas far exceeds expectations, and the power supply is tight or even insufficient at peak hours. If the power is overloaded, "the line is prone to collapse, causing a large-scale load trip and power outage, so some users need to cooperate with the peak shift to control power consumption".

Staggered peak power consumption refers to a series of measures to guide users to adjust their production arrangements in order to solve the short-term imbalance of power consumption load, and transfer part of the load in the peak period of power consumption to the low period of power consumption, so as to reduce the load difference between peak and valley.

According to the interface news, the peak electricity consumption has been in Guangdong Province for two weeks. By the end of May, the power rationing situation continued to increase, the scope was expanded and the time was lengthened. In some places, factories had been open for three times and stopped for four times, which had a negative impact on the order fulfillment of factories, and workers could only be arranged to work in shifts in the morning and evening on the day when the power supply could be normal.

On May 14th, a kitchen equipment manufacturer in Panyu District, Guangzhou disclosed a notice of off-peak electricity utilization, which showed that on May 16th, at the request of the superior power supply bureau, off-peak electricity utilization will be implemented every Saturday and work normally on Sundays, and the off-peak electricity utilization cycle is expected to last for three months.

Subsequently, Foshan, Shantou, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Chaozhou and other places began to implement off-peak electricity consumption.

On May 18th, Shantou City, Guangdong Province began to implement the "five stops and two stops" orderly power consumption. Industrial users need to take two days off every Tuesday from the benchmark date, and stop producing electricity at 9-12: 00, 14-17: 00 and 18-21: 00 during the peak hours of power consumption, and only keep the security and heat preservation load.

On May 19th, Humen Power Supply Bureau of Guangdong Power Grid issued a document saying that the customers of industrial transformer in the whole town need to implement the orderly power consumption plan from May to December, and impose an additional penalty of 48 hours of power outage on enterprises that unconsciously implement orderly power consumption.

On May 24th, Guzhen Town, Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province began to implement the "five stops and two stops" scheme. According to the notice issued by Guan Wei of the Party and Mass Service Center in Gusan Village, Guzhen Town, from now on, the peak-to-peak power outage will be on Sunday every week, and the power transmission will be stopped from 7: 00 am to 23:00 am every Sunday, and the elevator may not be used.

In addition, some industrial users can’t use electricity for production and work, and can’t turn on high-power electrical appliances, such as air conditioners, even if they have electricity during off-peak electricity consumption.

Since 2014, China’s economy has entered a new normal, the growth rate of electricity demand has slowed down, and the phenomenon of power rationing has rarely occurred. Even if it appears, it is mostly in the peak period of electricity consumption in July and August. Why did it appear in May earlier this year?

Ceng Ming, director of the Energy Internet Research Center of North China Electric Power University, told Interface News that there are four deep-seated reasons.

The first reason is that the electricity consumption plan arrangement is not accurate, which leads to the deviation of electricity demand arrangement on the power supply side; The second reason is that climate factors have a great influence on the demand for electricity. The high temperature weather in Guangdong has led to a significant increase in peak and valley load compared with the past. "Lack of electricity is the lack of peak load."

The third reason is that, due to the great compression of coal-fired power in recent years, the multi-energy complementarity between renewable energy and traditional energy is uncoordinated, which leads to power shortage. The fourth reason is that most of Guangdong’s electricity depends on external calls, and this year’s external calls may deviate from the original plan.

According to the news of Guangdong Electric Power Trading Center, according to the historical data of the 13th Five-Year Plan, May is in the alternate period of dry season and flood season, and the power generation capacity of the main clean energy hydropower is limited, and the maintenance of superimposed units and engineering power outages are relatively concentrated, which is actually the month with the smallest supply margin for the whole year.

From June to September, it entered the summer peak period, and the system load reached the highest value of the year. However, hydropower also entered the annual peak period, and the bidding space of market units was reduced.

But this year, Guangdong Province entered the summer ahead of schedule. The Guangdong Energy Bureau reported on May 21st that since May, the high temperature in Guangdong Province has been continuously high, with a temperature of 35℃, which is 4℃ higher than that in the same period last year, resulting in the rising demand for electricity, which has exceeded the highest load last year.

At the same time, the economic recovery is accelerating, especially the demand for electricity in the secondary and tertiary industries is strong. From January to April, the electricity consumption in the province increased by 32.2% and 40.2% respectively.

On May 10th, the Plan for Orderly Electricity Use in Guangzhou in 2021 approved by Guangzhou Bureau of Industry and Information Technology has shown that the overall power supply in Guangdong Province is expected to be tight in 2021.

Among them, the situation of power supply and demand in the province is severe during the alternation of dry season and summer peak period, and there is a big risk of power shortage. Affected by this, the power supply in Guangzhou power grid may be tight or even short at that time.

According to the research data of Guotai Junan Securities, as of 2018, the proportion of calls from outside Guangdong also exceeded 30%. Among them, Yunnan hydropower is a major power source.

However, in May this year, Yunnan, due to reasons such as not entering the flood season, had a gap in its own power, which led to the inability of western power to increase its power transmission during the tight power supply in Guangdong.

A pre-notice of emergency peak shifting preparation issued by Yunnan Power Grid on May 10th shows that the main reservoirs in Yunnan are seriously overdrawn, the coal storage in thermal power continues to decline, and the power generation is seriously less than expected. There is a power gap of about 700,000 kilowatts at the peak of electricity consumption that day.

