The price increase of waste paper continues： the recycling price has doubled compared with last year, far exceeding the waste steel.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the recycling price of waste newspapers has been going up step by step every month. According to a survey conducted by Beijing Youth Daily, compared with the second half of last year, the recycling price per kilogram of waste paper in the community has doubled, and major paper mills have raised the purchase price of waste paper almost every month this year. In this regard, industry analysts believe that the main reasons for the price increase of waste newspapers are "firstly, the state prohibits the import of waste paper, and secondly, the government controls the environmental pollution of paper-making enterprises."

　　Just halfway through October, the paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons has raised prices twice, and major paper mills have followed suit quickly. According to the investigation of Beijing Youth Daily reporter, the waste newspaper per kilogram in the community has far exceeded the waste steel. Is it possible for this wave of price increases since the second half of last year to come to an end in the fourth quarter of this year?

　　survey

　　The price of used newspapers has doubled compared with last year

　　Since the beginning of this year, the price of waste newspapers has been going up step by step every month. Many families are not aware of it, but the vendors who recycle waste are well aware of it. The recycling price of newspapers per kilogram is twice as high as that of recycled scrap steel. According to a survey conducted by the reporter of Beiqing Daily, "Scrap steel is still 40 cents per kilogram, which is no change compared with the Spring Festival. But the waste newspapers are 1.2 yuan per kilogram; At least 20 cents more than the Spring Festival. "

　　Located in the neighborhood near China Communication University in the East Fifth Ring Road, a hawker who has been recycling waste products for three years told Beiqing Daily that at present, the waste paper box costs 80 cents per kilogram, which is 20 cents per kilogram; Old books are also at this price. Compared with the old newspapers, the price is higher, with a kilogram of 1.2 yuan, which is 20 cents higher than that in the first half of the year. If there are more newspapers, you can add one or two yuan. Compared with the second half of last year, the price per kilogram of waste paper has doubled.

　　The vendor also said that taking waste newspapers as an example, last year, every kilogram arrived at the acquisition station, and the other party’s acquisition price was 89 cents. He said that he mainly serves this community, and he won’t go anywhere far away, such as near the Sixth Ring Road, where there are newspapers in 1.4 yuan per kilogram. I heard that the farther away, the higher the price. "If someone has more waste newspapers, sometimes they are too lazy to calculate the details and give the seller two or three yuan more, which is also common."

　　In several communities investigated by reporters of Beiqing Daily, taking waste newspapers as an example, some communities classify cartons, books and newspapers and quote different prices, while others are uniform, each kilogram is about one yuan. Scrap steel is still not optimistic, with only forty or fifty cents per kilogram. However, hawkers can feel that it is more difficult to engage in waste recycling. Some small recycling stations have closed, and the news they heard is that environmental protection is not up to standard.

　　press sb for an interview

　　Prohibiting the import of waste paper pushes up the recycling price of waste paper.

　　It is understood that industry analysts believe that there are two main reasons for the price increase of waste newspapers. "The first is that the state prohibits the import of waste paper, and the second is that the government controls the environmental pollution of paper-making enterprises. Under the combined effect of these two factors, the price of waste recycling has risen."

　　According to professionals, for a long time, foreign waste paper has been favored by many domestic paper mills by virtue of its lower price and better quality. In mid-August this year, in the new version of the Catalogue of Imported Waste Management issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, unsorted waste paper has been adjusted from restricted import to prohibited import, and recycled (scrap) paper and cardboard have been included in the "prohibited list". In September this year, the average price of waste paper arrived at the factory was 2960 yuan/ton, compared with 1240 yuan/ton in the same period last year, with an increase rate of 139%.

　　From October 6th to 8th, 31 paper mills in China raised the purchase price of waste paper by 20% to 200 yuan per ton. Since the quality requirements of imported waste paper were tightened in August, the "waste paper shortage" has made the purchase price of domestic waste paper reach the highest value in nine years. According to the reporter of Beiqing Daily, since the beginning of this year, major paper mills have raised the purchase price of waste paper almost every month. Since the recycling price of waste newspapers has been rising all the way, it is inevitable to raise the price of paper.

　　affect

　　The paper giant raised prices twice in a month.

　　Industry insiders predict that as the supply and demand situation is difficult to change in the short term, it will enter the traditional peak season of e-commerce in the fourth quarter, and the paper price situation may become more severe.

