In August, CPI is still in the second era, and the increase in pork prices is difficult to cause the overall price increase.

On September 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) in August, among which the data related to pork price was concerned by the market. On the same day, the Beijing News reporter visited a vegetable market near the Second Ring Road in the southwest and found that the price of lean pork was about 25 yuan/kg, while the price of pork ribs was about 32 yuan/kg.

The data shows that from the ring comparison, the CPI rose by 0.7%, with an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, while the price of pork rose by 23.1% due to tight supply, with an increase of 15.3 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.62 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.8%, the same as last month, while pork prices rose by 46.7%, an increase of 19.7 percentage points over last month.

Zhu Danpeng, a food industry analyst in China, said in an interview with the Beijing News today that the stock of live pigs in China has reached a historical low due to the African swine fever, and the supply of live pigs cannot meet the market demand, so the price of live pigs has risen. As one of the main food sources for residents, the price increase of pork has raised the whole food price.

Liu Yuanchun, vice-president of China Renmin University, said that the single factor of pork itself is difficult to cause the overall price increase, especially in the macro environment where the downward pressure on the economy is increasing.

It is noteworthy that in order to control the pork price increase, various ministries and local governments have recently taken a number of "real money and silver" hard measures. According to the incomplete statistics of the Beijing News reporter, up to now, many departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and other regulatory agencies have successively issued preferential policies related to the pig industry, covering financial support, breeding subsidies, transportation support and land use support.

Will the continuous rise in pork prices lead to an overall increase in prices?

It is difficult for a single factor to cause the overall price increase.

Judging from the data, pork prices are still rising in August. From the ring comparison, the supply of pork was tight, and the price rose by 23.1%, an increase of 15.3 percentage points over the previous month; From a year-on-year perspective, pork prices rose by 46.7%, an increase of 19.7 percentage points over the previous month.

The rise in pork prices is accompanied by consumers’ concerns about the overall price increase. In this regard, Liu Yuanchun said in an interview with the Beijing News reporter that the rise in pork prices was not only today, but also in China from 2006 to 2008 and around 2010.

Liu Yuanchun further analyzed that the rise of pig cycle and sudden factors including epidemic situation will lead to the rise of pork prices, but the single factor of pork itself is difficult to cause the overall price rise, especially in the macro environment where the downward pressure on the economy is increasing.

Liu Yuanchun stressed, "So the pork problem we are facing now is the pork problem, which has nothing to do with inflation. You don’t have to worry about inflation."

Many ministries and commissions have jointly taken measures to stabilize pig prices.

There is a one-time subsidy for new breeding pig farms, with a minimum of 500,000.

In order to control the rising price of pork, recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce and other regulatory agencies, such as China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, have successively issued preferential policies related to the pig industry, covering financial support, breeding subsidies, transportation support, land use support and other aspects.

Among them, there are still some support policies that come up with "real money and silver". For example, on September 9, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and the General Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Investment Arrangement of Stabilizing Pig Production in the Central Budget, clearly stating that the investment in the Central Budget will provide one-time subsidies for the construction, renovation and expansion of breeding farms and large-scale pig farms (households) before the end of 2020, and the reconstruction of large-scale pig farms (households) in prohibited areas, mainly supporting the construction of large-scale pig farms and breeding farms, animal epidemic prevention, manure treatment and breeding environment control. According to the regulations, the proportion of central subsidy shall not exceed 30% of the total investment of the project in principle, with a minimum of 500,000 yuan and a maximum of 5 million yuan.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Era Securities, told the Beijing News reporter that the performance of aquaculture enterprises is still worrying this year due to the large loss of swine fever in Africa. "Therefore, the best way to avoid the continuous high price of pork at present is to restore production capacity as soon as possible, that is, to mobilize the enthusiasm of aquaculture enterprises to resume production. The policy issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is to encourage pig breeding through subsidies. With subsidies, farmers will lose less and have the enthusiasm to continue production."

It is noteworthy that China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently issued a relevant notice, saying that it will increase credit support. Banking financial institutions should further increase their support for the pig industry. For breeding pig farms (local pig breeding farms), pig scale farms and slaughtering and processing enterprises that meet the credit conditions but temporarily encounter operational difficulties, it is necessary to do a good job in related financial services, and it is not allowed to blindly limit loans, draw loans or cut off loans.

Pan Xiangdong told the Beijing News reporter that the recovery of pig production capacity needs a cycle. Although the pig price is high, due to the large loss of African swine fever, aquaculture enterprises have suffered serious losses. If financing support is not provided, the current piglet price will rise too fast, and there is no market for it, and the cost of resuming production is very high. At the same time, the outbreak of African swine fever and the resumption of production also bear risks, and it is difficult for aquaculture enterprises to get motivated to resume production. "Do a good job in related financial services, and don’t blindly limit loans, draw loans, and break loans, which is conducive to encouraging large-scale pig raising and suppressing the speed of pig production capacity reduction as much as possible."

Beijing News reporter Pan Yichun Chen Peng

Editor Wang Yu proofreads Li Xiangling.