The wet and dry seasons are distinct in most parts of Yunnan, with the dry season from November to April of the following year and the rainy season starting around May. According to the China Meteorological Bureau, the southern region entered the flood season late this year, and there was less precipitation in Yunnan in May. Recently, Lijiang City, Yuxi City and other places in Yunnan Province have issued orange warnings for drought.

Interface News contacted the relevant staff of China Southern Power Grid Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as China Southern Power Grid) for matters such as power shortage and off-peak power consumption in Guangdong, but the person did not give a direct response.

Founded in 2002, China Southern Power Grid is responsible for power supply and service in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan provinces.

　　The press in Shijiazhuang was greatly influenced by the Beijing-Tianjin press. In the early 1930s, there were nine foreign newspapers stationed in Shijiazhuang, and the sales of foreign newspapers in Shijiazhuang were also increasing. According to the statistics of Ta Kung Pao reporters in Shijiazhuang, "Tianjin Ta Kung Pao has the largest sales volume, with a daily sales volume of more than 200 copies; More than ten copies of the newspaper; More than 30 copies of Oriental Daily; Shanghai declared more than 30 copies; More than ten news reports; Seventy copies of Beijing (Tianjin) Yishi newspaper; Fifty copies of the vernacular newspaper; Forty small daily newspapers; The rest of North China Daily, World Daily, Qunqiang Daily, Beijing Daily, Morning News, Morning News, Shih Pao and Pinbao have sold more than 50 copies. Since then, it has become more prosperous. " Faced with the pressure from other places, local newspapers in Shijiazhuang compete with foreign newspapers in publishing content, distribution channels and sales prices. At the same time, there is competition among several local newspapers. Whoever wins the first place in layout and printing quality will cause dissatisfaction and tension among other newspapers.

　　Li Huimin reporter An Wenlian

　　The Beijing-Tianjin press has a great influence on Shijiazhuang newspapers.

　　Several local newspapers in Shijiazhuang can’t compete with the newspapers in big cities in terms of overall content, especially domestic and foreign news reports and comments.

　　Before the "July 7th Incident", the sources of important international and domestic news and commentary of all local newspapers came from the Central News Agency. After the fall of Shijiazhuang, most of the important international and domestic news and commentary articles that newspapers can use came from the telegrams of the Japanese "Allied Society"; After the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, the important international and domestic news and commentary contents of newspapers mainly copied the news recorded by the Kuomintang Central News Agency by radio.

　　At that time, Shijiazhuang already had the conditions to send news by telegraph to foreign journalists. The charge for Chinese telegrams was two cents and five cents per word, while that for foreign news telegrams was five cents per word. However, the utilization rate of local newspapers was not high, and most of the users were accredited journalists from foreign newspapers. Later, each newspaper had its own receiver, which could receive and translate telegrams at any time. In 1946, Shimen Daily often published all kinds of news at home and abroad in the name of "the report of the first radio room of this newspaper". Local news is generally contributed by special correspondents of local newspapers abroad, while a large amount of news in some tabloids relies on editing and editing of big newspaper news, with Shanghai News, Guangzhou News and Nanjing News as the news headers, serving as important news sources.

　　Every newspaper has "visitors"

　　In the competition of newspaper content, Shijiazhuang newspapers can only be reflected in local news, making a big fuss about local authorities’ notices, social trends, commercial ups and downs, cases of robbery and robbery, anecdotes of entertainers and civil conflict lawsuits.

　　Newspapers generally have "reporters", and most of them get information materials from chambers of commerce, police stations, trade associations and other departments or organs. During the Republic of China, Mr. Di Zhong, who worked as a reporter and editor in several newspapers in Shijiazhuang, said in his memoirs that the main organs and units he interviewed in that year were the social science department, the education department, the administrative department of the municipal police station, the court, the publicity department of the 11th Commission, the municipal chamber of commerce, banks, banks and Daxing cotton mill.

　　In the 1930s, Business Daily systematically reported the contents of all previous meetings of Shimen Chamber of Commerce and trade associations, and tracked and reported all kinds of notices and cases detected by the police station in detail. At that time, the number of employees in newspapers was generally small, and often one person held several jobs, working as a reporter, editing and even proofreading. After the Kuomintang took over the Shimen Daily, "there are only one or two reporters, and seven or eight articles have to be handed in every day". Therefore, it is extremely common to reprint the contents of other newspapers or simply edit and process some ready-made articles provided by local authorities.

　　Due to the shortage of reporters who go out to interview, the shortage of press releases, and the lack of professional quality and social responsibility of journalists, some hearsay news is compiled and distributed to newspapers without any investigation and verification, which leads to the low quality of most newspaper manuscripts and the phenomenon of inaccurate news often occurs. For example, when the People’s Liberation Army annihilated Hu Zongnan and his men and recovered Yan ‘an, the press release issued by Shijiazhuang newspaper still said that "Yan ‘an was impregnable and the communists suffered heavy casualties". On the eve of the liberation of Shijiazhuang, the third army of Chiang Kai-shek’s direct forces was completely annihilated in the battle of Qingfengdian in Baoding, and all the commanders and deputy commanders were captured alive. However, the press release still ignored the facts and reported that the national army had won a total victory and the third army had successfully returned to Shijiazhuang.

　　Pursuing the effect, reporting the adventure and novelty

　　Anecdotes and anecdotes are a means for newspapers to attract readers. During the Republic of China, Shijiazhuang newspapers "described in detail the incidents of murder, fire, grand theft, grand fraud, etc. reported from police stations, courts or social contacts, so as to make people feel sensational, thus attracting readers and expanding newspaper distribution."