　　Guo Yaping, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information Packaging Paper, said that the price of various kinds of paper rose after September last year, and the price of paper rose significantly in the fourth quarter of last year. In March of this year, the price of paper fell sharply, mainly due to the deviation of practitioners’ judgment on the later market. During the Spring Festival this year, some small and medium-sized paper enterprises started normally, which led to a substantial increase in the inventory of paper enterprises after the Spring Festival. However, paper prices began to enter the upward channel again in April, and paper prices rose sharply from August to September.

　　In August this year, most paper mills in China raised their prices three or four times. The base paper, including corrugated paper, whiteboard paper, household paper, newsprint and coated paper, rose from 300 yuan to 900 yuan per ton. In September, the national average price of corrugated paper exceeded 5,200 yuan/ton, up over 100% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in history.

　　In October, the paper company accelerated the price increase again. On September 21st, the paper giant Dongguan Nine Dragons issued a price increase notice in October. During the period from September 26th to October 10th, the cardboard, corrugated paper and paperboard of Dongguan Nine Dragons increased by 200 yuan -300 yuan/ton again. This is the fourth price adjustment notice issued by Nine Dragons in September this year. Then on October 11th, Dongguan Nine Dragons issued the second price increase notice again. From October 11th to October 20th, the cardboard, corrugated paper, recycled paper and white cattle card of Dongguan Nine Dragons increased by 100-200 yuan/ton again, and the price of white board remained unchanged. Then the major paper mills quickly followed suit.

　　analyse

　　Will paper prices continue to rise in the fourth quarter?

　　In view of the price trend of carton base paper in the middle and late October, there was a completely different pre-judgment. With the major paper mills raising prices twice in October, the bulls gained the upper hand.

　　According to industry insiders, according to this year’s environmental protection policy formulated by the state, there is still a lot of room for base paper to rise. With the soaring price of paper, the current industrial chain is in a low inventory state, and the supply continues to weaken. From the demand side, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season of the paper industry. In addition to the obvious increase in demand for holiday gift packaging, the e-commerce shopping festivals such as "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve" in the second half of the year stimulated the daily demand for one billion parcels, which made the market very excited. September to December is the stocking period and printing period of students’ teaching materials, and the demand for cultural paper will also increase greatly. The demand side is hard to find a piece of paper, but the supply side is stretched. Coupled with the increase in labor costs and the increase in waste paper recycling costs, it is not difficult to understand that the price of paper will rise in three days.

　　Chuancai Securities believes that due to the increase in environmental supervision, the reform of paper supply side has accelerated, small and medium-sized enterprises have been shut down due to environmental pressure, and the industry is facing capacity contraction. Therefore, the prices of major paper categories rose across the board in the first half of 2017, and the performance of the sector continued to improve. At the same time, the industry concentration has been improved, and leading enterprises have gained more market share. It is expected that the environmental protection will become stricter in the second half of the year, and the new capacity of the paper industry will be limited. Therefore, we will continue to be optimistic about the market of the paper sector, and the prosperity is expected to continue. Leading enterprises are expected to lead the industry because they have mastered more market share, and the profit momentum will remain strong in the second half of the year.

　　market

　　The leading share prices of paper industry have risen sharply.

　　Some organizations believe that with the continuous tightening of environmental protection policies, small and medium-sized paper enterprises will accelerate their integration in the next few years, and the advantages of large-scale paper enterprises’ production capacity will emerge. Leading paper enterprises will collectively raise prices when sales are gradually improving, driving the ex-factory price of related paper products to rise.

　　As of the close of October 13th, nine dragons paper, the leading stock of Hong Kong paper industry, had an annual increase of 125%. At present, the stock is consolidating at a high level between HK$ 15 and HK$ 18. The latest market value of nine dragons paper has reached HK$ 74.1 billion, the best share price since 2009. This year, not only did nine dragons paper’s share price outperform expectations, but the prices of its products also rose steadily. At the same time, the share prices of leading A-share paper companies have increased a lot this year, with Chenming Paper’s A-shares and H-shares as high as 81% and 85%, Bohui Paper’s 77%, Sun Paper’s 41% and shanying paper’s 36%.

　　On the evening of September 21st, nine dragons paper released its performance report from June 30th last year to June 30th this year. In fiscal year 2017, nine dragons paper recorded sales of RMB 39.155 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%; Gross profit was 7.976 billion, up 36.1% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.384 billion, up 290.79% year-on-year; Earnings per share is about 0.94 yuan and dividend payout ratio is 32%. Citigroup said that Nine Dragons’ performance exceeded expectations and maintained a "buy" rating; Nomura believes that the performance is in line with expectations and maintains a "buy" rating; JPMorgan Chase believes that nine dragons paper’s profitability is good, and the rating is "overweight".

　　Text/reporter Liu Shenliang