　　In order to increase the attractiveness of newspapers, some newspapers even paid the price of distortion. At that time, people in the press unilaterally believed that the more thrilling and bizarre it was, the more newsworthy it was. Therefore, during the Republic of China, unconventional social news topics were common in Shijiazhuang newspapers, some of which were simply to cater to them.

　　The general public class people’s curiosity reading preferences, and some also published some "articles touting celebrities or prostitutes." In 1933, in order to attract the public’s attention, Shimen Daily held the first evaluation of famous prostitutes in Shimen, and selected 12 famous prostitutes in Shimen, including President of Huaguo, Vice President of Huaguo, based on flowers, Baoxing, Venus, Silver Star, Red Star, Yellow Star, Blue Star, White Star, Purple Star and Yaxing. In the news published in the newspaper, many reports are about cases of theft, hooliganism, drug abuse, gambling and assassination in urban society.

　　In the Business Daily in 1930s, you can often see reports of social disputes and lawsuits such as Why Hit a Woman in the Face Again, Son Fraudulent Mother, A Girl’s Weird Behaviour Senses Tourists, How can a Crazy Woman Make a scene in Wu Gong Temple, and Coal-black Staging of Men’s and Women’s Martial Arts Drama. In order to pursue the news attraction, newspapers are inevitably mixed with mud and sand, which seriously pollutes the social and cultural air. Therefore, during the Republic of China, all kinds of newspapers in Shijiazhuang generally had the characteristics of "except exaggeration and distortion, they are dazzling".

　　When running a newspaper in vernacular Chinese, use the comma to the end.

　　In the early 1930s, Shimen Daily was published in four editions, the first edition was news, the second edition was a serial of novels, the third edition was a supplement and the fourth edition was social news. Zheng Yan Bao also has four editions, but the layout is slightly different. The second edition is a supplement and the third edition is a special supplement.

　　In the late 1930s, Shimen New Newspaper was published in folio every day. Later, due to a slight shortage of paper sources, it was changed to folio every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday, and folio every Monday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. The first edition is news, the second edition is local news, the third edition is local news, and the fourth edition is a supplement. After the victory of the Anti-Japanese War, the first edition of Shimen Daily is news and editorials at home and abroad, the second edition is social news of this city, the third edition is a supplement, and the fourth edition is an advertisement. Awakening People Daily, founded in 1945, is also a tabloid with four editions and four editions, without its own characteristics.

　　In 1928, the National Government stipulated the unified use of punctuation marks. Since then, Shijiazhuang newspapers and periodicals have been founded, and all of them are in ordinary vernacular, so it is not difficult to read broken sentences. However, the general use of punctuation in newspapers is often a tease to the end, with commas in the whole paragraph, or a sentence to the end, or a full stop in the whole paragraph. From the aspect of layout design, the first edition of the newspaper has 14 columns, each column is 120 lines with 10 words in each row. Most newspapers have always been mechanical and lack artistry, and the text is arranged vertically from right to left. At that time, newspapers were all printed with movable type, and there was no paper type. When the type was continuously worn, the handwriting was often blurred and the printing quality was relatively poor. In the 1930s, some small newspapers often used different font sizes because of their incomplete font sizes. For example, titles of different sizes often appear in Business Daily, which seriously affects the aesthetic effect of the layout. After the 1940s, especially in some big newspapers, there have been obvious changes in newspaper type, edition number, opening, layout arrangement, edition design, title making and so on.

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(reporting)

Portulaca oleracea, a common wild vegetable, has been eaten in Chinese for a long time. At the same time, purslane is also a traditional Chinese medicine, which has the effects of clearing away heat and promoting diuresis, detoxifying and reducing swelling, and is a plant that can be used as medicine and food.

In modern nutrition, purslane is rich in dihydroxyethylamine, calcium, iron, phosphorus, carotene, vitamin C, selenium, Omega-3 fatty acids and other nutrients. There are still some claims that purslane can prevent cancer.

Can purslane prevent cancer?

In January, 2020, the Journal of Oncology of Traditional Chinese Medicine published a paper on cancer prevention of Portulaca oleracea L., taking mice as experimental objects, the paper established a model of lung metastasis of liver cancer in mice, and Portulaca oleracea L. formula granules were used as drugs.

The experimental results showed that the inhibition rate of high-dose Portulaca oleracea group was 54.15%, and that of low-dose Portulaca oleracea group was 30.72%. The results suggested that Portulaca oleracea could inhibit lung metastasis of liver cancer, and the experiment showed that Portulaca oleracea had certain influence on metabolism of mice.

This shows that Portulaca oleracea has a certain anti-cancer effect in animal research. However, we can’t think that eating Portulaca oleracea every day can prevent cancer. On the contrary, we need to know that the anticancer effect of Portulaca oleracea has been confirmed in animal research, which doesn’t mean that it has the same effect in human research. Animal experiments have limitations, and human experiments lack effective and rigorous case studies, so it is not advisable to eat Portulaca oleracea in large quantities for the purpose of preventing cancer.

Portulaca oleracea has many wonderful uses.

Although the anti-cancer effect of purslane on people is not clear, eating purslane still has many benefits.

According to Compendium of Materia Medica, purslane has the effects of clearing away heat and toxic materials, attacking blood and reducing swelling. Portulaca oleracea also contains potassium salt, which has the effects of lowering blood pressure, slowing heart rate and protecting the heart.

In addition, Portulaca oleracea has a strong inhibitory effect on Shigella dysenteriae, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and other bacteria, so it is also known as "natural antibiotic".

Eating purslane is particular,

These taboos can’t be touched

Although eating purslane has many benefits, some people are not suitable for eating it. For example, pregnant women, purslane cold, has obvious stimulation to the uterus, and will also accelerate the frequency of contractions. Pregnant women may have the risk of premature delivery and abortion when eating purslane, so pregnant women should not eat purslane.

People with spleen and stomach deficiency and cold had better not eat or eat more. Portulaca oleracea is cold, and people with deficiency of spleen and stomach will aggravate the cold, especially those with diarrhea. It is best not to eat Portulaca oleracea to avoid aggravating diarrhea.

In addition, purslane should not be eaten with turtle shell as much as possible. It is recorded in the Classic of Materia Medica that the horse’s teeth can’t be mixed with turtle shell, which is a traditional Chinese medicine blindly and conflicts with purslane in terms of medicinal properties. Therefore, when eating purslane, don’t drink Chinese medicine with turtle shell at the same time, and it is best not to eat it with turtle meat at the same time.

Portulaca oleracea practice sharing

After talking about the benefits and precautions of purslane, let’s share some practices of purslane with you.

Portulaca oleracea

In hot summer, it is most suitable for cold salad. Because purslane is rich in oxalic acid, it can be blanched in boiling water for half a minute to one minute before cooking, and oxalic acid and other organic acids can be separated out to reduce the sour taste caused by oxalic acid.

After blanching, you can add salt, minced garlic, soy sauce, sesame oil or your favorite seasoning and mix well. Those who like peppers can put a little pepper, which is more appetizing and refreshing.

Purslane porridge

Put a proper amount of japonica rice in a pot, add clear water and bring it to a boil. After boiling, turn to low heat and cook for 30 minutes until the porridge becomes thicker. Wash the purslane with clear water and cut it into sections, then put it in the porridge and cook for 5 to 10 minutes. Then add salt and mix well to turn off the heat.

It is best to cook porridge in casserole. The porridge cooked in casserole is better than the porridge cooked in ordinary pot. If it is too troublesome to cook porridge, you can cook it in an electric rice cooker or other appliances that can be used to cook porridge, and add purslane in the middle.

Stir-fried purslane

Wash Portulaca oleracea in clean water, blanch it in boiling water for 5 minutes, then take it out and drain it, put a proper amount of oil in the wok, add minced garlic and stir-fry until fragrant, add bean paste and soy sauce, pour the processed Portulaca oleracea into the wok and stir-fry it evenly, and add a little salt before taking it out.

In a word, Portulaca oleracea has the effects of clearing away heat and toxic materials, cooling blood and reducing swelling, but its anticancer effect is still in the exploratory stage, and it is not suitable for long-term or large-scale eating because of its cold nature, and it is not suitable for people with spleen and stomach deficiency and pregnant women.

References:

[1]. Metabonomics analysis of Portulaca oleracea L. regulating lung metastasis of human hepatocellular carcinoma cells in nude mice. Journal of Oncology of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 2020,2 (1): 62-69.

[2]. Natural antibiotic-purslane. People’s Daily. 2019-8-2.

[3]. The medicinal value of purslane recommended by Chinese medicine is called "natural antibiotic". Yangzi Evening News .2009-6-1.

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　　CCTV News:Not long ago (March 25), the traffic police in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province stopped a young man who was riding a retrograde bicycle while investigating traffic violations. Who knows, the young man suddenly collapsed after making a phone call.

　　Fu Chaogang, police officer of Hangzhou Traffic Police Culture and Education Squadron: "His mood was relatively calm at first, and then he took a phone call. After answering the phone, his mood suddenly came out of generate."

　　A young man riding a retrograde bike: "I’m really sorry. It’s the first time I’ve done this kind of thing. I’ve been urging me to leave quickly. I have something to do when I go back after working overtime. Please, let me do anything. Please, I will pay the fine, and I can give you my ID card. I beg you to let me go. I dare not, I am bored, I don’t want it. "

　　Fu Chaogang, police officer of Hangzhou Traffic Police Culture and Education Squadron: "This young man gave a cry and ran to the bridge. Our first reaction was whether this young man had any suicidal thoughts. We immediately ran over and stopped him."

　　(people’s) police/policeman: "calm down, it’s nothing."

　　A young man riding a retrograde bikeI’m crazy. I’m under great pressure. I work overtime until eleven or twelve every day. My girlfriend didn’t bring the key and asked me to send it. I really don’t want to do this.

　　(people’s) police/policeman: "Here’s your ID card. Would you hurry to deliver the key?"

　　A young man riding a retrograde bike"I don’t, I just want to cry."

　　Policeman: "Where do you work? It’s okay for you to vent. We can all watch over you. You are stressed and normal. It’s okay to vent. If you vent normally, you can cry if you want. "

　　Fu Chaogang, police officer of Hangzhou Traffic Police Culture and Education SquadronAfter listening to what he told us, I put myself in another’s shoes. Now many people in society are under great pressure, and it is inevitable that their emotions will get out of control. Therefore, we want to sit on the ground and communicate with him intimately, and listen to him tell his own things like friends. I think this will make him feel much better. "

　　(people’s) police/policeman: "The most important thing is to adjust yourself. If you feel tired, take time off. Isn’t going to work for your own life?"

　　A young man riding a retrograde bike: "Go to work, I’m sorry for you. If it weren’t for you, I’d really feel bad. I really need to vent."

　　After the persuasion and companionship of the traffic police, the young man’s mood slowly calmed down and accepted the punishment of the traffic police.

　　Auxiliary Police: "Put your ID card in your pocket first, and then don’t drop it. It will be very troublesome to make it up."

　　A young man riding a retrograde bike: "Thank you for stopping my car."

　　Auxiliary Police: "Sit here and have a rest first."

　　A young man riding a retrograde bike: "I’m sorry, I usually hate others retrograde. I really can’t help it today. I am urging here and urging there. I originally wanted to go there. "

　　Auxiliary Police: "If you are tired, please take a vacation and have a rest. People should combine work and rest, grasp it well and pay attention to safety."

　　Young man answers the reason of emotional breakdown online

　　After this incident was fermented on the Internet, it triggered a heated discussion among netizens. Many people said that they can understand the young man’s feelings. What was the situation at that time that led to such a big mood fluctuation of the young man?

　　After the incident, the young man who rode retrograde answered the reason for his emotional breakdown on the Internet. He wrote, "I promised my girlfriend to have dinner together that day, and she didn’t bring the key." At that time, preparing for the launch of new projects needed joint debugging, and my colleagues were still waiting for me, so I was excited for a while. "

　　The young man also attributed everything to himself, and further explained that "my girlfriend didn’t do anything wrong, because she had been waiting for me for twenty minutes, so I was particularly anxious." "I was afraid of being seen by the boss, but the boss had already seen it. He didn’t blame me, but invited me to drink after work that day, saying that the pressure should not be so great, and I should rest when I have a rest." "I thank the traffic police for their help. I’m sorry for the trouble."

　　Between the lines, the young man is expressing his apologies and thanks to everyone involved. The doctor believes that the young man need not blame himself too much, because many people will encounter the reasons that induce his emotional collapse.

　　Hu Jianbo, Deputy Director of Mental Health Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine"When several things happen at the same time and a choice must be made, we will be in an anxious state, so that when he encounters an emergency, he will suddenly blow his original cognition or this decision to a state of emotional collapse."

　　At the same time, Dr. Hu pointed out that at the turn of spring and summer, people’s emotions are easily affected by endocrine and metabolic changes. It is very important to accept, release and re-recognize negative emotions when the pressure is too great and the mood is unstable.

　　Event online fermentation netizens "empathize"

　　After the matter was fermented on the Internet, most netizens said it was understandable and even "empathetic". Many people think of the days they have experienced, and many people give advice to the young man on how to release the pressure. It was also observed that the young man didn’t say a word of dirty words within more than ten minutes of this incident, despite his extreme emotional collapse, which shows that he is still trying to restrain himself. Fu Chaogang, a traffic policeman in Hangzhou, has been quietly paying attention to the young man’s condition after the incident. Until he saw the young man’s post, his hanging heart was finally put down. Fu Chaogang wrote in his circle of friends, "I see that you are very good and strong, and your boss is also very good. I hope you can grow up. The whole Weibo is comforting you, including me. Live a good life, treat your loved ones well and work hard. Compare your heart. "

　　Fu Chaogang, police officer of Hangzhou Traffic Police Culture and Education Squadron: "I hope that through so many people caring for him and comforting him, he can feel the warmth of this society, and there is nothing he can’t pass."

On November 15th, Guoya was officially listed at Guangzhou Auto Show. The guiding price of V6 version is 1.4 million yuan, and that of V8 version is 1.8 million yuan. The new car is equipped with a straight waterfall net, and the side of the car is decorated with a large number of chrome trim strips. The overall outline is similar to that of Bentley Feichi, and the length of the car is over 5.3 meters, which is larger than Bentley Feichi. Adopt China independent V6 TD/V8 TD+ independent electronic control system+intelligent four-wheel drive system, and support active steering of 18 rear wheels.

The audience said that Guoya’s gas field, configuration and texture are full, and the new car will be the pride of the country after it is equipped with the state guest team in the future.

Hongqi Guoya adopts a two-color body design, incorporating more rounded lines, using a unique hollowed-out design in the front enclosure, with a raised chrome decoration in the middle of the hood, and a lifting red flag brand logo on the front of the car, which supports lighting. The window is decorated with chrome, and there is a chrome-plated decorative strip under the door.

The interior details of Hongqi Guoya car adopt Chinese style design elements, and are equipped with the same auxiliary ring horn as the early Hongqi. The new car is equipped with a flexible scroll central control panel, a row of physical buttons below the central control panel, and a gear shifting mechanism. The car is decorated with a large number of solid wood plaques and equipped with double frames. The steering wheel is inlaid with sunflower LOGO in the middle, and the whole system comes standard with L2-level assisted driving.

The maximum power of Hongqi Guoya 3.0T HEV model is 290kW, and that of 4.0T HEV model is 360kW, matching with 8AT gearbox, with fuel consumption of 8.2L/100km and 8.8L/100km per 100km.

[The way to understand cars, products] Recently, the way to understand cars was learned that Dongfeng Yipai eπ 008 was officially released on the market, and a total of 2 models were launched.Both are priced at 216,600 yuanThe limited-time equity price of the new car is 188,600 yuan. Next, let’s take a look at the product power of the new car.

In appearance, the overall aura of Dongfeng Yipai e π 008 is relatively strong. The new car adopts a large number of new energy styling designs, the hood has multiple ribs, sharp headlights, LED light sources inside, and is equipped with a through daytime running light belt. The brand LOGO is inlaid in the middle, the lower air intake grille is a trapezoidal air intake grille, and the front lip is relatively flat. The new car design is very original and full of aura.

To the side of the body, the roof is straight, the side is full of power, suspended windows, the top of the body is equipped with a luggage rack, the front and rear windows are relatively large, and the transparency is better. The waist line runs through the body, and a hidden door handle is used.

In terms of body size, the length, width and height of the new car are 5002/1972/1732mm, the wheelbase is 3025mm, the approach angle is 21 °, and the departure angle is 22 °. Overall, the new car has good passability.

At the rear of the car body, the top is equipped with a high spoiler, the tail window has a little inclination, and it is equipped with a through taillight. Under the left taillight is the "Dongfeng" logo, and under the right taillight is the "eπ 008" logo. The full rear is surrounded by a hidden exhaust pipe.

In terms of interior, the minimalist style is the main one, the dual-width steering wheel is designed with a wedge type, and the interior workmanship and materials are very solid. In terms of intelligence, it is equipped with a full LCD instrument panel + 15.6-inch central control screen, which is rich in apps, using Qualcomm Snapdragon 8155 chip, equipped with mobile phone wireless charging, and open armrest box.

Adopting a 6-seat layout of 2 + 2 + 2, it offers a car refrigerator, foldable LCD screen, small table board, refrigerator, electric rear seats, etc. The second row of seats is very luxurious, and the second row of central aisles is wide, making it easy to enter the third row.

In terms of power, the range extension model is equipped with a 1.5T turbocharged engine as a range extender, with a maximum engine power of 108kW. It is equipped with a lithium iron phosphate battery pack from Zhongchuang Xinhang, with a pure electric battery life of 154km and a comprehensive battery life of more than 1300km.

Pure electric model, the maximum power of a single motor is 200kW, using Dongyu Xinsheng’s lithium iron phosphate battery pack, with a cruising range of 636km.

The editor has something to say:

Dongfeng Yipai eπ 008 has been released and listed. The price of the new car is attractive, and the new car technology is rich in configuration, large space, and provides a variety of power combinations, allowing users to have more choices. We will wait and see the performance of the new car market. Regarding the dynamic experience of the new car, we have already commented on the test drive. If you want to know more about the new car information and the car purchase market, please leave a message to interact. Everyone must consume rationally when buying a car. (Photo/text/photo: The way to understand cars, Wang Bin, editor)

Under the "new four modernizations" wave, intelligent technology, information technology and the automobile industry are deeply integrated, and the automobile industry structure is also undergoing subversive changes. The era of "software-defined vehicles" has arrived. In the new environment, how to stand out in the fierce competition and achieve butterfly change has become an important issue for car companies.

For Changan Automobile, relying on the third entrepreneurship – innovation and entrepreneurship plan, the new energy "Shangri-La Plan" and the intelligent "Beidou Tianshu Plan" are accelerating the transformation into "intelligent low-carbon travel technology companies". And through continuous transformation and breakthroughs, Changan has entered the "most long-term" state, making breakthroughs in multiple aspects such as brand, technology and products.

Now, while the transformation has been achieved, the new digital brand, known as the "jewel" in the crown of Shangri-La in Changan, has also arrived. After the brand launch, the debut of the first model and the pre-sale, its first model SL03 is finally unveiled.

On July 25th, SL03 was officially launched. The new car was built on the EPA1 pure electric platform, and a total of 4 models were launched, including pure electric version, extended range version, and hydrogen fuel cell version. Among them, the main pure electric and extended range models are priced at 168,900-215,900 yuan after comprehensive subsidies; the hydrogen fuel cell version guide price is 699,900 yuan (adjusted according to local government subsidies).

It is worth mentioning that after the listing, the new car will fully adopt the new retail model of "online and offline integration, direct connection, direct collection of vehicles, and consistent price" to provide users with one-stop service guarantee.

In Changan Automobile’s opinion, the SL03, as the first strategic model of the Deep Blue brand, not only has the ultimate sports appearance and simple technology interior, but also is equipped with a number of world premieres and industry-leading mass-produced technologies, achieving three super breakthroughs in the fields of intelligence, battery life, and three electric vehicles. It will surely bring users a new experience of subverting the past and open up a new era of electric vehicles.

Bring a full-scene cockpit to reach the future with intelligence

Changan Deep Blue is positioned as a digital intelligent electric brand, symbolizing exploration, life, technology and the future. The first model SL03 is the brand’s current thinking for the future. The brand is committed to bringing users a convenient digital travel experience through super intelligence.

Specifically, in addition to the closed front face designed based on an efficient thermal management system, the aerodynamic design of the suspended rear wing, the hidden door handle + frameless door, the 19-inch star-shaped closed wheel hub, and the star energy petal daytime running lights and star flame through the tail lights, etc., SL03 also creates a multi-sensory, full-scene intelligent cockpit for users.

According to reports, the new car is the world’s first 8-core high computing power super car chip 1.2.1 baseline and Android 11 operating system production models, the chip uses 7nm process technology, has more computing units and stronger processor performance, computing speed up to 3.60 million times/second, car RAM memory up to 12G, ROM memory up to 128G.

Based on the powerful underlying capabilities, the SL03 smart cockpit has unlimited functions and scene expansion capabilities, supports Bluetooth/NFC non-inductive cabin, 3D holographic face login and other functions, and will also provide 10 full cockpit scenarios including privacy mode, thermostatic cockpit, and nap mode. Whether it is daily commuting, friends’ gatherings, or family outings, you can find the right choice.

It is worth mentioning that the SL03 is also equipped with an AR-HUD, with an imaging interface equivalent to a 61-inch screen with an imaging distance of 8.5 meters in front. Through deep integration with intelligent driving and in-vehicle systems, the main driver’s field of vision is transformed into a smart information screen that integrates technology, safety, and entertainment. Users can learn basic information about road conditions without deflecting their eyes during driving, making it more convenient and safe.

In addition to that, the 14.6-inch sunflower screen can automatically deflect left and right 15 degrees with the driver, and the screen display function can be seen. The voice system supports continuous dialogue and fuzzy semantic recognition, navigation, listening to music, temperature adjustment, and other vehicle controls, providing users with intelligent travel services with temperature.

Digital travel experience makes driving more comfortable

As a dedicated platform developed by Changan Automobile after 5 years of dedication, taking into account the future travel prospects and today’s car experience, the EPA1 all-electric digital platform has the attributes of high efficiency, high performance, high intelligence and high safety. Thanks to the blessing of the platform, in addition to the all-electric attribute, SL03 will also bring users a convenient digital travel experience through super intelligence.

In terms of intelligent driving, the SL03 is equipped with more than a dozen intelligent driving assistance systems, including six ultrasonic radars, three millimeter-wave radars, and six high-performance cameras, which not only provide clearer imaging and higher positioning accuracy, but also further enhance the safety of the entire vehicle.

In terms of configuration, all models of the new car are equipped with integrated adaptive IACC, and all models are equipped with intelligent driving auxiliary features such as lane change assistance, intelligent panoramic images, and AEB automatic emergency braking as standard, which can liberate both feet within the allowable range of road conditions and assist users to always pay attention to road conditions, making driving easier.

At the same time, SL03 will also launch the APA7.0 remote valet parking system. After subscribing to this service, the vehicle will be upgraded to 34 sensing and sensing hardware. Under the premise of meeting relevant national regulations, memory parking, remote parking, and remote parking can be realized in the main user usage scenarios.

According to reports, models that support the subscription of NID3.0 Pilot intelligent driving assistance service and APA7.0 remote valet parking service will be available for booking from the date of listing, and delivery and open service subscriptions are expected to start one after another after December 31.

On the basis of digital and intelligent travel experience, SL03 has also achieved a breakthrough in battery life. Under CLTC conditions, the pure electric version provides two versions: 515km and 705km. Among them, the 515 battery life version can reach a maximum power of more than 190kW, and the power consumption can be as low as 12.3kWh/100km, which is almost the same as the minimum power consumption level of Tesla Model 300 kilometers.

At the same time, under CLTC conditions, the SL03 extended range version has a comprehensive battery life of more than 1200km and a pure electric battery life of more than 200km, and the fuel consumption of the feeder can be as low as 4.5L/100km, eliminating mileage anxiety and making travel more free. In addition, the hydrogen electric version of the model can reach 730km with full hydrogen and full power, and the hydrogen consumption of the feeder can be as low as 0.65kg/100km. It can also achieve 3 minutes of ultra-fast energy replenishment, empowering green travel.

Three electric technology breakthroughs, technology-driven products

In addition to smart technology being armed to the teeth, the Deep Blue brand has also achieved breakthroughs in the three-power field, the core of new energy vehicles.

Specifically, the SL03 is equipped with Changan’s new generation of super-set electric drive. Through the deep integration of All in One, the effective utilization rate of vehicle space and weight has been improved, and the design concept of taking into account all-electric and rear drive has been realized, meeting the travel needs of users in different scenarios. It has also achieved more than 95% of the highest system efficiency, leading the industry average.

On the basis of the superset electric drive, the SL03 also supports the world’s first micronucleus high-frequency pulse heating technology, which allows users to start at home with one click through the mobile APP to achieve extremely fast heating at ultra-low temperatures. There is no need to wait for winter travel, and there is no need to worry about problems such as weak start, sluggish power response, and difficult acceleration. This greatly alleviates the experience of electric vehicles in extremely cold weather.

In terms of battery safety, which consumers are more concerned about, Deep Blue aims to protect personal safety and has developed the iBC digital battery butler system based on the EPA1 platform. Through the two types of digital pre-control management technology groups and the seven types of digital temperature control management technology groups, it has realized the concept of battery butler and fully protected travel safety.

In addition to that, Deep Blue is also equipped with the first intelligent vehicle domain controller "Changan Smart Core" in China, which integrates more than 1,500 core devices, and can realize the rapid upgrade of vehicle control software OTA in 3 minutes, providing users with more accurate remote diagnosis, more efficient energy management strategy and more accurate mileage calculation services.

In addition to the three major breakthroughs in the field of intelligence, battery life and three electricity, SL03 also has 0.23Cd ultra-low wind resistance, forest air purification system, 5.9s 100 kilometers acceleration, V2L external discharge and other values, and has experienced tens of millions of kilometers of reliability special project verification. It can be seen that in the new era of software-defined vehicles, SL03 is obviously ready.

"What is more futuristic than technology is imagination, and what is more futuristic than imagination is’Changan Deep Blue ‘." In the official view of Changan Automobile, through new brands, new platforms, new technologies, new products and new services, the Deep Blue brand has shaped the value benchmark of the 200,000-class pure electric car market, and will further expand the market space of the new energy industry and open a new era of Chinese electric vehicle brands.

Using the "Internet +" approach to "connect everything" is the key word of Tencent in 2015. Behind the dazzling investment is a major change in Tencent’s overall strategy.

"This is the conclusion we have drawn from our painful experience over the past few years." Pony Ma, chairperson and chief executive of Tencent, said that in the past two years, Tencent has made a lot of subtractions of its own business, focusing on the most core communication and social platforms, content games and other businesses, and handing over the rest to partners. "I like the saying of’half life ‘for myself, and giving the other half to partners, so that an ecosystem will be formed."

Tencent is gradually becoming an open organization without borders. According to Pony Ma, not only Tencent, but also BAT heroes have the same vision and are working in this direction. "Tencent went a little earlier, but it just hit a wall earlier and changed it earlier."

Key words: "cell-level" connectivity

Reporter: How do you see the development of China’s Internet in this year? How did Tencent perform in it?

Ma Ma: This year, "Internet +" and "entrepreneurship and innovation" have become hot words, and the O2O field has set off a wave of entrepreneurship.

In the future, if an enterprise cannot achieve "cell-level connection" with individual users through "Internet +", it will be like a living body whose nerve endings are numb and limbs are disconnected, and it will definitely face survival challenges.

Connecting individual consumers dynamically with producers and service providers in real time is a new "cellular" way of connecting, allowing entrepreneurs to discover a wealth of new opportunities. In August, the number of applications on Tencent’s open API exceeded 4 million, an increase of nearly 70% from the same period last year. At the same time, this entrepreneurial boom is penetrating from first- and second-tier cities to third- and fourth-tier cities.

Recently, Boston Consulting Group released a report on the world’s most innovative companies, and Tencent was honored to rank first in China and 12th in the world. In my opinion, this is more exciting than the ranking of the company’s market value. From scale to innovation, on the surface, it is the development trajectory of our company. In fact, this reflects the innovation opportunities fostered by China’s "Internet Plus". It is our partners, including government entities, who are innovating with us.

　Key words: entrepreneurship

Reporter: The Internet field is active in investment and financing, making it the first choice for many young people to start their own businesses. What advice do you have for young people who are committed to it?

Ma Ma: "Internet +" is giving birth to a large number of new business models and startups. They have dug deep into many vertical segments of traditional industries, and may grow many promising companies. More and more young people, not just simply enjoy internet services, but begin to unleash their enthusiasm, imagination and creativity on the Internet, and use the power of Internet platforms and social networking to release their personal talents.

Compared with 17 years ago when we started our business, it cannot be said that today’s entrepreneurship has become easier to succeed, but with the help of the new tool of the Internet, the threshold and cost of entrepreneurship are significantly reduced. As a result, entrepreneurs can obtain a good infrastructure, such as a stable back office on Tencent Open API, convenient online payment tools, secure network environment, cloud storage and computing power, and even a venture capital fund of up to 100 billion yuan. From this perspective, now may be a good time for personal entrepreneurship.

Key word: openness

Reporter: During this year, Tencent has had a series of collaborations and investments. How do you perceive these cross-border collaborations?

Pony Ma: In the past two years, Tencent has made a lot of subtractions of its own business, focusing on the core communication and social platforms, content games and other businesses, and handed over the rest to partners. This is the conclusion we have come to through years of painful experience. We will firmly be the best partner for all entrepreneurs.

I like to keep the "half life" for myself, and give the other "half life" to partners, so that an ecosystem will be formed. Tencent’s open API now has millions of partners and hundreds of millions of users. It is difficult to say that today’s Tencent is just Tencent itself, and the enterprise is gradually becoming an open organization without borders.

Now many domestic ecological companies, including the three BAT companies, are working hard in this regard, which can be said to be the same as the heroes. Tencent went a little earlier, but it just hit the wall earlier and changed it earlier. I believe everyone will open up. Whether it is open data, cloud platforms, or providing connectivity, we all want to connect more information islands to our respective ecosystems, so that more traditional industries can coexist and develop in this system, so that users in their respective ecosystems can obtain a higher quality of life. This is healthy competition. To see who does better, the more sticky and user base the ecosystem will be.

Key word: self-discipline

Reporter: Many people believe that China’s Internet does not respect rules, does not pay attention to intellectual property protection, and is not conducive to the development of innovative companies. Do you agree with this statement?

Pony Ma: China’s Internet has developed to the present, from a complete disorderly lack of attention to intellectual property rights to an increasing emphasis on intellectual property rights. Although the problem has not been completely solved, it has obviously improved. Only in this way can the entire business model take shape.

Take the digital content industry as an example. At present, the Internet industry continues to increase investment in the procurement of copyright content and self-produced content, forming a benign industrial ecological chain with the traditional cultural industry. The Internet is becoming the preferred channel for the distribution of cultural content due to its advantages of high efficiency, low cost, and green environmental protection. It also enables some lesser-known niche works to find suitable consumption objects, ensuring the recovery of their creative costs.

From Tencent’s experience, on the one hand, Chinese Internet companies need to further change their business philosophy, increase the procurement of genuine content and original content, and constantly innovate their business models to achieve the good operation of the genuine operation model. On the other hand, Internet companies can rely on their respective technical advantages and platform management advantages to develop corresponding copyright management systems and copyright self-service complaint platforms for different business models and network platforms, so that creators can use Internet technology to deal with online piracy. (Reporter, Zhan Lihua)